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Waterford General Election Predictions


Oak Tree

Active member
Joined
Apr 6, 2008
Messages
104
Drennan on todays Sindo predicts:-

2 Labour
1 Fine Gael
1 Fianna Fail

As this stage I cant see that prediciton being correct, in my opinion it will be one of the following:-

2 FG
1 FF
1 Lab

or

1 FF
1 FG
1 Lab
1 Ind
 

ctr

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Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
260
any one of those predications could be the one.

Its all to play for.
 

Tony Soprano

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Mar 2, 2010
Messages
356
Brian O'Shea will do all in his power to ensure that J Halligan wont be on the ticket! He would much prefer a weak running mate so that when he retires at the elction after next the path will be clear for a member of his family to hold his seat. Someone like Conway would suit him down to the ground as she wouldnt have a chance of being elected. I reckon Seamus Ryan wont stand and then O'Shea supporters will throw their weight behind Conway. This will be done in order to keep halligan out and O'Shea safe.
 

MoggyMcG

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May 11, 2010
Messages
264
Soprano's on the ball, as usual. Brian has his son John waiting in the wings to move into Pat O'Callaghan's Co. Co. seat in 2014 (...maybe even before that, with a co-option) and to "inherit" the "hereditary peerage" at the GE after that. An egalitarian bunch indeed!
 

Telemachus

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Apr 8, 2004
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en.wikipedia.org
The worst thing about Waterford is that theres nobody else to vote for. Even if you hate FF, many will vote for the FG/Labour idiots.

Is the no qualifications Paudie(Senator) the loudmouth running?

Is Gary Wyse(FF) there running too?

I know the slumlords of waterford will vote for the two of them. They have endorsed the gravy train of Nama and rent allowances for developers.
 
Last edited:

goreyboy

Member
Joined
Apr 6, 2010
Messages
26
Drennan on todays Sindo predicts:-

2 Labour
1 Fine Gael
1 Fianna Fail

As this stage I cant see that prediciton being correct, in my opinion it will be one of the following:-

2 FG
1 FF
1 Lab

or

1 FF
1 FG
1 Lab
1 Ind
I agree, Drennan's prediction is wrong on this one. It is clear he didn't do too much research. My guess going off the figures is that Coffey is favourite to gain an extra seat for FG.

Making it 2FG 1LP and the last seat between FF/Ind.

In fact I couldn't believe Drennan when he said that Coffey wouldn't go down too well in Waterford, considering he almost polled 5,000 votes at the last GE on his first time out.
 

locke

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May 2, 2007
Messages
3,092
A lot will depend on whether the by election is held before the General Election. If it is, you'd fancy whoever wins it to retain their seat - and Coffey seems to have the by-election to lose at the moment.
 

safari

Member
Joined
Feb 5, 2009
Messages
22
IN a bye election Coffey in prime position. Depends on who Labour run, if Halligan ran for them then I think he would have a v.good chance. Transfers in G.E. will be vital and will determine who the winners are. Coffey has a solid base of just under 5,000 1st preferences from last election to build on. What way will SF, independent Halligan transfer in a G.E. More likely to transfer to each other or to Labour than FF/FG. At the present Coffey in the driving seat though all to play for.
 

ctr

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Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
260
Was listening to Kenneally the other day telling us how FF may have problems holding the 2nd seat.

Brendan, you will have problems holding any seat!
 

Oak Tree

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Apr 6, 2008
Messages
104
any local polls available for Waterford?

By election seem to be off the radar now so it would be interesting to see a poll for GE.

I suspect Deasy & O Shea would be on top, but what about the rest now that the political landscape is changing?

Parties or local newspapers are surely polling?
 

Oak Tree

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Apr 6, 2008
Messages
104
Wow - Labour to only run 1 Candidate in Waterford GE according to Local Radio.

This surely displays a total lack of ambition on behalf of Labour and will take alot of the wind out of Gilmores Sails.......

John Drennan in SINDO predicted 2 Lab seats in this constituency in his guide a few weeks ago - Labour must have carried out a private poll and were afraid to chance 2 candidates
 

ctr

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Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
260
The decision is nuts.

I hear there are some unhappy people locally and are making it known.
 

Oak Tree

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Joined
Apr 6, 2008
Messages
104
The decision is nuts.

I hear there are some unhappy people locally and are making it known.
That's exactly what I would have thought- if labour are to capitalise then they need to make gains or at least be in running for 2nd seats in places like Waterford

this decision doesn't augur well for Labour nationally - I honestly thought Cllr Conway would be on ticket and balanced it nicely to sitting td

young, female, west, new face
v
grey, male, east, old face
 

LgCastell

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Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
Yes and i would have thought that long termism would necessitate this

O shea will go after the next GE (after Lab are in gov and have introduced a 3/4/5 yeat austerity plan) this would mean Lab trying to get an unknown to get a seat in waterford

I would say o shea is relatively safe so even running a candidate just to get his/her name out there for next time out wouldnt hurt lab and if selection was good could pull off two however i would see the most likely outcome here as

2 FG with Coffie being the PD of Waterford constantly pushing for the bye election and getting decent coverage as he is the only confirmed candidate
1 Lab O shea

Last between Lab 2 if they ran 1 FF and indo (Halligan)

is halligan running under the ULA or as an indo?
 

Tony Soprano

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Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
356
There will be a second Labour candidate in Waterford. He/She will be added by national exec. (brian oshea chairs this group!) and the candidate will be chosen by oshea and not the local membership!!!
 

Partizan

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Joined
Jan 5, 2005
Messages
7,830
Yes and i would have thought that long termism would necessitate this

O shea will go after the next GE (after Lab are in gov and have introduced a 3/4/5 yeat austerity plan) this would mean Lab trying to get an unknown to get a seat in waterford

I would say o shea is relatively safe so even running a candidate just to get his/her name out there for next time out wouldnt hurt lab and if selection was good could pull off two however i would see the most likely outcome here as

2 FG with Coffie being the PD of Waterford constantly pushing for the bye election and getting decent coverage as he is the only confirmed candidate
1 Lab O shea

Last between Lab 2 if they ran 1 FF and indo (Halligan)

is halligan running under the ULA or as an indo?
Halligan is running as an Independent. Cant see him get in as a previous poster says, he has too much ground to make up. he will poll well in the city but will fall down badly in the county. He needs between 5,500-6k 1st pref to have any chance and besides he will be up against Lab, WP and ULA for the Left vote in Waterford.

Opinion poll on Waterford released by Red C -
Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll 21 November 2010: Fianna Fail down to 29 seats? « politicalreform.ie

Breakdown as follows -
FF FG Lab GP SF Ind & Oth
Waterford18.7%32.6%29.8%1.3%10.5%7.1%

That roughly transaltes into FF 1 FG 2 Lab 1
 

flexbrowne

Active member
Joined
Jul 3, 2007
Messages
218
I reckon it will be 2 FG (deasy and coffey), 1 Lab (o'shea) and the last seat between fat kenneally (waster), and Cullinane (SF) with Halligan (Ind) running close for that fourth seat.

They (FF) have only one councillor and he's out in W4 where his business rep earned him votes. kenneally bullied his way in the last time after a bertie appointed senate spell. he was dumped the time before and hopefully will be again.
 
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