War with Iran, is it coming?

kerdasi amaq

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War with Iran, is it coming?

If the UNITED STATES starts a war with Iran, in the next six months, what consequences would it have for Ireland?

What strategies should our "government" follow?
What preparations should our "government", make if say the price of oil quadruples because the Iranians close the streight of Hormuz?

Does the "government" has the strategic sense to cope with any crisis that may arise?

Can we stay neutral or does our acceptance of the Lisbon Treaty mean that we could be obliged to take part?:eek:

/MOD/ This thread merged here: http://www.politics.ie/forum/foreign-affairs/194462-defensive-attack-israel-iran-imminent.html /MOD/
 
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Mossy Heneberry

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If there is a war then of course the price of oil would skyrocket. Also prices in general would increase. I don't think we would be forced to take part. I also don't think it would be an invasion like Iraq, maybe airstrikes against nuclear facilities.

Of course this would be a disaster for the USA, because any urrent dissent in the country will switch sides and support the Iranian regime.
 

Thac0man

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twit taa woo
its just around the corner /cowen-esque

Yeah, we have been near to going around that corner for years. Is there any need for another thread on this when so many already exist? The End was/is/currently/about to be/may be/will be/ definitly is nigh... apparently.
 

kerdasi amaq

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Where? I haven't seen them. This thread is meant to be about national strategies that the government should follow if those morons(in Washington D.C.) decide that war is the only way out of their financial and political difficulties.

Interest rates could go up too.
 

eoghanacht

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Build another runway at shannon. Tell me kerdasi what's your suggestion other than turning Ireland into a caliphate
 

ryson

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War with Iran, is it coming?

If the UNITED STATES starts a war with Iran, in the next six months, what consequences would it have for Ireland?

What strategies should our "government" follow?
What preparations should our "government", make if say the price of oil quadruples because the Iranians close the streight of Hormuz?

Does the "government" has the strategic sense to cope with any crisis that may arise?

Can we stay neutral or does our acceptance of the Lisbon Treaty mean that we could be obliged to take part?:eek:

There's no certainty that either Russia or China would stand back and allow attacks to happen. Least wes forgets: Russia does border the EU.
 

eoghanacht

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Wars and upheaval produce poulation movements and refugees haven't you realised. That is more likely to do the trick than isolationism ever would.
Right so we'll send in the army to invade ellis island.
 

Passionateheart

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It has been reported in the English Times that Saudi air defences will be lowered to permit Zionist airforce safe flyovers on their way to massacre Iranians!
 

pujols

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War with Iran, is it coming?

If the UNITED STATES starts a war with Iran, in the next six months, what consequences would it have for Ireland?

What strategies should our "government" follow?
What preparations should our "government", make if say the price of oil quadruples because the Iranians close the streight of Hormuz?

Does the "government" has the strategic sense to cope with any crisis that may arise?

Can we stay neutral or does our acceptance of the Lisbon Treaty mean that we could be obliged to take part?:eek:
To answer your question in any sort of informed way, you would need to posit a little more information;

Is the attack to be provoked, or unprovoked?
Would it be in response to internal actions by the Iranian regime or external actions in a third country?
How will the internal situation in Iran be before an attack?
Do you anticipate it involving air raids or a ground invasion?
Would it be grounded in a UN resolution like Afghanistan or without one like Iraq?
Would any NATO members or EU member states be involved?

How our government should respond would depend on a multiplicity of factors and I think that you would need a far more detailed scenario before you get an informed response.
 

jcdf

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War with Iran might come and it might not.

The consequences of such a conflict would probably actually be quite marginal for the globe as a whole.

And remember it is in everyone's interests that another fanatical Muslim state does not acquire the bomb. It is bad enough Pakistan has it.

Of course this would be a disaster for the USA, because any urrent dissent in the country will switch sides and support the Iranian regime.
There by crippling necessary institutional reform in Iran and leaving it as another lame duck for another generation.

Build another runway at shannon. Tell me kerdasi what's your suggestion other than turning Ireland into a caliphate
That is a great idea! The US army has loads of money. We can hire Dublin airport terminal 2 out to them.
 

kerdasi amaq

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You have as much information as you can get from the media.

As to the actual plans of the war-mongers, they will not officially inform the world of what they intend to do, until after they've done it.

I would expect the Iranians to do something stupid, say make an "unprovoked" attack on some US facility, and if, they don't actually do it, then some unknown third party will make it happen for them.

P.S. I expect that the Americans will get their butts kicked, and that the war will not develop as they expect it to, leading the Washington regime to raise the stakes as they become more desperate.
 

kerdasi amaq

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Ireland should be building up stocks of fuel oil and other essential supplies. Maybe we should contemplate suspending repayment of the national debt for the duration of hostilities.
 

pujols

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You have as much information as you can get from the media.

As to the actual plans of the war-mongers, they will not officially inform the world of what they intend to do, until after they've done it.

I would expect the Iranians to do something stupid, say make an "unprovoked" attack on some US facility, and if, they don't actually do it, then some unknown third party will make it happen for them.

P.S. I expect that the Americans will get their butts kicked, and that the war will not develop as they expect it to, leading the Washington regime to raise the stakes as they become more desperate.
The Iranians have not directly attacked the US since the revolution. Why would they suddenly attack a nation which is now camped with enormous resources on either border?

The Iranian regime derives much of its legitimacy from its principled opposition to the US however recent history suggests that the last thing they want is to actually engage the US and have their internal weakness exposed.

Although from the outside it may look like a homogeneous 'death to america' party, the truth is that many people detest the regime and would be thrilled to return to the days of the Shah or even a functional democracy.

The mullahs are too smart to fall into the trap Saddam did. And the US has more interest in stability than in being forced to stretch their resources unnecessarily.

Iranian analysis of geo-political forces is quite sophisticated and the checks and balances in the regime's structure will prevent any unconsidered action.

They also know that the large Iranian diaspora has provided the US with far more up-to-date intelligence and information than they ever had on Iraq or Afghanistan and they are far better informed on Iranian defence systems.

The current stalemate is likely to continue for some time barring an Israeli intervention of some sort.

And the yanks won't get their butt kicked...
 

Andy4571

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It will probably happen before Obamas re-election.
Highly unlikely it will happen in the near future. The US forces are already overcommitted in Iraq and Afganistan. No resources to fight another war, and no appetite from US public for it either.

Only way war will start if is Iran starts it, either with an attack on US ( very unlikely ), or an attack on Israel ( less unlikely, but still unlikely ), as Iran prefers to use its proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas to attack Israel.

Iran is hurting economically at the moment, big cuts in subsidies which keep the poor and lower middle class just above the breadline. They may have squashed the green revolution last year, but it will happen at next election again and will be bigger and better prepared.

No worries if Iran gets the bomb, nukes are useless if the enemy has one as well, and especially if they have as many as Israel and US. Iran leaders like their power and comforts, and dont want to be glowing!!
 


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