Westminster Cannot Stop a No-Deal Brexit

owedtojoy

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It seems to me to be entirely useless as a threat and in any case I don't think that threats are the right way to conduct negotiations. It's one of the idiocies of that brash 'successful businessman' type of ignorant Brexiteer that everything can be sorted with pitiful amounts of money, car dealers and hard deals conducted by 'tough' negotiators. Most of these people never had a proper job in their lives. It's not as if these negotiations are a game of poker. For those prepared to look and absorb the truth it's perfectly obvious what cards each player is holding and if you are attempting to bluff it will be seen as such if your cards don't support it and you will be called.

Anyway here's Michael Deacon's take on what threatening the EU with no deal is like

The British Government might as well be saying: "If I shoot myself in the foot with this machine gun, it's going to make a terrible mess of your carpet. Imagine the stain. Could take you a whole hour to get it out. All that scrubbing. Be a real nuisance for you. Plus you'd have to put up with the horrible sound of my screaming, as I writhe around in unspeakable agony on your floor until the paramedics arrive. Wouldn't be much fun for you, would it? Could ruin your evening. Do you really want that? Are you sure
Good story ...

To me the No-Deal threat is like two guys in a small boat, one has a life jacket the other has not. The guy without the life jacket shouts at the other "Give me your life jacket, or I will sink this bloody boat!"
 


owedtojoy

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Well let's be honest now, it is the Tories' least preferred one.

That is why they will run leadership elections till the cows come home, in the vain hope it persuades a very pissed off electorate that some change is happening.

The last time a Tory PM went to the electorate saying "Give me an increased majority so I can Brexit you" the ****ing DUP ended up in charge.

Like any one in Britain would vote for those WitchFinder Generals. But they ****ed it up for Britain.

Hah bloody hah.
Labour must think they can win. I suppose Corbyn was such a surprise last time out that for a while that might have seemed plausible.

But It is only one possible outcome. Corbyn might cobble a majority together with the Lib Dems, the SNP and others.

But another possible outcome would be Conservative & Brexit Party majority that could agree a No-Deal exit. But would the Philip Hammond types in the Tories agree with that?

There are multiple uncertainties. Tories vs BP vs Labour vs Lib Dems, with split Leave or Remain votes in some constituencies and most MPs getting only a plurality of votes.

A hung Parliament is the most likely outcome. And that probably means a new referendum.
 

Pyewacket

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Labour must think they can win. I suppose Corbyn was such a surprise last time out that for a while that might have seemed plausible.

But It is only one possible outcome. Corbyn might cobble a majority together with the Lib Dems, the SNP and others.

But another possible outcome would be Conservative & Brexit Party majority that could agree a No-Deal exit. But would the Philip Hammond types in the Tories agree with that?

There are multiple uncertainties. Tories vs BP vs Labour vs Lib Dems, with split Leave or Remain votes in some constituencies and most MPs getting only a plurality of votes.

A hung Parliament is the most likely outcome. And that probably means a new referendum.
You would have to be Mystic Meg to tell us what the composition of parliament wil be after the next GE.

One thing is ****ing sure. There is no will of the people for Brexit.

They want the whole shit to go away.
 

Dearghoul

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Whatever about his other qualities, Corbyn isn't a natural at cobbling together coalitions. In a four way tie which seems like one of the likelier results of any GE in the UK, the remain leaning parties might be able to govern with the support of the SNP and Plaid and the Greens, even given likely Labour defections but it wouldn't be for Corbyn to involve himself in any of that coalition making with the impure. I'd imagine he'd be quite sniffy about the whole business.

Home Secretary at most.
 

Pyewacket

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Whatever about his other qualities, Corbyn isn't a natural at cobbling together coalitions. In a four way tie which seems like one of the likelier results of any GE in the UK, the remain leaning parties might be able to govern with the support of the SNP and Plaid and the Greens, even given likely Labour defections but it wouldn't be for Corbyn to involve himself in any of that coalition making with the impure. I'd imagine he'd be quite sniffy about the whole business.

Home Secretary at most.
This has to be a piss take. Corbyn in charge of immigration, justice, the courts and policing?

That would be the Socialist Republic of England. :)
 

Dearghoul

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If you make him Chancellor he'll privatise everything on day 2 and the coalition falls on day 4

Where would you put him?
 

Dearghoul

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You've upset my one now with your oul' carry on.

I don't have anything agin' Jeremy C, and indeed he has fine qualities, but I'm getting a little bit impatient with the assumption that the coming contest will be a Labour Tory one despite all evidence to the contrary.
 

Ireniall

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Good story ...

To me the No-Deal threat is like two guys in a small boat, one has a life jacket the other has not. The guy without the life jacket shouts at the other "Give me your life jacket, or I will sink this bloody boat!"
Lol-we should probably have a separate thread for these analogies
 

Ireniall

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Whatever about his other qualities, Corbyn isn't a natural at cobbling together coalitions. In a four way tie which seems like one of the likelier results of any GE in the UK, the remain leaning parties might be able to govern with the support of the SNP and Plaid and the Greens, even given likely Labour defections but it wouldn't be for Corbyn to involve himself in any of that coalition making with the impure. I'd imagine he'd be quite sniffy about the whole business.

Home Secretary at most.
What an absolute quagmire-but absolutely fascinating. Apart from being anit -Brexit- I'd love to see another referendum just to see what they'd do. It's nearly worse than a blood sport.
 

Dearghoul

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I'd like to see another ref as well Ireniall. I'm pretty sure what the outcome would be.
No matter how much the Brexiters are hanging tough, they're shouting down all calls for one for one reason alone.
 

Pyewacket

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I'd like to see another ref as well Ireniall. I'm pretty sure what the outcome would be.
No matter how much the Brexiters are hanging tough, they're shouting down all calls for one for one reason alone.

Well no one gives a shit about Brexit anymore

They are still poor, frazzled, indebted, fat from microwave,meals, downloading shit on their PCs, drinking shit Aussie wines, angry, upset, being bullied by bosses, and colleages.and that is just the|MPs/
 

owedtojoy

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This has to be a piss take. Corbyn in charge of immigration, justice, the courts and policing?

That would be the Socialist Republic of England. :)
It would the crowning joke if the Herculean effort to push Britain into the sunny uplands of a neo-liberal, shock therapy capitalist paradise ended as the socialist nightmare with a Corbyn government bringing whole industries back into public ownership, without EU competition rules to stop him.

"Be careful what you wish for" is one useful rule to remember.
"Beware of unforeseen outcomes" is another.
 

owedtojoy

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I had a look at the YouGov poll broken down by age >50, and <50

Under 5050 and Over
Con
19%​
30%​
Lab
29%​
14%​
LibDem
21%​
20%​
SNP
4%​
5%​
Plaid
0%​
2%​
Brex
13%​
26%​
Green
11%​
6%​
Other
2%​
2%​

A clear generational divide, except in the LibDems and SNP.
 

owedtojoy

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RemainLeave
Con
18%​
34%​
Lab
27%​
10%​
LibDem
35%​
4%​
SNP
6%​
3%​
Plaid
1%​
1%​
Brex
1%​
41%​
Green
12%​
4%​
Other
1%​
2%​

The same poll for Remainers and Leavers (i.e. how they voted in the referendum). 77% of those who voted Leave would vote Conservative, Brexit or Other (UKIP), while 80% of those who voted Remain would vote Labour, LibDems, SNP or Green.

The LibDems are the most popular party among Leavers, the Brexit Party among Leavers. That is very much a problem for the leaders of the two major parties, who ever they may be.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
LibDems most popular party among Remainers, OTJ, I'd suggest?
 

McTell

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No
Because the Brits won't follow through. They have been thoroughly humiliated on the world stage, they can't maintain their position as the world's blah-blah-blah when the money is not coming in.

You really think the money will still come in? Hah-hah.

Yes, but it's a 2-way street and we / the EU sells more to the brits than they sell to us.

Blame wars aside, who will actually benefit from no deal? The EU bureaucracy.

If there is a no confidence motion or similar on 30 October, that will be a UK law reality. UK law is inferior to EU law, and EU law says they are leaving on 30 October.

If the EU extends the deadline of 30 October, that implies some sort of extra talks, and yet the EU says the uk deal is done and so there can be no more talks.

Also if the EU extends the deadline of 30 October, a new uk no-deal government is not obliged to reply or accept.
 
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livingstone

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OP partially correct - it is very difficult for Parliament to prevent no deal.

There are basically three options open to Parliament:

1. Vote no confidence, bring down a Government pursuing no deal. That could then have two outcomes: 1A - no alternative Government can be formed, a General Election with all the uncertainty that brings; or 1B -some time limited alternative Government of national unity led by some figure like Keir Starmer is formed on the basis of avoiding no deal).

2. Compel Johnson to seek an election through primary legislation, which is what happened in April.

3. Primary legislation revoking Article 50.

Option 1 is the simplest. There will be window between summer recess and conference recess. But it's not clear that enough Tories would vote no confidence in a Johnson Government, or that all opposition MPs would do likewise. If the VONC passed, it would mean a new Government taking office in mid-September on a pledge to seek an extension (compiled of probably half the Labour PP, LibDems, SNP and a smattering of Tories - this is hugely unlikely), or a GE in mid-October, with a possible first act of that new Government going to seek an extension at the October Council on 15 October - though timing would be extremely tight and an extraordinary council may need to be requested and agreed.

Option 2 has been done before, but really only worked because May was acquiescent. If she had wanted to get around the Cooper Boles Letwin Bill, she could have, by simply requesting an extension in line with the Act, but then refusing any conditions the EU placed on it. The only way for the Bill to guarantee avoidance of no deal would be to require that an extension is sought and that a PM must accept any extension and any conditions on offer by the EU.

There is some debate on whether Option 3 is possible without a Money Resolution which can only be moved by the Government. Even if that is the case, the Commons could change the standing orders. But there does not seem to be any majority in favour of unilateral revocation now.

Parliament has given itself plenty of opportunities to debate these issues. The Northern Ireland legislation going through last week requires convening of Parliament at regular intervals, ostensibly for reporting purposes but that will give Parliament the opportunity to debate motions or, if they take control of the order paper as they did in April, legislation. But the effectiveness of those motions and legislation are questionable.
 

CatullusV

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Incidentally, latest YouGov poll:

Con 25% (+1)
Lab 21% (+1)
LD 20% (+1)
BP 19% (-2)
Gre 8% (-1)
SNP 4% (-1)
PC 1% (-)

Parliament may bring down a Boris Johnson Government, in which case an extension might be forced on him by a General Election.

It is hard to see how with a new Prime Minister an Election can be avoided.
Brexit would likely have brought down three PMs in that case - and that would before it had even taken place.
 


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