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Waterford By-Election Updates


MoggyMcG

Active member
Joined
May 11, 2010
Messages
264
It would appear that Doherty is favourite to win any b-e in Donegal; Alex White in Dublin S; but does anyone have any polling figures for the current state of affairs in Waterford for Cullen's seat. There seems to be a dearth of info here...or does anyone give a damn?
 


LeDroit

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 11, 2010
Messages
1,771
Pat 'The Cope' will win his own seat back in Donegal. FF are slippy feckers. ;)
 

Oak Tree

Active member
Joined
Apr 6, 2008
Messages
104
looks like a FG win. Coffey....Lab and FF havent candidates selected which suggests they will struggle
 

jmcc

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Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,426
looks like a FG win. Coffey....Lab and FF havent candidates selected which suggests they will struggle
I think that even Keneally's seat at the next GE is in danger now. Coffey should win the bye-election seat though.

Regards...jmcc
 

loner

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 9, 2005
Messages
8,173
The bye-elections are unlikely to be held --with 18 % support for FF they do not have the consent of the people to govern and with the State in danger of collapse they must let the people decide who should be given the responsibility for shaping our future
 

Bridget558

Active member
Joined
Aug 6, 2010
Messages
297
Martin cullen in a wheelchair will be the FF candidate in this bye election and he will win.
 

super pedestrian

Active member
Joined
Apr 12, 2007
Messages
272
Martin cullen in a wheelchair will be the FF candidate in this bye election and he will win.
FF are lowlife scumbags, there's no doubt about that, but they would never attempt to use a man in a wheelchair purely for pol...it..ic..



al gain...oh.
 

Morte

Active member
Joined
Feb 5, 2009
Messages
198
It would appear that Doherty is favourite to win any b-e in Donegal; Alex White in Dublin S; but does anyone have any polling figures for the current state of affairs in Waterford for Cullen's seat. There seems to be a dearth of info here...or does anyone give a damn?
The lack of info is probably because it's rather boring. FG's Coffey is streets ahead as it stands now. Labour don't seem to have a suitable candidate to capitalise on their support. Unless we see a parachute that's unlikely to change so there's not a lot to talk about.
 

moodracer

Member
Joined
Sep 3, 2010
Messages
82
looks like a FG win. Coffey....Lab and FF havent candidates selected which suggests they will struggle
Yes Coffee appears to be in the driving seat. Seamus Ryan & Ciara Conway have apparently expressed interest in running for LAB. What about FF?
 

jmcc

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Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,426
Yes Coffee appears to be in the driving seat. Seamus Ryan & Ciara Conway have apparently expressed interest in running for LAB. What about FF?
FF seems to be in disarray after the LEs.

Regards...jmcc
 

Oak Tree

Active member
Joined
Apr 6, 2008
Messages
104
Why doesn't Labour get on and select one of them so?
It seems Ciara Conway would be ideal counter balance Candidate to O Shea in GE too - young, female, large urban base in west of County yet still drag their feet and won't put her on the ticket? She ticks all the boxes but Coffey will be too far ahead if they don't get their act together! J Conway could be a darkhorse too but will be limited by lack of resources and party support.
My predictions:-

By Election - Coffey

General Election -
O Shea
Deasy
Coffey
kenneally
 

Morte

Active member
Joined
Feb 5, 2009
Messages
198
Presumably they agree with your prediction that she (or the alternatives) won't win a seat. So they're delaying in the hope they can find a parachute in the meantime. The damage caused to her campaign if they don't find one only matters if they think she could win.
 

ctr

Active member
Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
260
Ok reading too much into the SBP poll...but just for fun.

Labour went up 17% in the national poll.
Add that to their vote in Waterford last time 5.66% + 17% = 22.66%

Fine Gael went up 5%
Added to their vote in Waterford last time 13.68% = + 5% = 18.68%

All to play for...


(This is for fun and not a serious analysis)
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,355
Ok reading too much into the SBP poll...but just for fun.

Labour went up 17% in the national poll.
Add that to their vote in Waterford last time 5.66% + 17% = 22.66%

Fine Gael went up 5%
Added to their vote in Waterford last time 13.68% = + 5% = 18.68%

All to play for...


(This is for fun and not a serious analysis)
Keep taking the tablets - they're working;)
 

ctr

Active member
Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
260
btw FF nationally got 44.5% in 2007 now on 18% so a drop of 26.5%

In Waterford they got 23.24% last time...so I predict a - 3.26% vote in Waterford next election. :)

Now there's something to look forward to...
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,426
Ok reading too much into the SBP poll...but just for fun.

Labour went up 17% in the national poll.
Add that to their vote in Waterford last time 5.66% + 17% = 22.66%

Fine Gael went up 5%
Added to their vote in Waterford last time 13.68% = + 5% = 18.68%

All to play for...
Is there a chance that Keneally could actually lose his seat next time out? I know Gary Wyse won a seat on the council but that seemed to have been a bit of an accident for FF (some of the usual mob didn't even get elected). Given the backlash against FF and the generally low profile of Keneally (Cullen being the star FF performer), would there be enough of a FF vote to get him across the line?

Regards...jmcc
 

ctr

Active member
Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
260
It would in reality depend on how many candidates they run and their relevant strengths

If they run 3 then with a split vote neither might reach the quota.

If they run 2 then he would have a better chance unless the other candidate proves a bigger vote getter than predicted which is possible as Kenneally is tainted by his support for the current incompetents.
 

Morte

Active member
Joined
Feb 5, 2009
Messages
198
Ok reading too much into the SBP poll...but just for fun.

Labour went up 17% in the national poll.
Add that to their vote in Waterford last time 5.66% + 17% = 22.66%

Fine Gael went up 5%
Added to their vote in Waterford last time 13.68% = + 5% = 18.68%

All to play for...


(This is for fun and not a serious analysis)
Oh, you'd be a fool to say Labour don't have the support to challenge for a seat. The problem is whether Labour's support is now running ahead of the actual candidates they have available. I think Labour's actions (they're selecting general candidates elsewhere but have shown no sign of selecting this bye election candidate) suggest Labour themselves think this is the case here.

On these poll results Kenneally is beginning to look shaky, I would have presumed before he'd be safe. As well as the die hard FF vote and his personal vote it's quite possible neither FG (Deasy and Coffey) nor Labour (O'Shea and Conway) will actually run a strong city candidate. I'd guess it'll be enough to squeak through but I don't think Kenneally is that popular himself. I think people were just making sure there was a second FFer to allow Cullen his cabinet seat.
 

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