What are the likely consequences of a no deal ?

darkhorse

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I have read various disaster scenarios about the possible consequences of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal ranging from:
- a collapse of manufacturing and services as UK based businesses migrate back to the EU
- food shortages including empty shelves in supermarkets
- a banking crisis as property prices collapse
- a run on banks as people withdraw their savings in fear of bank failures
- the EU calling in UK debts as they leave without honouring their soveirgn commitments
Which, if any, of these seem likely or what are the likely consequences of a no deal Brexit?
 


Cai

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I have read various disaster scenarios about the possible consequences of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal ranging from:
- a collapse of manufacturing and services as UK based businesses migrate back to the EU
- food shortages including empty shelves in supermarkets
- a banking crisis as property prices collapse
- a run on banks as people withdraw their savings in fear of bank failures
- the EU calling in UK debts as they leave without honouring their soveirgn commitments
Which, if any, of these seem likely or what are the likely consequences of a no deal Brexit?
Well the immediate consequence would be Kent becoming a huge lorry park.
 

Betson

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None of the above , project fear in action again.

Great trade deals for the UK , that is the most likely consequence.

The EU will cave in before it ever gets to that point , they are talking big in public but privately they are conceding to a lot of the UK demands.
 

LookWhoItIs

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I have read various disaster scenarios about the possible consequences of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal ranging from:
- a collapse of manufacturing and services as UK based businesses migrate back to the EU
- food shortages including empty shelves in supermarkets
- a banking crisis as property prices collapse
- a run on banks as people withdraw their savings in fear of bank failures
- the EU calling in UK debts as they leave without honouring their soveirgn commitments
Which, if any, of these seem likely or what are the likely consequences of a no deal Brexit?


 

Accidental sock

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[video=youtube;RzybAS7zltE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzybAS7zltE[/video]
 

L'Chaim

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I really believe that Brexit won't happen. The UK will get something it wants like a reduction in what it pays into the EU. Britain has felt, for years that it was paying far too much. The Greek bailout was the final straw for them. It felt it was paying in much more than it was getting in return. So I think a deal will be reached where the UK stays a full member but pays less, with other countries making up the shortfall.
 

Degeneration X

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I have read various disaster scenarios about the possible consequences of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal ranging from:
- a collapse of manufacturing and services as UK based businesses migrate back to the EU
- food shortages including empty shelves in supermarkets
- a banking crisis as property prices collapse
- a run on banks as people withdraw their savings in fear of bank failures
- the EU calling in UK debts as they leave without honouring their soveirgn commitments
Which, if any, of these seem likely or what are the likely consequences of a no deal Brexit?
There will be a deal, the average Brit will be totally incapable of understanding it but there will be a deal both sides have too much to lose from such a dangerous vacuum developing. The only question is how many billions will Brexit cost the UK?
 

mac tíre

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None of the above , project fear in action again.

Great trade deals for the UK , that is the most likely consequence.

The EU will cave in before it ever gets to that point , they are talking big in public but privately they are conceding to a lot of the UK demands.
David Davis couldn't even get his "fight of the summer". The British crumpled at that point. They conceded to the EU's agenda. Britain is leaving and it is unlikely any of their demands will be met unless they get serious about this.
 

darkhorse

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I really believe that Brexit won't happen. The UK will get something it wants like a reduction in what it pays into the EU. Britain has felt, for years that it was paying far too much. The Greek bailout was the final straw for them. It felt it was paying in much more than it was getting in return. So I think a deal will be reached where the UK stays a full member but pays less, with other countries making up the shortfall.
Membership of the EU has brought the UK from the sick man of Europe to one of its most prosperous members - which brought in so many foreign workers of all skill levels. The UK has never experienced such prosperity in its entire existence.
So what the UK pays in, its gets back many times over.
 

tsarbomb

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It will be difficult in the long run, but over time no deal will definitely be to Britain's advantage not to have any deal. The EU has been stagnating by almost every metric for some time now (for instance in 1996 the EU accounted for a quarter of global economic output, but on the eve of the Brexit vote it was down to about 15% despite having expanded massively over that time) and Britain would do well not to be plowing so much money into it and start trading with the rest of the world.
 

Spanner Island

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It will not affect the rest of the EU as much as the Brits like to think.

Ireland will be badly affected however, north and south.

As for Blighty... who cares... they voted for whatever comes.
 

Spanner Island

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None of the above , project fear in action again.

Great trade deals for the UK , that is the most likely consequence.

The EU will cave in before it ever gets to that point , they are talking big in public but privately they are conceding to a lot of the UK demands.
Links?

Or are you a participant in the 'negotiations' yourself?
 

L'Chaim

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Membership of the EU has brought the UK from the sick man of Europe to one of its most prosperous members - which brought in so many foreign workers of all skill levels. The UK has never experienced such prosperity in its entire existence.
So what the UK pays in, its gets back many times over.
I don't think the people of GB would see it like that. I think the bringing "in of so many foreign workers" was a big issue for them (not an issue I'd support btw)
 

LookWhoItIs

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It will be difficult in the long run, but over time no deal will definitely be to Britain's advantage not to have any deal. The EU has been stagnating by almost every metric for some time now (for instance in 1996 the EU accounted for a quarter of global economic output, but on the eve of the Brexit vote it was down to about 15% despite having expanded massively over that time) and Britain would do well not to be plowing so much money into it and start trading with the rest of the world.
sustained annual growth rate of 2-4% for the years you mention, the fact that it may have reduced as a percentage of world wide output would likely been down to exceptional growth in the BRICK states and elsewhere - but of course that would not fit the narrative :roll:
 

Vega1447

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It will be difficult in the long run, but over time no deal will definitely be to Britain's advantage not to have any deal. The EU has been stagnating by almost every metric for some time now (for instance in 1996 the EU accounted for a quarter of global economic output, but on the eve of the Brexit vote it was down to about 15% despite having expanded massively over that time) and Britain would do well not to be plowing so much money into it and start trading with the rest of the world.
How's the Arctic herring business up there in Novaya Zemlya? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novaya_Zemlya
 

GDPR

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The UK falls into the abyss.

1000s of acres of unfinished buildings in London.

When I first came to live in London in the early 1990s there was no Sunday trading, there was a recession, everything was a bit gloomy. Since then there has been unbelievable progress, massive redevelopment and development. London prospers.

That could be because I live in London :) - more likely it is because of the EU and migration. Migrants bring development and prosperity. Look at the USA, Canada, Australia.
 

tsarbomb

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sustained annual growth rate of 2-4% for the years you mention, the fact that it may have reduced as a percentage of world wide output would likely been down to exceptional growth in the BRICK states and elsewhere - but of course that would not fit the narrative :roll:
"Sustained annual growth rate of 2-4%"?!?! What are you snorting? There was nothing like that level of sustained growth in the EU during this period. There were actually really sharp recessions and sovereign debt crises in many places and unemployment in many EU countries is still one of the highest in the world.

What does the 'K' in BRICK stand for anyway?
 


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