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Wage increase expectations aree way too high going by 10 year sovereign bond yields less than 1% and could increase unemployment

patslatt

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Wage increase expectations aree way too high going by 10 year sovereign bond yields less than 1% and could increase unemployment

If the bond markets are correctly predicting falling prices in the eurozone economy, some recent public sector pay demands in Ireland look extreme. The strike of semistate Luas drivers rejecting an 18% pay increase over three years was extreme, as is talk in political circles of restoration of insanely high Benchmarking pay and a huge increase in minimum wages. Given productivity increases in the Irish economy of about 1%, wages should increase by 1% plus the expected change in prices. Assuming a fall by 0.75% to 1% in prices in the eurozone going by sovereign bond yields, no increase in pay is justified but no increase would result in increased purchasing power of 1%. However, if pay does increase, unemployment will likely rise.

Bond yields of advanced economies are the best prediction of expected price changes and it is remarkable that yields may be predicting falling price levels in the eurozone economy. The 10 year government bonds of Germany, France and the Netherlands yield 0.01%, 0.42% and 0.25% respectively, suggesting prices will fall in the range of 0.75% to 1% a year. However, the European Central Bank's aggressive purchases of bonds in its QE programme may be depressing those bond yields below long term trend levels.
 
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SeanieFitz

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If the bond markets are correctly predicting falling prices in the eurozone economy, some recent public sector pay demands in Ireland look extreme. The strike of semistate Luas drivers rejecting an 18% pay increase over three years was extreme, as is talk in political circles of restoration of insanely high Benchmarking pay and a huge increase in minimum wages. Given productivity increases in the Irish economy of about 1%, wages should increase by 1% plus the expected change in prices. Assuming a fall by 0.75% to 1% in prices in the eurozone going by sovereign bond yields, no increase in pay is justified but no increase would result in increased purchasing power of 1%. However, if pay does increase, unemployment will likely rise.

Bond yields of advanced economies are the best prediction of expected price changes and it is remarkable that yields may be predicting falling price levels in the eurozone economy. At present, US Treasury 10 year inflation indexed bonds yield 0.12% a year,which suggests inflation of about 1% a year in the USA assuming investors expect a 1% real return after inflation. The 10 year government bonds of Germany, France and the Netherlands yield 0.01%, 0.42% and 0.25% respectively, suggesting prices will fall in the range of 0.75% to 1% a year. However, the European Central Bank's aggressive purchases of bonds in its QE programme may be depressing those bond yields below long term trend levels.
Yawn, get over it Pat, change the record, focus your energies on trying to resurrect your motivational dvd business

SIPTU alone has negotiated pay increases for their members with over 800 businesses/companies in the last 18 months, we are entering an era of pay increases and you will have to suck it up. Move on, get over it, you might even be successful (finally) in your efforts to get that clerical position in the civil service.
 

patslatt

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Yawn, get over it Pat, change the record, focus your energies on trying to resurrect your motivational dvd business

SIPTU alone has negotiated pay increases for their members with over 800 businesses/companies in the last 18 months, we are entering an era of pay increases and you will have to suck it up. Move on, get over it, you might even be successful (finally) in your efforts to get that clerical position in the civil service.
So says Seanie the shill for the public sector unions. The SIPTU era of pay increases will likely be the era of an unexpected reversal of the trend of falling unemployment.
 

Watcher2

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So says Seanie the shill for the public sector unions. The SIPTU era of pay increases will likely be the era of an unexpected reversal of the trend of falling unemployment.
Lead by example Pat.

There's a good lad.
 

making waves

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Patslatt doesn't want workers to get pay increases - while companies have booming profits.

Says it all really :roll:
 

SeanieFitz

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So says Seanie the shill for the public sector unions. The SIPTU era of pay increases will likely be the era of an unexpected reversal of the trend of falling unemployment.
yawn Pat...........you are a busted flush.........your posts generate a pitiful level of interest. I guess after 17,000+ monotonous, repetitious, infatuated posts on one sector of Irish society posters have seen you for the pompous bore you are.
 

daveL

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If the bond markets are correctly predicting falling prices in the eurozone economy, some recent public sector pay demands in Ireland look extreme. The strike of semistate Luas drivers rejecting an 18% pay increase over three years was extreme, as is talk in political circles of restoration of insanely high Benchmarking pay and a huge increase in minimum wages. Given productivity increases in the Irish economy of about 1%, wages should increase by 1% plus the expected change in prices. Assuming a fall by 0.75% to 1% in prices in the eurozone going by sovereign bond yields, no increase in pay is justified but no increase would result in increased purchasing power of 1%. However, if pay does increase, unemployment will likely rise.

Bond yields of advanced economies are the best prediction of expected price changes and it is remarkable that yields may be predicting falling price levels in the eurozone economy. At present, US Treasury 10 year inflation indexed bonds yield 0.12% a year,which suggests inflation of about 1% a year in the USA assuming investors expect a 1% real return after inflation. The 10 year government bonds of Germany, France and the Netherlands yield 0.01%, 0.42% and 0.25% respectively, suggesting prices will fall in the range of 0.75% to 1% a year. However, the European Central Bank's aggressive purchases of bonds in its QE programme may be depressing those bond yields below long term trend levels.
first person I've ever heard link bond prices to wages

might I add

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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Public servants.............pay............greedy bollixes..............too much............pensions (did I mention pensions?)..........benchmarking.............international comparatrors...........nurses...............teachers...........civil servants..........too much ............greedy..........



BINGO!
 

Watcher2

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first person I've ever heard link bond prices to wages

might I add

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
And they are on the upward trend. Quick, tell the unions so they can add this to their arsenal.

Pat will not be impressed.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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Patslatt doesn't want workers to get pay increases - while companies have booming profits.

Says it all really :roll:
There's a great scene in the book Legends OF The Fall where the director with the interest of the stockholders at heart cheers the hanging of a Wobbly from a bridge, I always think of that scene when Pat starts up. Entreprenoors are great and public servants are scum. Profits for the stock holders low minimum wage for the drones.
 

Dedogs

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first person I've ever heard link bond prices to wages

might I add

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
wasnt it the bondholders ************************************ up the country in the first place so who gives a ************************e about them.....
 

Watcher2

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Public servants.............pay............greedy bollixes..............too much............pensions (did I mention pensions?)..........benchmarking.............international comparatrors...........nurses...............teachers...........civil servants..........too much ............greedy..........



BINGO!
Pensions, don't forget the pensions. Its the pensions you see.
 

Conor

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Given productivity increases in the Irish economy of about 1%, wages should increase by 1% plus the expected change in prices. Assuming a fall by 0.75% to 1% in prices in the eurozone going by sovereign bond yields, no increase in pay is justified but no increase would result in increased purchasing power of 1%.
Pat, that assumption is predicated on Irish price levels matching Eurozone price levels. Wouldn't Irish CPI be a more relevant factor in Irish wage determination than inflation across the Eurozone as a whole?
 

Harmonica

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SIPTU may have negotiated a lot of private sector pay increases but they were largely modest rates linked to profitability of each employer. Public & semi state workers are rejecting similar increases - they know if the economy dives they'll still have their jobs for life.
 

gatsbygirl20

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If the bond markets are correctly predicting falling prices in the eurozone economy, some recent public sector pay demands in Ireland look extreme. The strike of semistate Luas drivers rejecting an 18% pay increase over three years was extreme, as is talk in political circles of restoration of insanely high Benchmarking pay and a huge increase in minimum wages. Given productivity increases in the Irish economy of about 1%, wages should increase by 1% plus the expected change in prices. Assuming a fall by 0.75% to 1% in prices in the eurozone going by sovereign bond yields, no increase in pay is justified but no increase would result in increased purchasing power of 1%. However, if pay does increase, unemployment will likely rise.

Bond yields of advanced economies are the best prediction of expected price changes and it is remarkable that yields may be predicting falling price levels in the eurozone economy. At present, US Treasury 10 year inflation indexed bonds yield 0.12% a year,which suggests inflation of about 1% a year in the USA assuming investors expect a 1% real return after inflation. The 10 year government bonds of Germany, France and the Netherlands yield 0.01%, 0.42% and 0.25% respectively, suggesting prices will fall in the range of 0.75% to 1% a year. However, the European Central Bank's aggressive purchases of bonds in its QE programme may be depressing those bond yields below long term trend levels.
Patslatt, workers don't give a fukk about bond yields. Let bonds look after themselves. Workers figure that they've bailed out enough global greed merchants.

They want more money for themselves and their families so that after working all week they can have a cocktail, or take their families out for a pizza, and maybe spend a week in the sunshine in Portugal or Italy in July....

The long term trend in bond yields is not their priority.

It's every man for himself. The individual is king. Dog eat dog.

I wonder who came up with that idea?
 

patslatt

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yawn Pat...........you are a busted flush.........your posts generate a pitiful level of interest. I guess after 17,000+ monotonous, repetitious, infatuated posts on one sector of Irish society posters have seen you for the pompous bore you are.
MASOCHIST
You stalk my posts as a masochist for boredom?
 
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patslatt

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Pat, that assumption is predicated on Irish price levels matching Eurozone price levels. Wouldn't Irish CPI be a more relevant factor in Irish wage determination than inflation across the Eurozone as a whole?
Irish CPI in the common currency area should match the eurozone CPI in the long run.
 

patslatt

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Apr 11, 2007
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SIPTU may have negotiated a lot of private sector pay increases but they were largely modest rates linked to profitability of each employer. Public & semi state workers are rejecting similar increases - they know if the economy dives they'll still have their jobs for life.
The historic safety valve was the boat to England for the unemployed, "Gone tingland" as people used to say.
 


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