Waterford By-Election Updates

ctr

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Oh, you'd be a fool to say Labour don't have the support to challenge for a seat. The problem is whether Labour's support is now running ahead of the actual candidates they have available. I think Labour's actions (they're selecting general candidates elsewhere but have shown no sign of selecting this bye election candidate) suggest Labour themselves think this is the case here.
I think I would agree with this.
 


Oak Tree

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Ok reading too much into the SBP poll...but just for fun.

Labour went up 17% in the national poll.
Add that to their vote in Waterford last time 5.66% + 17% = 22.66%

Fine Gael went up 5%
Added to their vote in Waterford last time 13.68% = + 5% = 18.68%

All to play for...


(This is for fun and not a serious analysis)
I know you said this was fun but where on earth did u get your percentages from in last election?

Have a look at this link and then do your tot:-

ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Waterford First Preference Votes
 

ctr

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Sorry dude... I got the figures on the same site.

If you click "Party Details" on page you linked you find This
 

dotski_w_

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Sorry dude... I got the figures on the same site.

If you click "Party Details" on page you linked you find This

those pages aren't updated yet on elections.org - they have the following disclaimer

This page currently has some problems in its implementation and calculations; apologies for any inconvenience.
LP would be favourites for the bye-election here if they had their act together. Clearly they don't, and Gilmore really needs to intervene, IMO, as it's just a joke at this stage.
 

Morte

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LP would be favourites for the bye-election here if they had their act together. Clearly they don't, and Gilmore really needs to intervene, IMO, as it's just a joke at this stage.
It's been well known for ages that Labour HQ have been trying to persuade Independent Halligan to run for them. Presumably they're looking out for others as well. This'd be worrying for Labour as it seems HQ aren't able to find a candidate despite having a good chance of a seat. There must be a real danger of this being replicated elsewhere (outside of Dublin) in a general election. Labour's support is too big not to make massive gains but it mightn't be at the level they're polling.
 

ctr

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As far as I'm aware there are 3 people going through the selection procedure as we speak.
 

dotski_w_

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It's been well known for ages that Labour HQ have been trying to persuade Independent Halligan to run for them. Presumably they're looking out for others as well. This'd be worrying for Labour as it seems HQ aren't able to find a candidate despite having a good chance of a seat. There must be a real danger of this being replicated elsewhere (outside of Dublin) in a general election. Labour's support is too big not to make massive gains but it mightn't be at the level they're polling.
It appears to be a particular problem in Waterford though. They've attracted credible candidates (IMO!) in most places, certainly compared to what they ran in half the country in '92. There still seems to be difficulties in Laois-Offaly and Clare, but at least these have the excuse of v.little party structure on the ground and little history of ppl voting LP in the past, but Waterford has no such excuses.

Obviously it's up to Halligan if he'll join LP or not, but I'd have thought he'd be a reasonable fit, and if the local party are doing anything to block this, they need a bit of sorting out, IMO
 

quiatimet

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Heard something about Pat Daly as the FF candidate but I don't think they have had their convention yet...
 

Tony Soprano

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4 names have been forward by Labour branches/activists in Waterford
Barron
Kyne
Conway
Ryan.

These will now be interviewed by a panel from the National Executive and a recommendation will be forthcoming.

Brian O'Shea is chair of executive so i expect that the candidate that suits his agenda will be chosen, rather than the candidate that would do best for Labour!
 

forest

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i am sorry is this happening?
I thought it was defeated?
 

jackSparrow

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Looking at the labour candidates the only one with a realistic shot is Ger Barron or Bllly Kyne

Conway is a good councillor but is only on dungarvan town council and is a cllr less than a year

Ryan is also a good cllr but they wont want 2 tds from the east splitting the vote in a general election when it comes

Kyne and Barron both have been cllrs for 3 terms.

Kyne has his base in Dungarvan so would be ideal with a east/west divide of votes in a GE

My money would be on Barron considering he got the highest first preference votes of any labour cllr ( town or county) in the last local election. While being mid county might be a disadvanatge he is well know in Waterford city and in Dungarvan. Think he will really surprise a lot of people.

Whoever FF run wont stand a snowballs chance in hell of getting elected they will want a serious thick skin just to go dorr to door

Coffey wont want this foregone conclusion talk either ...
 

Tony Soprano

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I agree with you regarding Barron. He would give it a good crack.
Kyne is an absolute busted flush at this stage. He had the opportunity to make Dungarvan his own following Deasy's departure from the local scene, but he has failed miserably. There is a lot of in-fighting within Labour in waterford, but this is masked to an extent due to the Deasy v Coffey rivalry which exists in Fine Gael.

Conway hasnt really made any impact as a Town Councillor, even though she received the old Democratic Left (anti-Kyne) Vote in Dungarvan. Her politics are very much of the "student left" type and as such she comes across as very naive politically.

Having lost her seat, Teresa Wright is not at the races.

OShea would love to have Conway as his running mate. It would look great to have a young woman on the ticket, but this would, i feel ,cover up the fact that she is very weak.

Watch this space!!

Conway to be picked and then she will taught the political lesson of her life!!!
 

Oak Tree

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I agree with you regarding Barron. He would give it a good crack.
Kyne is an absolute busted flush at this stage. He had the opportunity to make Dungarvan his own following Deasy's departure from the local scene, but he has failed miserably. There is a lot of in-fighting within Labour in waterford, but this is masked to an extent due to the Deasy v Coffey rivalry which exists in Fine Gael.

Conway hasnt really made any impact as a Town Councillor, even though she received the old Democratic Left (anti-Kyne) Vote in Dungarvan. Her politics are very much of the "student left" type and as such she comes across as very naive politically.

Having lost her seat, Teresa Wright is not at the races.

OShea would love to have Conway as his running mate. It would look great to have a young woman on the ticket, but this would, i feel ,cover up the fact that she is very weak.

Watch this space!!

Conway to be picked and then she will taught the political lesson of her life!!!
Interesting assessment alright!

Im just amazed Labour havent got candidate into the field for recognition purposes if nothing else....even if it was for the succession of B O Shea

Leaving the pitch to FG - Coffey, SF - Cullinane and Inds Conway & Halligan is not doing their profile much good Id say

I must check what the bookies say.....back later ;-)
 

jackSparrow

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No bookies price on Paddy Powers for Waterford By Election??

However looking at the link below if Barron is the strongest candidate Labour can come up with then Labour dont seem to be at the races in Waterford??

ElectionsIreland.org: 2009 Local - Comeragh First Preference Votes
You cant base your opinion on the results alone. You need to look at that last election and where the candidates ran.

Mid county waterford is predominantly FG and lima brazil has huge support. Brendan Cofeyy brother is a senator (Paudie) and had portlaw all to himself. Look at a map of waterford and where the candidates were from . Barron is based in Kilmacthomas, FF ran Whelan from the same village against him and also ran O'leary ( who is his brother in law ) by the way in kilmeaden .

Ryan had the whole of the west part of the electroal area to himself and his family have controlled that seat for 3 generations

So a labour candidate in a mainly FG electoral area with FF running a candidate on his doorstep and his brother in law against him... Dont know about you but i dont know any other labour cllr in ireland which could get elected here ....

Look at the reasons for numbers not just the numbers themselves
 

boolavogue

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Waterford Bye Election.

IMHO Brian O'Shea won't want anybody on the Labour ticket who might threaten his ambitions.So I say Conway has a very good chance of selection.Also, an insider told me that he thinks BOS might be lining up his son to suceed him.
 

Oak Tree

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You cant base your opinion on the results alone. You need to look at that last election and where the candidates ran.

Mid county waterford is predominantly FG and lima brazil has huge support. Brendan Cofeyy brother is a senator (Paudie) and had portlaw all to himself. Look at a map of waterford and where the candidates were from . Barron is based in Kilmacthomas, FF ran Whelan from the same village against him and also ran O'leary ( who is his brother in law ) by the way in kilmeaden .

Ryan had the whole of the west part of the electroal area to himself and his family have controlled that seat for 3 generations

So a labour candidate in a mainly FG electoral area with FF running a candidate on his doorstep and his brother in law against him... Dont know about you but i dont know any other labour cllr in ireland which could get elected here ....

Look at the reasons for numbers not just the numbers themselves
Fair points and info I didnt know but you cant ignore the numbers and the results...

Barron would even find it more difficult surely up against more established names....the numbers just dont stack up for Labour based on these figures
 

jabbers

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Jun 13, 2006
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About 300 turned up for John Halligan's launch of his election campaign!
Very passionate and up lifting speech I must say.
Very much surprised by the numbers of chairmen/chairpersons of residents associations present at it. All rolling in behind his campaign.
Going to be a very interesting campaign and in my opinion going to be one of the tightest elections ever in Waterford.

After Labours performance with McBrearty and now tonight with Brutal Bruton, you have to admit Labour are very weak on the ground after all the good opinion polls! I’d expect them to be down a few points next time around in the polls!

Independents are yet going to have a say in the next government…..
 


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