Westminster Cannot Stop a No-Deal Brexit

bactrian

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This is not a discussion about whether Brexit is good or bad.

I do not believe that the parliament in Westminster can stop Boris Johnson effecting a "No-Deal" Brexit.

Westminster has passed 2 or 3 motions "stopping " a No-Deal Brexit.

BUT

The 31st October is a deadline set by European Union law.

Britain will exit the EU at midnight on that date unless the UK asks for an extension and the EU grants it.

I do not believe that the UK will ask for such extension, and , certainly so far, there is no reason why the EU would grant one.
 


Dearghoul

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Except of course by dumping him out in a vote of no confidence. That would make a GE all but inevitable after which anything even a withdrawal of Art 50 would be possible.

A GE would fulfil the precondition for a further extension, and as has been established that could be requested by the 'Queen in Parliament'
 

McTell

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No
What's the betting that her maj dies on 30 october?

Like, everything else has happened there, this is the one new extra spoke in the works to join all the other spokes in the works.
 

Dearghoul

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What's the betting that her maj dies on 30 october?

Like, everything else has happened there, this is the one new extra spoke in the works to join all the other spokes in the works.
Wouldn't discount that.

and Philip goes instead
 

Pyewacket

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I somehow don't think parliament can either stop a No Deal Brexit, or deliver a Brexit at all.

So it's up to Europe to tell them where they are. Because they have no clue.

Listening to British media is fascinating nowadays. They have literally floated off into a Shroedingers Exit. Like, until the box opens is the Brexit dead or alive? :)
 

owedtojoy

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This is not a discussion about whether Brexit is good or bad.

I do not believe that the parliament in Westminster can stop Boris Johnson effecting a "No-Deal" Brexit.

Westminster has passed 2 or 3 motions "stopping " a No-Deal Brexit.

BUT

The 31st October is a deadline set by European Union law.

Britain will exit the EU at midnight on that date unless the UK asks for an extension and the EU grants it.

I do not believe that the UK will ask for such extension, and , certainly so far, there is no reason why the EU would grant one.
It is in the EU interests to keeping spinning this out, so they have no reason not to grant an extension. The Commission would - the only person who might stop it is Emanuel Macron.
 

McTell

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No
No deal will be terrible for the brits, but why should the eu cut itself off from the 5th biggest economy? No point in both sides suffering.

Anyway, yes, phil the greek to pop his clogs on 30th Oct, what odds, I say 5-1.

I'm guessing the queen in mourning for X weeks could not be approached for anything by mere commoner MPs. EU grants an extension on 10 november. The whole saga staggers on.
 

parentheses

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It is in the EU interests to keeping spinning this out, so they have no reason not to grant an extension. The Commission would - the only person who might stop it is Emanuel Macron.
The British may decide to go.
 

owedtojoy

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Incidentally, latest YouGov poll:

Con 25% (+1)
Lab 21% (+1)
LD 20% (+1)
BP 19% (-2)
Gre 8% (-1)
SNP 4% (-1)
PC 1% (-)

Parliament may bring down a Boris Johnson Government, in which case an extension might be forced on him by a General Election.

It is hard to see how with a new Prime Minister an Election can be avoided.
 

Pyewacket

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No deal will be terrible for the brits, but why should the eu cut itself off from the 5th biggest economy? No point in both sides suffering.

Anyway, yes, phil the greek to pop his clogs on 30th Oct, what odds, I say 5-1.

I'm guessing the queen in mourning for X weeks could not be approached for anything by mere commoner MPs. EU grants an extension on 10 november. The whole saga staggers on.
Because the Brits won't follow through. They have been thoroughly humiliated on the world stage, they can't maintain their position as the world's blah-blah-blah when the money is not coming in.

You really think the money will still come in? Hah-hah.
 

owedtojoy

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The British may decide to go.
Go where?

The day after they leave with no-deal they would be back in Brussels looking for a Free Trade Deal. And all the same issues (the divorce bill, the Irish border) would still need to be settled.

The only value of No-Deal is as a threat - once it has been done, it is useless as a bargaining chip. What other bargaining chip could Britain use as its economy tanks?
 

owedtojoy

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Go where?

The day after they leave with no-deal they would be back in Brussels looking for a Free Trade Deal. And all the same issues (the divorce bill, the Irish border) would still need to be settled.

The only value of No-Deal is as a threat - once it has been done, it is useless as a bargaining chip. What other bargaining chip could Britain use as its economy tanks?
To answer my own question, Boris Johnson obviously thinks the UK's best bargaining chip is his roguish charm, and he can win the EU over by telling a few jokes and waving a kipper over his head.
 

Tippytop

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It is in the EU interests to keeping spinning this out, so they have no reason not to grant an extension. The Commission would - the only person who might stop it is Emanuel Macron.
The EU cannot grant an extension that is not sought, (if by some means they did, the PM would have to accept it and who is going to force him to do that?) How would you get such a motion on the order paper? Can you imagine how that would be viewed in the UK "EU forces parliament to stay in E.U." Invasion, subjgation, EU overrides the people for the first time since 1066 - Game over
 

owedtojoy

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The EU cannot grant an extension that is not sought, (if by some means they did, the PM would have to accept it and who is going to force him to do that?) How would you get such a motion on the order paper? Can you imagine how that would be viewed in the UK "EU forces parliament to stay in E.U." Invasion, subjgation, EU overrides the people for the first time since 1066 - Game over
Granting an extension if the British sought one was understood by me, as it might in the case of a General Election.

The EU could hardly declare a country to be still n the EU if it declares it is not.

I think the EU is prepared to face down threats of No-Deal, and accept the challenge if the UK goes down that path.
 

Pyewacket

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Granting an extension if the British sought one was understood by me, as it might in the case of a General Election.

The EU could hardly declare a country to be still n the EU if it declares it is not.

I think the EU is prepared to face down threats of No-Deal, and accept the challenge if the UK goes down that path.
It is the Brits who are running round like headless chickens. FFS, the Big Revolution is a wet fart.

They just cannot find the Churchill who will promise them blood, sweat, toil and tears, because in the end they will prevail.

Why? Because they are under no threat at all, they did it to themselves. They have to deal with their own shit the bed antics.

They cannot get off the pot. They cannot do anything. Brexit has exposed what chancers and charlatans run the UK.

That is a problem for the UK. They will have to deal with it. At the moment they are relying on the EU not to cut them off and leave them with their own mess.. Because that is what really frightens them.
 

Surkov

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The thought of a GE terrified both Con an Lab parties. The Lib Dems are as much of a threat to Labour as the BP are to the Con party.
 

Surkov

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Would a GE see Corbyn in power.

If not, who would end up in power.

Two simple questions that too many here are repeatedly dodging,
 

owedtojoy

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The thought of a GE terrified both Con an Lab parties. The Lib Dems are as much of a threat to Labour as the BP are to the Con party.
A General Election has been Labour's preferred option for the past two years.
 

Pyewacket

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A General Election has been Labour's preferred option for the past two years.
Well let's be honest now, it is the Tories' least preferred one.

That is why they will run leadership elections till the cows come home, in the vain hope it persuades a very pissed off electorate that some change is happening.

The last time a Tory PM went to the electorate saying "Give me an increased majority so I can Brexit you" the ****ing DUP ended up in charge.

Like any one in Britain would vote for those WitchFinder Generals. But they ****ed it up for Britain.

Hah bloody hah.
 

Ireniall

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Go where?

The day after they leave with no-deal they would be back in Brussels looking for a Free Trade Deal. And all the same issues (the divorce bill, the Irish border) would still need to be settled.

The only value of No-Deal is as a threat - once it has been done, it is useless as a bargaining chip. What other bargaining chip could Britain use as its economy tanks?
It seems to me to be entirely useless as a threat and in any case I don't think that threats are the right way to conduct negotiations. It's one of the idiocies of that brash 'successful businessman' type of ignorant Brexiteer that everything can be sorted with pitiful amounts of money, car dealers and hard deals conducted by 'tough' negotiators. Most of these people never had a proper job in their lives. It's not as if these negotiations are a game of poker. For those prepared to look and absorb the truth it's perfectly obvious what cards each player is holding and if you are attempting to bluff it will be seen as such if your cards don't support it and you will be called.

Anyway here's Michael Deacon's take on what threatening the EU with no deal is like

The British Government might as well be saying: "If I shoot myself in the foot with this machine gun, it's going to make a terrible mess of your carpet. Imagine the stain. Could take you a whole hour to get it out. All that scrubbing. Be a real nuisance for you. Plus you'd have to put up with the horrible sound of my screaming, as I writhe around in unspeakable agony on your floor until the paramedics arrive. Wouldn't be much fun for you, would it? Could ruin your evening. Do you really want that? Are you sure
 


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