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We need to stop large amounts of youth falling into unemployment


cyberianpan

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A clear consequence of the current crisis is rising unemployment

It is very likely that recent college & school leavers are being disproportionately affected, the Live Register (a blunt instrument) shows increases as greatest in the sub 35 year old category

Looking at the Quarterly National Household Survey for say males we see a worrying pattern:

Code:
		15-19	20-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-59	60-64
							
Apr-Jun2003	15.8	8.1	5.2	3.9	3.6	2.9	*
Apr-Jun2009	40.0	30.2	18.0	12.3	10.4	7.7	8.0
Clearly unemployment is sky rocketing in the youth. However youth are affected differently by unemployment.

David Blanchflower, a very eminent economist was in Dublin recently and his presentation was insightful.

Slide 37
The Consequences of Youth Unemployment
In a recent paper, David Bell of the University of Stirling and I, found that
youth unemployment is especially harmful and creates scars
• We used data from the UK 1958 (3rd -9th March) birth cohort the National
Child Development Study (NCDS).
• Youth unemployment while young (≤ age 23) raises unemployment, lowers
wages, worsens health and lowers job satisfaction
• No such effects could be found for spells of unemployment when the
respondents were in their thirties
• The effects continued into middle age when the respondents were in their
late forties.
So clearly youth unemployment leads to irreversible damage to a large proportion of those unemployed. In simple terms Ireland has been investing in the human capital of these youth since birth: welfare, children's benefit, health and especially education.

Now we risk these assets being devalued, just as they were due to start producing. Not merely will their future worth be diminished - they may even turn to crime !

We need to consider intervening, as per this Irish Economy post on the topic Fás is a joke, at its best it may cater for construction workers
However, those who argue that active intervention in the Irish labour market is counter-productive will be given further credence by the reports on the FAS Work Experience Programme. If the Times is correct, it is very likely that this has flopped and is currently under review.
Also see

Irish Times - No country for young men

According to two reports this week, young Irish people - and men in particular - are bearing the brunt of the recession, with potentially devastating effects on their lives and the economy. Members of the so-called 'lost generation' discuss their plight. CARL O'BRIEN, Chief Reporter

THEY’RE BRIGHT and they’re eager – but they’re also unwanted.
...
Leading labour economist Prof David Blanchflower has made headlines in the UK in recent times, warning of a “lost generation” of young people unless the British government moved swiftly to tackle the crisis. Visiting Dublin this week, his message was just as stark. He pointed to research in Britain which found that people who were unemployed in their mid-20s were more likely to be unemployed, have lower health and generate a lower wage later in life.
...
There is no time to waste, says Brian Mooney,...

“Unless you find work, your skills deteriorate within a few months,” he says. “So if a young person has left college or the construction industry and is out of work for a year, you’re going backwards. Your skills, morale and self-esteem all take a hit.”
Philip Lane makes clear here why a classical Keynsian stimulus for Ireland is not appropriate

However what can we do for the young unemployed ?

Clearly an investment here could save us future fiscal loss , and stave off a reduction in nett human capital. Any ideas ?

cYp
 
Last edited:


BlackWatch

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Joined
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Messages
153
Send them to Britain to train in the Royal Army,and navy,so they can serve the Crown
 
Last edited:

politicaldonations

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682
Employ them at min wage for hard labour building the resevoirs for the spirit of ireland thing or have a years national service and they get a 10k bonus at end as well as SW
 

cyberianpan

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Personally I'd be willing to consider some sort of Keynsian stimulus / make-work programme for this segment

Potential problems would be that it would
A) Not be fit for purpose
B) Fall foul of EU state aid/ competition rules
C) Funding: however I think bond investors could be persuaded

Anyone any bright ideas ... e.g. subsidize new MNC jobs ?


cYp
 

EUrJokingMeRight

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Messages
11,832
The minimum wage must be scrapped - at the very least significantly lowered. This is the single major barrier restricting young people from working.
Energy costs and commercial rents should come down first. Oh hang on that would affect the Land/Property Owner(FF) and the ESB workers' pay rises(PS), 70k-80k is not enough clearly. Anyway They need to come down first of all before we screw the workers who actually are on the minimum wage again. That lot have it tough enough already.
 

nonpartyboy

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Dec 24, 2006
Messages
6,853
Deport all the non eu nationals who's visas expire and the overstayers, how many chinese and
'asian" "students" must be working here illegally for a start ?That will leave plenty of jobs empty.

Deport all failed asylum seekers, if nothing it will save the state a fortune and free up a few taxis jobs.
 

cyberianpan

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Energy costs and commercial rents should come down first. Oh hang on that would affect the Land/Property Owner(FF) and the ESB workers' pay rises(PS), 70k-80k is not enough clearly. Anyway They need to come down first of all before we screw the workers who actually are on the minimum wage again. That lot have it tough enough already.
Hazlitt's minimum wage idea could be construed as targeted at the youth, as clearly being labour market entrants, they would expect to be at the lower end of the wage spectrum

Your idea is a little too general as it appertains to all economic sectors

The minimum wage must be scrapped - at the very least significantly lowered. This is the single major barrier restricting young people from working.
I agree that the minimum wage is a barrier to certain segments of the youth, however many new entrant college graduates were earning not too far from minimum wage anyway ... and it is clear the rise in unemployment is of staggering order.... so a modest wage adjustment, whilst welcome, would only prove a partial solution

I think we may need to look at diverting dole funding also...

cYp
 

eyeswideopen

Active member
Joined
Nov 6, 2009
Messages
260
Personally I'd be willing to consider some sort of Keynsian stimulus / make-work programme for this segment

Potential problems would be that it would
A) Not be fit for purpose
B) Fall foul of EU state aid/ competition rules
C) Funding: however I think bond investors could be persuaded

Anyone any bright ideas ... e.g. subsidize new MNC jobs ?

cYp
Would also fall foul of state aid rules, unless you're Germany and its Opel.

I'm glad you raised this.

A bit late tonight to produce the plan to get Ireland working, but one thing that is straightforward with unemployed school and college leavers is to keep them in high quality education and training. We have a lot of people doing nothing, and a mass programme of language learning could mean that in five years time we have a young population with a greatly raised range of foreign language skills. Literacy in English and maths could be raised too. We are still being told that we don't have enough people with good IT qualifications and skills. There are unfilled places on these courses: there is a much overdue need to get people into them and to upskill our IT workforce generally.
 

cyberianpan

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Messages
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Would also fall foul of state aid rules, unless you're Germany and its Opel.

I'm glad you raised this.

A bit late tonight to produce the plan to get Ireland working, but one thing that is straightforward with unemployed school and college leavers is to keep them in high quality education and training. We have a lot of people doing nothing, and a mass programme of language learning could mean that in five years time we have a young population with a greatly raised range of foreign language skills. Literacy in English and maths could be raised too. We are still being told that we don't have enough people with good IT qualifications and skills. There are unfilled places on these courses: there is a much overdue need to get people into them and to upskill our IT workforce generally.

It could... actually that reminds me

One of teh few expansionary areas on our economy are these:

EMEA service centers

Basically operations centers of US companies that either service clients (e.g. Google) or internal needs (e.g. Pfizer)

Obviosuly this work is at long term threat to lower cost destinations... but personally I've noticed in the "new media"/internet field we are building up an unassailable critical mass ... e..g. Google, Facebook, Pokerkings, eBay etc ...

Not greatly paid jobs... though that should remind us the IFSC wasn't at first and now say Funds Admin commands a hefty premium...

But the "new media" is a new area of expertise that will in time grow... obviously languages would aid (there's over 50 nationalities in Google alone now)

However this is an area where Fás has been involved in some of its worse frauds (sickening stuff where they contract people who haven't a clue to give very expensive courses)

I think it's worth setting up a dedicated training agency in this area (and beat Fás off if their heavies try to muscle in to get a slice of the pie)

cYp
 

CookieMonster

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Joined
Feb 19, 2005
Messages
34,659
Visit any social welfare office in the country, you'll see the majority there are young men. It's already happened.
 

greengoose2

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2009
Messages
25,391
A clear consequence of the current crisis is rising unemployment

It is very likely that recent college & school leavers are being disproportionately affected, the Live Register (a blunt instrument) shows increases as greatest in the sub 35 year old category

Looking at the Quarterly National Household Survey for say males we see a worrying pattern:

Code:
        15-19    20-24    25-34    35-44    45-54    55-59    60-64
 
Apr-Jun2003    15.8    8.1    5.2    3.9    3.6    2.9    *
Apr-Jun2009    40.0    30.2    18.0    12.3    10.4    7.7    8.0
Clearly unemployment is sky rocketing in the youth. However youth are affected differently by unemployment.

David Blanchflower, a very eminent economist was in Dublin recently and his presentation was insightful.



So clearly youth unemployment leads to irreversible damage to a large proportion of those unemployed. In simple terms Ireland has been investing in the human capital of these youth since birth: welfare, children's benefit, health and especially education.

Now we risk these assets being devalued, just as they were due to start producing. Not merely will their future worth be diminished - they may even turn to crime !

We need to consider intervening, as per this Irish Economy post on the topic Fás is a joke, at its best it may cater for construction workers


Also see



Philip Lane makes clear here why a classical Keynsian stimulus for Ireland is not appropriate

However what can we do for the young unemployed ?

Clearly an investment here could save us future fiscal loss , and stave off a reduction in nett human capital. Any ideas ?

cYp
Long post with nothing exceptional to say! You might cut out all the empty substance and give us your idea first. Mine is very simple. Create some jobs and the lads might just take them up. There are no jobs!

We pay useless politicians a king's ransom to run the country and all we get are monkeys with screwdrivers and no vision. So long as there are apologists and theorists the country will stagger from crisis to crisis.
 

An Gilladaker

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Joined
Apr 23, 2009
Messages
4,313
Long post with nothing exceptional to say! You might cut out all the empty substance and give us your idea first. Mine is very simple. Create some jobs and the lads might just take them up. There are no jobs!

We pay useless politicians a king's ransom to run the country and all we get are monkeys with screwdrivers and no vision. So long as there are apologists and theorists the country will stagger from crisis to crisis.
Very good post but don't expect any jobs from the theorists its all in their heads and will be replaced with more of the same shortly
 

truthisfree

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 16, 2009
Messages
6,249
An Irish assembled computer with an Irish built system like gNewSense adopted by all the government bodies and schools, stable, reliable and free, as well as the pride of having our own system here that is compatible with international standards and in keeping with the EU adoption of open source software in Brussels. Brazil have rolled out a successful version of this and several other countries are also doing so.

Ok it will not save the economy but will keep a hundred young bright lads occupied and interested for a long time and who knows what could grow out of it?

Edit: Importantly, aim for a very high build quality, we can never compete on the bottom end of the market so aim for the top.
 

Interista

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Joined
Jun 23, 2009
Messages
4,145
Although silly monikers like 'jagger generation' became supremely irritating, McWilliams was right when he said that this recession is going to primarily target young people, especially couples in their 20s and 30s with kids and massive mortgages. These families need to have two wage earners, and I'm sure there are many cases when one or both of them are losing their jobs.

By contrast, the generation aged 50 and over are suffering much less. They'll likely have paid for their homes long ago, and were possibly even able to sell a larger or second home at the height of the bubble, sorry, boom. It really is no country for young men....
 

Oriel27

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Apr 25, 2008
Messages
286
Although silly monikers like 'jagger generation' became supremely irritating, McWilliams was right when he said that this recession is going to primarily target young people, especially couples in their 20s and 30s with kids and massive mortgages. These families need to have two wage earners, and I'm sure there are many cases when one or both of them are losing their jobs.

By contrast, the generation aged 50 and over are suffering much less. They'll likely have paid for their homes long ago, and were possibly even able to sell a larger or second home at the height of the bubble, sorry, boom. It really is no country for young men....
I was born in 1981, and i knew from years ago we had a clear disadvantage.

when i left school in 1999, it was all the talk about the Hi Tec bubble, go be a technical engineer, etc.
as soon as i came out in 2002, everything was slowed down, and they were not hiring much.

I had to do a masters to get in to Intel (to be an engineer). If i had have been applying 5 years earlier, a diploma would have done the trick.

My point is, my generation were born 10 years too late.

guys i worked with in Intel, started there in 1994, the money was brilliant for them. They were getting bonuses all the time. By the time i started 10 years later, they were on mega bucks and in the good jobs.
I was on pennies as i was only starting.But the scale of pay increases for a new hire just wasnt going to happen. There seemed no room for improvement. 2 years later, pay freezes started, there was too many people working there. The age profile of managment was still young, so there was no prospects of moving up grades or anything.
A young engineering, only working 2/3 years with the company is left in limbo. So i left, because i was angry at the way the company paid the old staff massively compared to me, while i was doing all the cnuntish work for them (me and about 20 other new hires).

But i suppose it wasnt the companies fault. The country had, had its tech boom, and was winding down.

Its the same in construction, guys born around the 80's, are screwed now.
 

eyeswideopen

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Joined
Nov 6, 2009
Messages
260
I was born in 1981, and i knew from years ago we had a clear disadvantage.

when i left school in 1999, it was all the talk about the Hi Tec bubble, go be a technical engineer, etc.
as soon as i came out in 2002, everything was slowed down, and they were not hiring much.

I had to do a masters to get in to Intel (to be an engineer). If i had have been applying 5 years earlier, a diploma would have done the trick.

My point is, my generation were born 10 years too late.

guys i worked with in Intel, started there in 1994, the money was brilliant for them. They were getting bonuses all the time. By the time i started 10 years later, they were on mega bucks and in the good jobs.
I was on pennies as i was only starting.But the scale of pay increases for a new hire just wasnt going to happen. There seemed no room for improvement. 2 years later, pay freezes started, there was too many people working there. The age profile of managment was still young, so there was no prospects of moving up grades or anything.
A young engineering, only working 2/3 years with the company is left in limbo. So i left, because i was angry at the way the company paid the old staff massively compared to me, while i was doing all the cnuntish work for them (me and about 20 other new hires).

But i suppose it wasnt the companies fault. The country had, had its tech boom, and was winding down.

Its the same in construction, guys born around the 80's, are screwed now.
Thanks for your informative post. Its true that there is a lot of luck in which generation one is born and which class. I've always felt up till now very lucky and wondered if it could last. Most of us have grown up in relative peace, and with food and an education. Others here as we know from the Ryan report had it very hard.

We're now faced into an historic economic and political shift and there is a huge amount of uncertainty, except that the west in my opinion will not be able to live any more off the proceeds of cheap raw materials and cheap labour from elsewhere. Over the last twenty years fortunes have been made by a small number of people from the work of thousands. Unless production is socialised as it was to some extent in the former workers states, jobs will go where the cheapest wages and infrastructure can be found.

You didn't say what you are doing now. One thing you have is transferable skills and you are young, so you still have choices. Good luck with it, anyway.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,908
Before worrying about if our young people have jobs or not I think we have to deal primarily with the intensifying deflationary depression. If a house is burning down you get out first and forget about the contents.

The economy is out of control. We have no monetary policy or exchange rate mechanism. Our deflation is worsening and the government's fiscal policy is going to be the nail in the coffin.

There are no jobs full stop. Even for apprentice schemes for young people. Even if a person wants to work for nothing there is no demand. Consumption is plummeting and investment is non existent. Government expenditure is falling too, as they have no money and worse still they have to balance a ballooning deficit from expenditure that has little multiplier effect.

We are a basketcase of a country. Neo Feudalism on steroids. A corrupt stinking insolvent financial system being supported by the bluff of a completely incompetent bunch of idiots.

The EU know this. The IMF know this. They also know we are a country rich in resources and low on population density. They will gladly use us as collateral.

So unless consumption, investment, government expenditure or exports dramatically increase (exports will drop soon again as the global economy begins to depress again) unemployment will rocket and the issue of unemployment among young people is merely a symptom of a very flawed and broken system.
 

carlovian

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Joined
Jun 20, 2008
Messages
5,146
I was born in 1981, and i knew from years ago we had a clear disadvantage.

when i left school in 1999, it was all the talk about the Hi Tec bubble, go be a technical engineer, etc.
as soon as i came out in 2002, everything was slowed down, and they were not hiring much.

I had to do a masters to get in to Intel (to be an engineer). If i had have been applying 5 years earlier, a diploma would have done the trick.

My point is, my generation were born 10 years too late.

guys i worked with in Intel, started there in 1994, the money was brilliant for them. They were getting bonuses all the time. By the time i started 10 years later, they were on mega bucks and in the good jobs.
I was on pennies as i was only starting.But the scale of pay increases for a new hire just wasnt going to happen. There seemed no room for improvement. 2 years later, pay freezes started, there was too many people working there. The age profile of managment was still young, so there was no prospects of moving up grades or anything.
A young engineering, only working 2/3 years with the company is left in limbo. So i left, because i was angry at the way the company paid the old staff massively compared to me, while i was doing all the cnuntish work for them (me and about 20 other new hires).

But i suppose it wasnt the companies fault. The country had, had its tech boom, and was winding down.

Its the same in construction, guys born around the 80's, are screwed now.
Oriel, i was born in 1970 and when i left school in 1988 there was 18% unemployment in Ireland and the country was bankrupt.

I know things seem tough now but its not as bad as the 80's and economies move in cycles.

Ireland has a very well educated workforce and a young population and things will pick up.

Keep the faith !
 

sandar

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May 26, 2007
Messages
1,854
Amhran Nua has a policy that all unemployed undre rthe age of 23 would, after 90 days signing on, be offered a garaunteed, job, training or eductaion course, or paid internship.........thats a practical idea I think, although its not by any means the final answer
 

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