Wexford: Call the next GE Results


automaticforthepeople

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Have you seen her posters for a "public meeting"? 66% Councillor Fivehead, 33% meeting details. She actually canvassed at a friend's daughter's funeral a few years back, way more than the usual "sorry for your loss" pressing the flesh at funerals these ghouls do. I've had a burning hatred of her since.
That must be quite some time back. Her name hasn't been on a ballot paper since 2007.
 

statsman

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On reflection, I can't see Wallace losing out.
 

Dame_Enda

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Wallace is well known in the county because of his role with Wexford Youths. Also his extended family are known for role in supermarkets.
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

midlander12

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Wallace was down to 11% last time, just ahead of the two FGers on first prefs. SF were on 10% and missed the last seat by 53 votes to FG.

FG's vote should be up nearer 30% this time so they should hold the 2 seats easily enough. No doubt Wallace still appeals to a certain constituency but it's hard to see his vote going any way but down. SF would seem to be the obvious beneficiaries though Malcolm Byrne (FF) was only 1400 behind SF's Mythen when he was eliminated last time.

Brown and Howlin safe.

FG 2, FF 1, SF 1. Could be SF's only gain of the election - I'm struggling to see many more.
 

the secretary

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Wallace was down to 11% last time, just ahead of the two FGers on first prefs. SF were on 10% and missed the last seat by 53 votes to FG.

FG's vote should be up nearer 30% this time so they should hold the 2 seats easily enough. No doubt Wallace still appeals to a certain constituency but it's hard to see his vote going any way but down. SF would seem to be the obvious beneficiaries though Malcolm Byrne (FF) was only 1400 behind SF's Mythen when he was eliminated last time.

Brown and Howlin safe.

FG 2, FF 1, SF 1. Could be SF's only gain of the election - I'm struggling to see many more.
Unfortunately a gain is more likely in Donegal for them than here imo
 

the secretary

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Yeah, I'm actually not sure about Donegal for them, particularly if Casey runs.
Don't count Casey in race yet.
I will believe it when i see it.
They will move heaven and earth to get Mac Lochlainn elected even though he ain't too popular
 

automaticforthepeople

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On reflection, I can't see Wallace losing out.
Last week Wallace took quarter page ads in the 4 local editions of the People promoting his meeting in Whites Hotel at 8pm last Friday night. There was no sign of Wallace by 8pm and there was hardly 10 people in the room. His aide was furiously on the phone and eventually he showed up.
I presume it was the Toy Show that many of his voters preferred to watch rather than a toy politician spinning his pro Putin rubbish on Yemen, whistle blowing and NAMA.
 

midlander12

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Why isn’t Mac Lochlainn popular ??
Too left-liberal for a very conservative area (Inishowen voted 2/1 No in the abortion referendum) and I'm guessing his ethnic background is an issue for some.
 

Fr Dougal

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Last week Wallace took quarter page ads in the 4 local editions of the People promoting his meeting in Whites Hotel at 8pm last Friday night. There was no sign of Wallace by 8pm and there was hardly 10 people in the room. His aide was furiously on the phone and eventually he showed up.
I presume it was the Toy Show that many of his voters preferred to watch rather than a toy politician spinning his pro Putin rubbish on Yemen, whistle blowing and NAMA.
Parts of Wexford have serious problems with lawlessness.
New Ross, Enniscorthy,Gorey and Bunclody come to mind.
Much of it is Traveller and Immigrant related.
North Wexford is terrorised with the roaming gangs.
Wallace loves everyone especially immigrants so his base are pissed.
But his stance on abortion should get him elected.
But he will have to pay his campaigners.
 

loner

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Think Wallace and Kehoe could be in danger---hard to know who might replace them
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

automaticforthepeople

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
This is not really relevant. Using national polls to project onto a constituency where perhaps just 30 people have been questioned carries dangers in forecasting outcomes when we could be as close as 2 months from polling or as far as 18 months off polling day.
 

statsman

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This is not really relevant. Using national polls to project onto a constituency where perhaps just 30 people have been questioned carries dangers in forecasting outcomes when we could be as close as 2 months from polling or as far as 18 months off polling day.
I am not using polls. It's an amalgam of local knowledge on the 45 constituency threads.
 
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