Wexford: Call the next GE Results


Paddy{ie

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2012
Messages
1,495
I think FF have boosted their chances selecting 2 candidates. How do you rate the two sitting TDs for FG, would you say Kehoe is vulnerable?
The Cuckoo Kehoe is indeed very vulnerable.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
224,670
The wisdom of not running a FF candidate for 2 elections running must be questioned. But sin scéal eile.
At both times it was the smart thing to do. Ask SF should they have run. Both FF and FG will run a candidate next time. If that president is popular and doing a good job, either may be wise not to run then in the next election
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,016
I think FF have boosted their chances selecting 2 candidates. How do you rate the two sitting TDs for FG, would you say Kehoe is vulnerable?
It was tight last time, but FG's vote management was excellent. With them being higher in the polls nationally that should bump both FG TDs up a bit, so to me Wallace is the most vulnerable. Eventually the shine wears off most novelty independents, plus it doesn't need much more of his FF vote returning home to put him right back in the pack.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
51,910
Wexford has had an Independent since 2002 other than the Dr Twomey defection to FG and except for 2007-11. It isnt the alien concept it used to be in this electorally traditional county, where for decades we had 2-2-1 (FF-FG-Labour).
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,016
So that’s still it then? ‘If you don’t believe me, I’ll just post the same thing and run away again’
What do you mean "run away again"?

And for some reason, you think that 46,250 posts in 13 years is some proof of you telling the truth? Never mind the drivel, look at the quantity eh?
No, I didn't say that either. But posters who have been here a long time know that I've given info on election and referendum dates long before they were in the public domain, I've given advance notice of candidate selection and addition, I even mapped out the Promissory Note deal with the ECB several weeks before it was announced. Whether you believe what I post or not is entirely up to you, I don't feel any particular need to convince you.

If you post that Mick Wallace meekly does whatever he’s told to do in the Dail by Clare Daly, then be man enough to prove what you say is true, or do you want to down the road here of everyone spewing out untrue statements.
Or are you just plain cowardly?
I never said I could prove it. I said it's widely known.
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,016
The wisdom of not running a FF candidate for 2 elections running must be questioned. But sin scéal eile.
Absolutely zero benefit in 2011, and highly questionable benefit this year.
 

Paddy{ie

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2012
Messages
1,495
I never said I could prove it. I said it's widely known.
What you actually originally wrote was the following. I don’t see the words ‘widely known’ there.

“Says the poster whose chosen TD, Mick Wallace, meekly does everything Clare Daly tells him to in the Dail. Anyway your whip argument doesn't stand up - if you vote for a party candidate, you have a right to expect that candidate, if elected, to vote for party policy in the Dail. And they have every right to express a dissenting point of view, but they also commit in advance, writing, to abide by the majority decisions of their parliamentary party. Failing to do that is a betrayal of the people who voted for them.”

So, what you’re saying basically is that you can make any statement about someone, and run to a defence of ‘widely known’ when called out. I hope you’re not a solicitor.
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,016
What you actually originally wrote was the following. I don’t see the words ‘widely known’ there.

“Says the poster whose chosen TD, Mick Wallace, meekly does everything Clare Daly tells him to in the Dail. Anyway your whip argument doesn't stand up - if you vote for a party candidate, you have a right to expect that candidate, if elected, to vote for party policy in the Dail. And they have every right to express a dissenting point of view, but they also commit in advance, writing, to abide by the majority decisions of their parliamentary party. Failing to do that is a betrayal of the people who voted for them.”

So, what you’re saying basically is that you can make any statement about someone, and run to a defence of ‘widely known’ when called out. I hope you’re not a solicitor.
A solicitor would only be required if the statement was defamatory, which mine isn't. It would be considered fair comment.
 

Paddy{ie

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2012
Messages
1,495
A solicitor would only be required if the statement was defamatory, which mine isn't. It would be considered fair comment.
And what would you consider, here on P.ie, the fact that you made a statement that was a lie (you said that you mentioned it was ‘widely known’, when in fact you hadn’t written that at all).
Yes, not a court, but still your reputation here is judged by the veracity of what you write (in this case, about what you say you wrote, but hadn’t written) , and you start losing respect once you lie and try wriggling.
You see, HBAP, you can try give the impression that you are someone to be considered some kind of expert on matters, but if in the simplest of debates like this one, you lie so obviously, how does that reflect on the opinions others would have other posts you make?
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,016
And what would you consider, here on P.ie, the fact that you made a statement that was a lie (you said that you mentioned it was ‘widely known’, when in fact you hadn’t written that at all).
It's not a lie, I thought I had said that. Anyway, it is widely known. Happy now?

Yes, not a court, but still your reputation here is judged by the veracity of what you write (in this case, about what you say you wrote, but hadn’t written) , and you start losing respect once you lie and try wriggling.
No, it wasn't a lie.

You see, HBAP, you can try give the impression that you are someone to be considered some kind of expert on matters, but if in the simplest of debates like this one, you lie so obviously, how does that reflect on the opinions others would have other posts you make?
I didn't lie. But posters who have been on here for a long time know that I've given plenty of advance notice of things that subsequently came into the public domain. By the way I should add to that list earlier that I tried hard to tip posters off about the source of the Anglo Tapes - not easy to do given libel law, I could only drop hints that very few posters were mentally set up to understand. Your opinion of me is fairly irrelevant to me.
 

SweenyTodd

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 21, 2018
Messages
1,551
John Browne was hard working and decent pro-life TD. James will have little problem keeping his seat.
 

Paddy{ie

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2012
Messages
1,495
It's not a lie, I thought I had said that. Anyway, it is widely known. Happy now?



No, it wasn't a lie.



I didn't lie. But posters who have been on here for a long time know that I've given plenty of advance notice of things that subsequently came into the public domain. By the way I should add to that list earlier that I tried hard to tip posters off about the source of the Anglo Tapes - not easy to do given libel law, I could only drop hints that very few posters were mentally set up to understand. Your opinion of me is fairly irrelevant to me.
Thanks for the clarification. You made a comment. You were called out. The ‘I thought I said that’ excuse then comes out (which you could easily have checked beforehand, as it was (n’t) the written word). So what you’re doing basically is repeating heresay on a subject that you haven’t actually had personal experience of, and passing it off as fact.
 

Hitchcock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
9,750
None of which is relevant to what I said. Wallace meekly does everything Clare Daly tells him to in the Dail.
You know HBAP - not withstanding your FG affiliations I have some time for your posts and insights but occasionally you post utter nonsense (remember you chastised Paul Murphy for going to Israel as it had nothing to do with his constituency!!) and this is right up there - it's patronizing in the extreme to both deputies and factually incorrect.
 

automaticforthepeople

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 22, 2012
Messages
4,773
The last seat is traditionally a dogfight between FF, FG and SF. I dont see a SF surge that some polls have shown. The presidential exit poll showed 15% support nationally. But a word of caution: turnout was pathetic (even by the standards of the turnout nationally) in some of their strongholds like MLMs constituency Dublin Central. They may do better in the GE.
There is only one certainty in Wexford politics and that is that Enniscorthy district will elect 2 TD's and that Wexford district will elect normally one. So that's why Brendan Howlin and James Browne will be elected regardless and indeed their successors are also assured. The 2nd Enniscorthy TD will come from between Mythen and Paul Kehoe. Mythen is more likely at the moment, not because of any increase in support for SF but because FG are running Verona Murphy who is based in New Ross where Kehoe has also worked hard. He will lose votes to her and if she polls well she may pass him out and take a seat.
Normally I would have thought Wallace would be regarded as the New Ross TD as he had a clear run of it. Now however he will lose to her in that district leaving the Gorey district with just one serious contender Michael D'arcy. FF have made a mistake in not running Malcolm Byrne who would at least challenge D'arcy for a seat.

My prediction in order of election are D'arcy, Howlin, Browne, Mythen and Murphy. On the face of it SF gain from independent but those of us who read the tea leaves see it as something else.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
224,670
There is only one certainty in Wexford politics and that is that Enniscorthy district will elect 2 TD's and that Wexford district will elect normally one. So that's why Brendan Howlin and James Browne will be elected regardless and indeed their successors are also assured. The 2nd Enniscorthy TD will come from between Mythen and Paul Kehoe. Mythen is more likely at the moment, not because of any increase in support for SF but because FG are running Verona Murphy who is based in New Ross where Kehoe has also worked hard. He will lose votes to her and if she polls well she may pass him out and take a seat.
Normally I would have thought Wallace would be regarded as the New Ross TD as he had a clear run of it. Now however he will lose to her in that district leaving the Gorey district with just one serious contender Michael D'arcy. FF have made a mistake in not running Malcolm Byrne who would at least challenge D'arcy for a seat.

My prediction in order of election are D'arcy, Howlin, Browne, Mythen and Murphy. On the face of it SF gain from independent but those of us who read the tea leaves see it as something else.
I've never heard of Murphy but one if the parties has to take a crack at New Ross.
 

automaticforthepeople

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 22, 2012
Messages
4,773
I've never heard of Murphy but one if the parties has to take a crack at New Ross.
Verona Murphy is the spokesperson for the Road Haulage Industry and will be focusing on Brexit, Rosslare Europort and transport. By all accounts she'll have a great welcome for herself on the doorsteps of the county.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
224,670
Verona Murphy is the spokesperson for the Road Haulage Industry and will be focusing on Brexit, Rosslare Europort and transport. By all accounts she'll have a great welcome for herself on the doorsteps of the county.
It's a good choice for all sorts of reasons. Between Murphy and McDonald, that definitely puts the squeeze on Wallace.
 

automaticforthepeople

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 22, 2012
Messages
4,773
It's a good choice for all sorts of reasons. Between Murphy and McDonald, that definitely puts the squeeze on Wallace.
McDonald couldn't squeeze Ger Carthy let alone Wallace. If doubt if many Wallace voters were changing to vote for someone who had Bertie at their nuptials.
 

MsDaisyC

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 3, 2017
Messages
3,667
McDonald couldn't squeeze Ger Carthy let alone Wallace. If doubt if many Wallace voters were changing to vote for someone who had Bertie at their nuptials.
Have you seen her posters for a "public meeting"? 66% Councillor Fivehead, 33% meeting details. She actually canvassed at a friend's daughter's funeral a few years back, way more than the usual "sorry for your loss" pressing the flesh at funerals these ghouls do. I've had a burning hatred of her since.
 
Top