Waterford: call the next General Election.


Socratus O' Pericles

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Adrian Kavanagh's summary:

Waterford (4 seats): Senator Paudie Coffey (Fine Gael), Deputy Mary Butler (Fianna Fáil), Deputy David Cullinane (Sinn Féin), Cllr. John Pratt (Labour Party), Una Dunphy (People Before Profit), Senator Grace O’Sullivan (Green Party), Lee Walsh (Independent)

The Irish Times (1st February 2017) has reported that hospital campaigners are considering running a candidate in this constituency at the next general election over the issue of cardiac services in University Hospital Waterford.

On 1st November 2017 it was announced that Senator Grace O’Sullivan would be the Green Party candidate in this constituency.

It was announced that Lee Walsh would be the Renua candidate for this constituency. His campaign was launched in Waterford City on 16th November. However, he subsequently decided to contest the election as an Independent candidate.

Una Dunphy was selected as the People Before Profit candidate for the Waterford constituency in November 2017.

As reported by the Irish Times (27th November 2017), at the Fine Gael selection convention on 27th November 2017, Deputy John Deasy announced that “would not be available to run in a snap general election due to health concerns”. This left Senator Paudie Coffey as the only candidate to be selected at that convention, with the party to add another candidate later. Cllrs. John Cummins and Damien Geoghegan were also nominated to contest this convention – while Cllr. Geoghegan withdrew his nomination, Cllr, Cummins did contest this.

Deputy David Cullinane was unanimously selected as the Sinn Féin candidate for this constituency at a selection convention on 2nd December 2017.

As reported by The Avondhu (7th December 2017), Cllr. John Pratt will be the Labour Party candidate for this constituency, having defeated Brendan Byrne in a vote at the party selection convention on 1st December 2017.

As reported in The Irish Examiner (11th March), the Fianna Fáil selection convention was held in Lawlor’s Hotel, Dungarvan on 10th March, with two candidates contesting this. This was won by Deputy Mary Butler, who won 225 votes at this convention to Cllr. Eamon Quinlan’s 108 votes.

An interview with the Munster Express (9th October 2018) has provoked some speculation that Deputy John Halligan may not contest the next general election, with him being quoted as follows: “I think I’ve done a lot and maybe I’ve done my time, maybe. It’s certainly something I am going to have to think about but I’ve not reached that point yet”.
Cath Lab Halligan the epitome of "new politics " mightn't run.:rolleyes2: Which would mean 50% of the TDs would be out with Deasy also gone.
1FG,1FF, 1SFand 1 up for grabs if JH bows out.
 

Dame_Enda

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FG has 1 seat there now compared to 2 in 2011. Supposedly they are nationally back at 2011 levels, while Inds are dropping. So I'm cautiously saying: 2FG, 1 FF, 1SF. I think the last seat may go to the second FGer but don't completely rule out Halligan given his strong local profile and advocacy for the hospital.
 

Breanainn

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O'Sullivan seems to built up a reasonable media profile since making the Seanad, but presumably is starting from too low a base here?
 

cruachan

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Feb 17, 2008
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There is definitely a FF seat here but Mary Butler is lucky she hasn't got a running mate because I don't think she'd make it.
 

statsman

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Any word on Halligan's intentions?
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

the secretary

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Are FG strong enough here to gain a seat even though their sitting TD is standing down?
 

midlander12

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Are FG strong enough here to gain a seat even though their sitting TD is standing down?
They've always struggled with the second seat here, with 2011 being the only recent occasion they've taken it. Last time both FGers were about 2000 behind Halligan, so the latter would have to fall significantly for two FGers to get in. You'd imagine Halligan has done enough pork-barrelling while in govt to hold on. Perhaps a new FG look with Deasy off the ticket may actually help them. No one else was even close last time so I think it will be FF 1, SF 1, FG 1 and then Halligan v FG for the last seat.
 
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