There isn't a hope Ryan will repeat the feat of 6768 first preference votes,I'd be surprised and he'd be lucky if he gets half that.Won't be too many transfers for him either.End of Ryan's political career at next GE and the greens.Paddy Power go 2/1 that the greens will have no seat after next election,given our PR sstem and the greens reliance on transfers I think thats great value.You could even have a small cover bet at 6/4 of them having 1 seatI can see Ryan scraping in but not any of the others.
I think Ryan could even be in trouble.Sargent and Ryan will be the only two elected. So they will have two TDs exactly as the PDs did but they won't dissolve as the PDs did as they are an environmental 'movement' while the PDs were a personalities cult who couldn't exist without the Dail.
Doubt Eamon Ryan will make it. Quota in Dublin South will probably be about 10,000 or so, including boundary changes and presumed high turn-out. He only has to lose half his first preferences to make it difficult to be elected, ie to get only .33 of a quota in first preferences. If you look at the history of that constituency I think it is likely he will be gone.Sargent and Ryan will be the only two elected. So they will have two TDs exactly as the PDs did but they won't dissolve as the PDs did as they are an environmental 'movement' while the PDs were a personalities cult who couldn't exist without the Dail.
I'm sure the mainstream political parties saw the early greens and thought 'not at the races'. Interesting use of metaphor, by the way!I think most Greens are pretty realistic and know that based on current conditions a wipe-out is very much in prospect at the next election. However the key point is that the party will not fade out into oblivion like the PDs, it will keep plugging away because its structures are resilient and its agenda will continue to be relevant.
There was a possibility that with mass defections a critical mass could form around an "continuity Green party", but we've now seen the shape of these alternatives and it's clear they're not at the races.