What are the value bets in this election?

locke

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Bookmakers have odds up for all constituencies now, so I'm interested to hear what people see as the best value bets out there.

I'm not talking about who is certain to get in, but where the bookies have their odds wrong

From this part of the world:-

Tim Lombard (FG) 4/9 in Cork South-West. Even on a very, very bad day, FG poll in the low 20s, so they get a seat. His party colleague isn't at the races. She also faces a clustered pack in the west, where the east is a bit more open.

Mick Barry (Solidarity) is at 9/4 in Cork North Central. He will have difficulties retaining his seat, with both Labour and Fianna Fáil targetting it, but he's not at 9/4 danger. It could be worth a bet on both him and John Maher (Lab) who is also at 9/4 as the odds are very much in favour of one of them taking the seat.
 


Northsideman

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If you have a few Bob to peg around 2 which might be there or there abouts would be Steven Matthews Green Party Wicklow and Johnny Mythen SF Wexford both 11-8 . I'll be sticking to the nags.
 

Northsideman

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If you're messing around in 9/4 territory, may as well lump money of SF to get over 20 seats at evens
They would really need to get all those who say they'll vote for them to actually vote on the day to get 21 plus seats. It's possible but on past trends unlikely but hey in this gig anything can happen.
 

blinding

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Back Sinn Fein to do worse than the Polls ( the Polls now anyway )

The Polls are pushed by FFG interests to frighten the horses and voters and are nowhere near what Sinn Fein will get .

Also young people who say they will vote for Sinn Fein don’t even bother to vote at all. Now thats what you call soft support.
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Back Sinn Fein to do worse than the Polls ( the Polls now anyway )

The Polls are pushed by FFG interests to frighten the horses and voters and are nowhere near what Sinn Fein will get .

Also young people who say they will vote for Sinn Fein don’t even bother to vote at all. Now thats what you call soft support.
Not sure about that blinding, it might be different this time .Certainly S.F need to get their vote out, but I reckon conditions for that are better now in 2020 then at any time in the past.
 

neiphin

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Not sure about that blinding, it might be different this time .Certainly S.F need to get their vote out, but I reckon conditions for that are better now in 2020 then at any time in the past.
they managed to do that in the dublin by election
 

blinding

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Sinn Fein last three elections in the South have been disastrous .

Local Elections / Eu Elections / Presidential Elections. None of these not that long ago.

The establishment now want people to vote for Sinn fein or even the Greens as the Protest Vote . They are worried that a Party that is truly against the Tweedle Three and their pretty much identical policies might get a foothold .

There is certainly opening for a party that is against continuing Mass Immigration after having 20 years of it.

If the Irish people do not vote for change on this then its going to continue . A country that cannot house the people here already and provide a health service for them should not be continuing mass immigration.

Its time to have 10 years of No Mass Immigration and only the most highly skilled immigration that we cannot produce ourselves ( this would not be a high number ).
 

SuirView

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Sinn Fein last three elections in the South have been disastrous .

Local Elections / Eu Elections / Presidential Elections. None of these not that long ago.

The establishment now want people to vote for Sinn fein or even the Greens as the Protest Vote . They are worried that a Party that is truly against the Tweedle Three and their pretty much identical policies might get a foothold .

There is certainly opening for a party that is against continuing Mass Immigration after having 20 years of it.

If the Irish people do not vote for change on this then its going to continue . A country that cannot house the people here already and provide a health service for them should not be continuing mass immigration.

Its time to have 10 years of No Mass Immigration and only the most highly skilled immigration that we cannot produce ourselves ( this would not be a high number ).
Wrong thread.
 

Breanainn

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John Lyons in Dublin Bay North - currently 10/1, but reportedly a dark horse in the constituency.
 

RetiredProvo

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I'd say you would get decent enough odds on Rose Conway-Walsh taking last seat in Mayo after a long, long recount.
 

strider

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Don't know what you think of Ivan Yeats' predictions but he's done 23 so far and has FG losing a seat in 10 of them. At that rate will be at least 16 losses before he's finished but last time I looked, you could still get 5/6 on FG getting less than 42.5 seats....something wrong somewhere there
 

neiphin

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I'd say you would get decent enough odds on Rose Conway-Walsh taking last seat in Mayo after a long, long recount.
unfortunately i cannot see it, would love too,
Ringer the only good candidate in the whole field
Celery, as useless as he is , will easily take the second

a few hours and counts later, one of the blueshirts will go
Dillon who has ABSOLUTELY no record of community work or political experience, except for being the nephew of Kennys driver or Michelle (the phone calls to nigeria one, the fornicator one)
Dillon lives close enough to and is canvassing the same area as Lisa (the multiple votes one)(can i use my sons vote, i know how he would vote anyway)

if Michelle (the fornicator one) goes, its a north mayo vote, will it transfer to Dillon (ABSOLUTELY no record one) ?
after the kennys dirty tricks with the posters ?

where can Rose (the one with the come to bed smile on the posters) get votes from ?
she is the only Erris candidate (not enough votes there, even if she got every last one)
Ringer does well out west and north mayo, might be some transfers there, if ringer has a surplus
she will pick up votes else where but i fear not enough
 

wiseowl

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as of now there is very little value.....however in the odds against bracket, the 5/4 about the Waterford hospital candidate Shanahan taking the 4th seat as an independent is very fair....party canvassers in the Deise for FF and Fg both relate that Shanahan is charging and will be a magnet for transfers.
the other one at odds is Peter Ormond FF at 5/2 in Laois/Offaly...FF could return to their historic 3 in this constituency provided Cowen shares Offaly fairly with Ormond.
 

mangaire2

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had a look at Paddy Power for Clare.
now, it's pretty certain that it will be 2 FF - the only questions are -
whether it will be 2 FG, or 1FG & 1 Ind (McNamara - formally Labour),
& in the event of it being 2 FG - which two of the three FG candidates ?

Paddy Power offers odds of 6/4 on McNamara & a generous & tempting 7/2 on Conway (FG).
as i'm ever so slightly at this stage, going for 1 FG & 1 Ind, i'd put my couple of bob on McNamara @ 6/4.
 


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