We won't be wiped out like PDs, insist Greens



nakatomi

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If they bring down the government because of inability to get through the Corporate donation ban (or even get it through) , they may claim to be the "watchdog"- much the same way as the PDs stopped the Bertie Bowl gained them some kudos.

Many people , myself included voted Green because they thought the Greens would never go into Government with Ahern, especially after the "Planet Bertie" speech.

I can see Ryan scraping in but not any of the others.
 

TODevastated

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yes you will and if you can't see it coming you are dimmer than I think you are

your gimmicks, Boyles tweeting and Ryans cycling wont be enough to save you

I'm sure people won't forget Sargent and his noble "I won't lead the Greens into govt with FF" stance and, he resigns, then he claims credit while taking the super junior seat at cabinet!!!!!!

Gormless and his hopless NIMBYism re the incinerator shows you up to be no better than any of the rest (the sad fact is that if we go for a small incinerator now who is say that, like the M50) it won't need to massively extended in the future)

but Gormless won't care as he won't be in the Dail-he will be retired on his big fat ministerial pension
 
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FakeViking

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Back in '07 I spent 20 minutes chatting with the local Cabbage Candidate at my doorstep. He was even taking pictures of the "No PD/FF B*S" sign on my letterbox. Much of the discussion focussed on Ahern the misLeader's incompetence and more. 3 weeks later and a sniff of power, the little green men were in orbit around Planet Bertie.

Needless to say he hasn't visited my doorstep since.
 

myrak

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Many people , myself included voted Green because they thought the Greens would never go into Government with Ahern, especially after the "Planet Bertie" speech.
Ditto for me. 'Fool me once...'. Lesson learned!
 

TODevastated

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at the last local election i put it to the local GP candidate and their reps that they were looking at a PD syle demolition at the next GE and they looked at me as if I had 40 heads and asked me why??
 

pjoz

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I can see Ryan scraping in but not any of the others.
There isn't a hope Ryan will repeat the feat of 6768 first preference votes,I'd be surprised and he'd be lucky if he gets half that.Won't be too many transfers for him either.End of Ryan's political career at next GE and the greens.Paddy Power go 2/1 that the greens will have no seat after next election,given our PR sstem and the greens reliance on transfers I think thats great value.You could even have a small cover bet at 6/4 of them having 1 seat
 

Squire Allworthy

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Let us see;

Tara Road; votes of confidence; support for the guarantee bluff; support over the whole banking fiasco; support for NAMA; support for the Anglo bluff, etc etc etc.

Why on earth would anyone vote for them. From a FF perspective they are more mailable than plasticine, you couldn't get more loyal lap dogs.
 

Mar Tweedy

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I agree that they will likely be wiped out. They'll be gone from the Dail for years but unlike the PDs they will be back, as environmental problems are not going away and will likely get worse.

They would have got an anti-FF vote last time as they seemed to be clearly in opposition to all FF policies. Ironically those opposed to the boom politics, who saw it was a mess in the making, voted Green precisely because they could see FF were leading us into a ditch. All those voters will never vote Green again.

It may put some people off voting Labour next time precisely because the Greens betrayed their voters. Labour may strenuously deny that they will go into Government with FF, but because of what the Greens did, many voters will not believe them. Not that FF will have enough seats to form a coalition with Labour in any case, but that will be the fear.

They will also lose many transfers. Labour voters might give them a transfer or two with an eye to a rainbow coalition but it will not be enough.

The core 'green' constituency will not be enough to get any of them over the line.
 

LeDroit

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Sargent and Ryan will be the only two elected. So they will have two TDs exactly as the PDs did but they won't dissolve as the PDs did as they are an environmental 'movement' while the PDs were a personalities cult who couldn't exist without the Dail.
 

Kevin Doyle

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Sargent and Ryan will be the only two elected. So they will have two TDs exactly as the PDs did but they won't dissolve as the PDs did as they are an environmental 'movement' while the PDs were a personalities cult who couldn't exist without the Dail.
I think Ryan could even be in trouble.

In any case the Greens are dead men walking and they have nobody to blame but themselves.
 

Mar Tweedy

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Sargent and Ryan will be the only two elected. So they will have two TDs exactly as the PDs did but they won't dissolve as the PDs did as they are an environmental 'movement' while the PDs were a personalities cult who couldn't exist without the Dail.
Doubt Eamon Ryan will make it. Quota in Dublin South will probably be about 10,000 or so, including boundary changes and presumed high turn-out. He only has to lose half his first preferences to make it difficult to be elected, ie to get only .33 of a quota in first preferences. If you look at the history of that constituency I think it is likely he will be gone.

Green party candidates Dublin South:
2009 Bye-election Elizabeth Davidson got 3.5% (1,846 1st prefs) (
2007 Eamon Ryan 11.1% (6,768 1st prefs / .66 quota) quota 10,201 - elected count 9
2002 Eamon Ryan 9.4% (5,222 1st prefs / .57 quota) quota 9,211 - elected count 9
1997 Gerry Boland 6.1% (3,539 1st prefs .37 quota) quota 9,665 - not elected.
1992 Roger Garland 3.8% (2,258/ .23 quota ) - not elected. quota 9,940
1989 Roger Garland 8.8% (4,771/ .55 quota) - elected , quota 9,028
 

joemomma

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I think most Greens are pretty realistic and know that based on current conditions a wipe-out is very much in prospect at the next election. However the key point is that the party will not fade out into oblivion like the PDs, it will keep plugging away because its structures are resilient and its agenda will continue to be relevant.

There was a possibility that with mass defections a critical mass could form around an "continuity Green party", but we've now seen the shape of these alternatives and it's clear they're not at the races.
 

LongShanks

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They have shown themselves for the power hungy shower they are. For me the Gormless NIMBYism referred to by an earlier poster was a watershed moment. I turn off the radio when I hear Ryan on it and I voted for him in the last election. I look forward to inviting him in for a cuppa and a frank chat shortly.
 

Mar Tweedy

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I think most Greens are pretty realistic and know that based on current conditions a wipe-out is very much in prospect at the next election. However the key point is that the party will not fade out into oblivion like the PDs, it will keep plugging away because its structures are resilient and its agenda will continue to be relevant.

There was a possibility that with mass defections a critical mass could form around an "continuity Green party", but we've now seen the shape of these alternatives and it's clear they're not at the races.
I'm sure the mainstream political parties saw the early greens and thought 'not at the races'. Interesting use of metaphor, by the way!

There definitely exists people whose natural political affiliation is green but who are too left-wing to vote for this Green Party because of the blanket bank guarantee and the resultant socialisation/nationalisation of debt.
 

Mister men

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They are history. No better than FF and more cowardly than any party witnessed on these isles. Bye bye yellows.
 

gijoe

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The PD's came back with 2 TD's and 2 Senators - that's about 4 more Oireachtas members than the Greens will have after the next election!
 

Biffomania

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The electorate will totally defoliate them and dump them on the compost heap for their treasonous & treacherous association with Bertie, Cowen & FF. And deservedly so.
 


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