Westminster Cannot Stop a No-Deal Brexit

Surkov

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A General Election has been Labour's preferred option for the past two years.
Have they spent the last two years predicting the amount of votes they would lose to the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems in the EP elections.

It's not plain sailing for Labour. They are terrified.
 


Surkov

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Percentage odds of a no-deal brexit? Has to be up to *at least* 40%. The more delay, the more likely a no-deal becomes.
 

Dearghoul

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The odds have shortened on other options considerably....

You do the fake news.

I'll do the book.
 

CatullusV

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Have they spent the last two years predicting the amount of votes they would lose to the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems in the EP elections.

It's not plain sailing for Labour. They are terrified.
Sadly true. Sad in the sense that with an adequate leader they would trounce the opposition. A friend of mine is a former Tory councilor and told me last week that his local branch had a policy of not attacking Corbyn on the anti-semitism front. They need him where he is and have identified a few Labour MPs who could not simply take the reins but who could swiftly turn the party around.
 

raetsel

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The one likely outcome of Boris Johnson's expected crowning as Tory leader later today is considerably more dissent in the Conservative Party. It may in turn lead to moves in a parliament to form a national government as well, as was the case in 1931, when some Labour MPs abandoned their party loyalty and put (as they saw it) their country first.
It now looks like a realistic possibility.
 

Surkov

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Sadly true. Sad in the sense that with an adequate leader they would trounce the opposition. A friend of mine is a former Tory councilor and told me last week that his local branch had a policy of not attacking Corbyn on the anti-semitism front. They need him where he is and have identified a few Labour MPs who could not simply take the reins but who could swiftly turn the party around.
Is there an anti-semitism problem in the LP do you think? Perhaps the next leader elected will be an anti-semite? Or a communist?

Corbyn's voting base within the party is still there. They are not going change their core beliefs easily. Wouldn't they quite easily elect a replacement communist if it came to it?

If anything the LP might become even more extreme in the decade ahead. Look at the nutjobs coming to the fore in the Democratic Party. IT all started with Obama. Perhaps with the LP we will say it all started with Corbyn and their will never be a return to 'normal' if you can call Blairism normal lol.

So tell me, who do you feel could normalise the LP? What is their path to power?
 

Patslatt1

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Percentage odds of a no-deal brexit? Has to be up to *at least* 40%. The more delay, the more likely a no-deal becomes.
TECHNICALITIES OF TWO ROUND SECOND REFERENDUM
The newly elected EU president from Germany along with Angela Merkel favour a further extension for the UK Brexit October deadline. They will likely get their way. Only France seems to think the October Brexit deadline should be enforced to force the UK to make up its mind.
A second referendum is likely as Parliament will block a hard Brexit that would trigger a massive,prolonged recession and leave the UK without any free trade major trading partners.No doubt PM Boris Johnson who always looks out for number one secretly favours a referendum as a Johnson-led crashout Brexit recession would quickly end his leadership after a collapse of the Tory party in the next general election.
Johnson played the hard Brexit card just to win the leadership vote of Tory party members who generally are elderly high income people.He will pretend to be saddened but offer little resistance as Parliament blocks a hard Brexit crash out.
That will lead to another referendum,with the likely options of 1. May's deal 2. Remain 3.May's deal plus staying in the customs union 4.Crash out hard Brexit. The referendum design will need to prevent confusion over these options. Two rounds would be needed to clarify the choices because 1 and 4 split the Brexiteer vote while 2 and 3 split Remain.
No. 3 removes the need for the Irish border Backstop. It would also allow young Brits seamlessly to vote the UK back into the EU.
The two options with the highest vote would square off in the second round of the referendum. The six potential options could be 1 v2 ,1 v3, 1v4, 2v3,2v4,3v4.
Brexiteer support is strong among low income,less educated voters in low income areas who would tend to be confused by the choices and have a lower voting turnout than Remain.
 
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Dearghoul

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He's PM because England doesn't do complicated.

Pats has made a good case for how a second referendum would be fairly run, but it's a bit of a non starter as far as implementation on the 'unsophisticated electorate' is concerned.
 

Patslatt1

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The problem with the post is that Boris doesn't do complicated. :)
Boris has a knack for delegation that served him well in London where he acted like a chairman of the board and set the style of government but avoided the details of serious work that he delegated to subordinates.
 

Patslatt1

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He's PM because England doesn't do complicated.

Pats has made a good case for how a second referendum would be fairly run, but it's a bit of a non starter as far as implementation on the 'unsophisticated electorate' is concerned.
Given the polarisation of the electorate and intensity of feelings over Brexit, a second referendum can't be seen to limit the options or present them in a confusing way. It will be difficult to reduce confusion but a two round vote would likely minimise it. In a number of countries, election of the national leader occurs in two rounds where the two candidates with the highest share of votes square off in the second round. If one candidate gets 50% or more in the first round,that's enough to win and the second round is cancelled.
 

wombat

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Another referendum would not solve the Brexit problem because the Brexiters would not accept a result to Remain. They would destabilise the UK govt and probably the EU as well. The only hope would be that a general election would give a decisive result, either a Tory Brexit majority or a Liberal Remain majority. The problem is getting a majority for anything in Westminster.
 

owedtojoy

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An article predicting that Johnson will not take take on the Brexit Party because no matter how far right he goes in Brexit promises, Farage will go even farther, splitting that vote.

This argues that he will leave the political institutions in October, and agree to stay in the customs union and single market while a Free Trade Deal is negotiated. That is kicking the backstop can down the road, but might pass muster with the EU.

In 5 years, the backstop may be someone else's problem.

 

owedtojoy

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Another referendum would not solve the Brexit problem because the Brexiters would not accept a result to Remain. They would destabilise the UK govt and probably the EU as well. The only hope would be that a general election would give a decisive result, either a Tory Brexit majority or a Liberal Remain majority. The problem is getting a majority for anything in Westminster.
No deal would not solve the Brexit problem either, because a free Trade Deal would still have to be negotiated, with all the same issues (Irish border, divorce bill).

Johnson is down to a majority of 2 (even with DUP) so he does not have great room for manoeuvre. An election might see him having to deal with the Brexit Party and "losing control" over Brexit.

He is pretty much between a rock and a hard place.
 

LISTOWEL MAN

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i hope brexit destroys the GFA

Look at all the illegal **** the IRA did since April 1998
 

McTell

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No
//

He is pretty much between a rock and a hard place.

He is. Labour have a chance to bring a motion of no confidence on 2 september, due to diaries going forward.

Bojo will presumably claim up until 30 october that he is "trying to get a deal out of the eu" (no progress is all the eu's fault). He will show endless approaches that have been rebuffed. The script writes itself.

Then the big jump.
 

Round tower

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No deal would not solve the Brexit problem either, because a free Trade Deal would still have to be negotiated, with all the same issues (Irish border, divorce bill).

Johnson is down to a majority of 2 (even with DUP) so he does not have great room for manoeuvre. An election might see him having to deal with the Brexit Party and "losing control" over Brexit.

He is pretty much between a rock and a hard place.

They dont havee a majority even with the DUP support
HOC seats - 650
Conservitives - 311
DUP - 10
Total - 321

HOC - SF - 7 = Total - 643
Magority figure needed 321


They reckon that their is 40 Cons. MP's who will revolt against Boris NDE
 

Surkov

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Once the UK leaves the EU, will it encourage other countries to follow suit? Italy, for sure. But other countries? One thing is for sure, once the UK leaves, no one will join the EU. Can you imagine Norway changing its mind? Nope.

The real worry is the Eurozone. Is there a viable way to gradually dismantle it?
 

owedtojoy

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Once the UK leaves the EU, will it encourage other countries to follow suit? Italy, for sure. But other countries? One thing is for sure, once the UK leaves, no one will join the EU. Can you imagine Norway changing its mind? Nope.

The real worry is the Eurozone. Is there a viable way to gradually dismantle it?
Dream on. How the old “pro-anti” EU framing becomes obsolete after EU elections | VoteWatch

By now, and even less so after the elections, there are very few (relevant) political forces that want their country to leave the EU, or want to dissolve the EU as such.
Rather, each of them wants to shape and use the EU instruments to achieve specific policy objectives that are important to them. As a result, we will see a lot of ad-hoc coalition building (especially in the European Parliament, but also in broader EU politics), between and among traditional and new parties.
Balkan countries are continuing negotiating with the EU. I am sure Ukraine will continue negotiations, though any union with Ukraine is a long way off. Brexit Britain will soon find to its dismay that it not the centre of the world, and Boris can shove his "new golden age" up his hole.

How many countries are queuing up to join Putin's farcical Eurasian Economic Union by the way? Any chance of him taking 12 million Turks? ;)
 


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