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Waterford Bye-Election


pfkf

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Oct 3, 2006
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It appears that Fine Gael will be holding their selection convention for the upcoming Bye-Election in Waterford this Thursday, the 22nd of April at 8pm, in Lawlors Hotel in Dungarvan and Party Leader Enda Kenny will be in attendance.

The only candidate seeking the nomination is Fine Gael Senator Paudie Coffey. What do people think are his chances? considering he is based in the county and the party did reasonably well in the city in the last Locals.

Will Halligan, the city Mayor stand a chance, or will Labour or Fianna Fail pose any threat?

Who do people think will win the seat, that was vacated by Martin Cullen last month?
 

Tony Soprano

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Mar 2, 2010
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Coffey will take the bye election (if one is held!). Either way Coffey will win a Dail seat when the electorate of Waterford finally get their say at the polls!! (there's even an outside chance that Coffey could outpoll Deasy in a general election! remember where you heard it first!)
 

kingofpiccadilly

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Coffey is doing excellent work for the people of Waterford and deserves his chance . . . . he would have to be hot favourite to win the seat but there are strong rumours of a prominent city-based sportsman standing for Fiann Fáil
 

kingofpiccadilly

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Fianna Fáil . . . . why am i not able to edit my posts :mad: . . . . is there a minimum number of posts required first :confused:
 

Cyberspaced

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The Bye-Election should be won comfortably by Coffey. He's based in the County but since he opened an office in the City he has been very active and visible in and around the City.

Halligan won't get a vote outside of the City so he won't really be a major threat. With Cullen's Ministerial vote gone the FF vote will collapse I'd imagine given the Waterford Crystal issue coupled with the state of the nation in general, not to mention things like University status for WIT. There's more than likely not enough votes for them to feature in a bye-election race and they will naturally be transfer-repellent.
 

Partizan

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The Bye-Election should be won comfortably by Coffey. He's based in the County but since he opened an office in the City he has been very active and visible in and around the City.

Halligan won't get a vote outside of the City so he won't really be a major threat. With Cullen's Ministerial vote gone the FF vote will collapse I'd imagine given the Waterford Crystal issue coupled with the state of the nation in general, not to mention things like University status for WIT. There's more than likely not enough votes for them to feature in a bye-election race and they will naturally be transfer-repellent.
Coffey will walk it thats for sure. He will be so far ahead of the rest it will be the equivalent of the time Eddy Merckx stopped for 20 minutes for an ice cream in the Tour de France. The Zanu FF will drop but it wont collapse like many hope. Remember they have a sizable hard core vote in the city and Co. Waterford that will vote Zanu FF no matter what, even if they sacrificed all the first born and interfered with snails.
 

South

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Will Halligan definetly run as an Indp, could he be another high profile recruit to Lab following Cowley, Forde & that fella in Loughrea?

Coffey is definetly in poll position, Lab have no one beyond O'Shea while Wilkinson couldn't even win a Council seat for FF, I thought Deasy or the anti-Kennyite Geoghegan in Dungarvan may have sought to run an anti-Coffeyt icket but sense has obviously prevailed
 

Oak Tree

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Word is that Labour Party HQ want Halligan to run for them but local organisation is objecting!!
Has Halligan been asked if hes interested in running for Labour?

Has O Shea been asked what his views on this are?

Come on journos......wheres the questions that you should be asking?
 

jmcc

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Word is that Labour Party HQ want Halligan to run for them but local organisation is objecting!!
Has Halligan been asked if hes interested in running for Labour?

Has O Shea been asked what his views on this are?
Does Labour even have a potential candidate? A Labour candidate gain valuable publicity and would, when the GE happens, probably be running as the main Labour candidate and replacing O'Shea (who is not exactly young). Perhaps the local Labourites all want one of their own to get the chance rather than an outsider.

Come on journos......wheres the questions that you should be asking?
1. When will O'Shea be retiring?
2. Does Labour have a replacement with a high local profile?
3. Does Labour even think it has a chance of taking a second seat?
4. Is Labour hoping to pick up disaffected FF votes?

Regards...jmcc
 

dotski_w_

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Word is that Labour Party HQ want Halligan to run for them but local organisation is objecting!!
Has Halligan been asked if hes interested in running for Labour?

Has O Shea been asked what his views on this are?

Come on journos......wheres the questions that you should be asking?
If Halligan wants to run for LP and the local lads are resisting, you'd have to say that some degree of outside involvement is required. Waterford has a large left vote, and yes the LP in Waterford has stagnated badly over the last decade - they did very poorly in the LEs all things considered - and yet a good candidate strategy could see 2 left seats in the constituency if LP got its act together. The fact that they are so far from that is a commentary on the local party, IMO, rather than the potential of the constituency.

If Halligan joined, presumably a number of his supporters could follow. Given the circumstances, surely there must be a way of enfranchising these in the selection convention, given the apparently moribund state of the existing party.
 

Oak Tree

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candidate lineup from good sources of Information in Waterford

Candidates declared so far:-

Paudie Coffey - Fine Gael
David Cullinane - Sinn Fein
Joe Conway - Independent

Possibles:-

Fianna Fail - Lorraine Clifford/Pat Daly/Ollie Wilkinson/James Tobin/Michael J O Ryan ???
Labour - Seamus Ryan/Gerard Barron/Ciara Conway or John Halligan??
Greens - Stan Nangle
Workers Party - Joe Tobin/David Walsh
People before Profit - Donie Fell
Socialists Workers Party - ??
Christian Solidarity Party - Declan Waters
Independent - John Halligan/Mary Roche/Dick Roche
 

kingofpiccadilly

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cost

Candidates declared so far:-

Paudie Coffey - Fine Gael
David Cullinane - Sinn Fein
Joe Conway - Independent

Possibles:-

Fianna Fail - Lorraine Clifford/Pat Daly/Ollie Wilkinson/James Tobin/Michael J O Ryan ???
Labour - Seamus Ryan/Gerard Barron/Ciara Conway or John Halligan??
Greens - Stan Nangle
Workers Party - Joe Tobin/David Walsh
People before Profit - Donie Fell
Socialists Workers Party - ??
Christian Solidarity Party - Declan Waters
Independent - John Halligan/Mary Roche/Dick Roche
of the 3 declared, Coffey would skate in

can the possible candidates in bold afford a bye-election campaign and then be faced with a possible GE in a very short space of time ? . . . . most of these candidates have no chance in a bye-election where odds are heavily stacked in favour of the big parties . . . . they might keep their powder dry and try sneak the last seat in a GE

I don't think FF have a chance (unless the rumour about the hurler is true, if Waterford had a good run in the Championship in the lead up to polling day - you couldn't buy that publicity)

Halligan has a huge city vote but it would die a death at the thirty mile an hour sign, imo, . . . . a Labour ticket might bring in support for him county-wide and give him a realistic shot
 

Morte

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I don't think most of the candidates in bold have a chance in a general election either :lol:. It would be a show of commitment though, it might look bad to not run in the bye and then run in the general shortly afterwards. There's also the danger that you're giving others a free reign to build their profile above yours.
 

petronius

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May 12, 2004
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It looks like an easy seat gain for Fine Gael. It is pathetic that labours best hope to win the seat is by recruiting an independent to run for them!
The greens will be wiped.
Fianna Fail will do poorly - but still the diehards will turn out for them.
The Workers Party should shore up its support try running a candidate likely to get on to the council next time round.
Halligan will poll well but could be punished by his core vote if he joins labour.
Sinn Fein need to regroup after last years locals there was rumours some years ago of Halligan joining them!
SWP/PBP should run a candidate but look at it positioning for the next GE and future local elections.
With the Waterford Crystal job losses, the Health Care services, there must be scope for a strong left wing vote here in the next general election, this time round it will be shoe-in for Fine Gael. (i do think a donegal by-election will be more difficult to call)
 

kingofpiccadilly

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agreed . . . . but . . . .

I don't think most of the candidates in bold have a chance in a general election either :lol:. It would be a show of commitment though, it might look bad to not run in the bye and then run in the general shortly afterwards. There's also the danger that you're giving others a free reign to build their profile above yours.
i think Halligan is the exception and that he might have a chance . . . . the rest no hope in any election . . . . and of the three declared Coffey is the only one to stand a chance in a GE aswell . . . . Halligan would out-poll the other two . . . . if SF are to make ground in Waterford they need to look beyond Cullinane . . . . he hasn't the vote . . . . all jmo
 

Morte

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The others motivation is different though. For some it will be advancing their cause and what they believe in. For others it's more about how it affects their hold on a local seat. It's pointless judging a Christian Solidarity candidate against a FG one.
 

jmcc

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Jun 12, 2004
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Well the Greens don't have Brendan McCann as a candidate now so this election should be interesting.

Regards...jmcc
 

ctr

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Feb 15, 2004
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Maybe, but not for the Greens (unless they like humiliation)
 
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