What are the value bets in this election?

Breanainn

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There is a problem with that combination in that the FG collapse might be understated and FF could break the 60 seats barrier as a result. Labour could be reduced to 3 seats. Not quite so sure about the SDs making any gains.
Indeed they might not make any at all, but such are the probable margins that 2-4 seats (Galway West, DBN, Dub Central all being possibilities, rather than probabilities) could tip the coalition scales.
 


jmcc

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Indeed they might not make any at all, but such are the probable margins that 2-4 seats (Galway West, DBN, Dub Central all being possibilities, rather than probabilities) could tip the coalition scales.
STV is a wonderful system in that respect. :) Still think that the anti-Open Borders vote may be a factor especially with the constituencies where FG tried to impose DP centres.
 

Dame_Enda

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Someone mentioned Sean O'Shea to me today in Wexford as who they think could get the last seat. He is supported by Wallace. O'Shea is 12/1 right now. Worth a shot.
 

TaxingTimes

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Not a whole lot of value out there. I've been trying to pick out odds against candidates from various constituencies. PP have the bar set for SF at 23 seats. If this is to be obtained then there are a quite a few SF candidates still at odds against.

The second candidate in Cavan / Monaghan is 11/10
Mairead Farrell in Galway is 3/1
Darren O'Rourke in Meath East is 5/4

Very little value in the main out there. BTW Mick Barry is now 5/2.
 

MOSS1

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The market in which someone could make a great killing if only they could pick a winner would be the 'next government' market. The favourites are hovering out at the 5/1 to 6/1 mark. There's a mesmerising array of options and this time PP are a lot more specific regarding makeup - in 2016 on the Saturday morning before the election I backed a FG minority government at 13/2 and they paid out even though technically it was a FG/Indo combination. It's a tough one to call and unlike other markets where you'll collect in just over a week you'll likely have to wait a good few to collect your winnings if you do get it right.

In terms of constituencies if you're into short odds 'certainties' then there are a few who look reasonably priced. Eamon O Cuiv referenced above at 1/8 (He's been as long as 1/5 at times but it's been snapped up). Another would be the Cork East duo David Stanton and Ned O'Keeffe who i would have expected to be shorter than 1/5.

It's interesting to see how the odds have been fluctuating greatly in some constituencies over others, which must indicate significant activity. Galway West has had a bit of action which has picked up considerably since that unusual poll on Tuesday while Cork SW seems to have been very active from the off. On the other hand not much movement in the south Dublin seats.
 

dinnyMEP

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The market in which someone could make a great killing if only they could pick a winner would be the 'next government' market. The favourites are hovering out at the 5/1 to 6/1 mark. There's a mesmerising array of options and this time PP are a lot more specific regarding makeup - in 2016 on the Saturday morning before the election I backed a FG minority government at 13/2 and they paid out even though technically it was a FG/Indo combination. It's a tough one to call and unlike other markets where you'll collect in just over a week you'll likely have to wait a good few to collect your winnings if you do get it right.

In terms of constituencies if you're into short odds 'certainties' then there are a few who look reasonably priced. Eamon O Cuiv referenced above at 1/8 (He's been as long as 1/5 at times but it's been snapped up). Another would be the Cork East duo David Stanton and Ned O'Keeffe who i would have expected to be shorter than 1/5.

It's interesting to see how the odds have been fluctuating greatly in some constituencies over others, which must indicate significant activity. Galway West has had a bit of action which has picked up considerably since that unusual poll on Tuesday while Cork SW seems to have been very active from the off. On the other hand not much movement in the south Dublin seats.

I backed the FG minority option last time and made a nice profit on it. The betting markets are fluctuating wildly watch the TG4 Kerry poll distort the market for a day especially if it shows Pa Daly in trouble his odds will go way out. I think he is worth a punt to keep the SF seat he is currently 4/7 but may drift to evens or worse if its a bad poll.

Looking at Dun Laoghaire you can get Mary Hanafin at 15/8 v Cormac Devlin at 5/6. I've canvassed in the past for Cormac and he is coming on strong but there is value in the Hanafin odds. I think FF will get one seat.

RBB at 1/10 looks like one to avoid. If Greens clean up his vote will be under pressure, Greens only got 5% the last GE in DL so a gain of 10% for GP means someone has to lose votes. Labour got 9% with a well liked councillor and no Soc Dem candidate last time so some might go to the Greens. SF got 5% in 2016 but if they gain their opinion poll rating or even get 10% it pushes Shane O'Brien higher and takes from RBB.
 

locke

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On the wilder side of odds, Ciarán McCarthy of the Soc Dems is 33/1 in Cork NW.

Now, he is very unlikely to win a seat, but the odds shouldn't be that bad.

He has a lot in his favour.

There's no Labour or Sinn Féin candidate.

The Green candidate is not from the constituency.

He's the only serious candidate from Ballincollig, which has 20% of the electorate.

Something in the range of 8/1 or so reflects his actual chances.
 

crossman

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On the wilder side of odds, Ciarán McCarthy of the Soc Dems is 33/1 in Cork NW.

Now, he is very unlikely to win a seat, but the odds shouldn't be that bad.

He has a lot in his favour.

There's no Labour or Sinn Féin candidate.

The Green candidate is not from the constituency.

He's the only serious candidate from Ballincollig, which has 20% of the electorate.

Something in the range of 8/1 or so reflects his actual chances.
You may be right but its not a value bet if it doesn't come in and I can't see it.
 

Manstein

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A value bet was Claire Kerrane (SF) in Roscommon-Galway at 14/1. However she has shortened to 4/1 in the past few days. FF are under serious pressure in this seat and while still favourites to hold there is definitely wind behind Kerrane providing the national vote holds up (big if). If it does show as holding in tomorrow nights polls take the 4/1. Eugene Murphy is toast (4/9).
 

dinnyMEP

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A value bet was Claire Kerrane (SF) in Roscommon-Galway at 14/1. However she has shortened to 4/1 in the past few days. FF are under serious pressure in this seat and while still favourites to hold there is definitely wind behind Kerrane providing the national vote holds up (big if). If it does show as holding in tomorrow nights polls take the 4/1. Eugene Murphy is toast (4/9).
She is helped by no HAC candidate for the first time since 1989 so i can see the rationale and she is from a good location to get votes over in west Roscommon and no Maura Hopkins to split the local vote. I am not down home so don't know how the canvassing is going but Euge is a survivor and will get transfers across the county. He has a problem in Orla Leyden slap bang in Roscommon town and the loss of Boyle/North Roscommon. Still hard not to see a FF candidate limp over the line to the last seat with Dolan's FG transfers but she could of a high level of non transferable galway votes with Naughton and Fitzmaurice elected.
 

MOSS1

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I think though
She is helped by no HAC candidate for the first time since 1989 so i can see the rationale and she is from a good location to get votes over in west Roscommon and no Maura Hopkins to split the local vote. I am not down home so don't know how the canvassing is going but Euge is a survivor and will get transfers across the county. He has a problem in Orla Leyden slap bang in Roscommon town and the loss of Boyle/North Roscommon. Still hard not to see a FF candidate limp over the line to the last seat with Dolan's FG transfers but she could of a high level of non transferable galway votes with Naughton and Fitzmaurice elected.
I think though that having two very strong independents in the race counts against her.
 

MOSS1

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I backed the FG minority option last time and made a nice profit on it. The betting markets are fluctuating wildly watch the TG4 Kerry poll distort the market for a day especially if it shows Pa Daly in trouble his odds will go way out. I think he is worth a punt to keep the SF seat he is currently 4/7 but may drift to evens or worse if its a bad poll.

Looking at Dun Laoghaire you can get Mary Hanafin at 15/8 v Cormac Devlin at 5/6. I've canvassed in the past for Cormac and he is coming on strong but there is value in the Hanafin odds. I think FF will get one seat.

RBB at 1/10 looks like one to avoid. If Greens clean up his vote will be under pressure, Greens only got 5% the last GE in DL so a gain of 10% for GP means someone has to lose votes. Labour got 9% with a well liked councillor and no Soc Dem candidate last time so some might go to the Greens. SF got 5% in 2016 but if they gain their opinion poll rating or even get 10% it pushes Shane O'Brien higher and takes from RBB.
I would agree with you on DL, certainly RBB would struggle with a Green surge, even if there were enough votes between them to elect two the danger is it skews too heavily towards Greens. I agree FF should take a seat but not sure which candidate.

Good point re Kerry. You'll get a wild 12-24 hours after that poll is published. The MOE in those seat polls is huge.
 

Itsalaugh

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The market in which someone could make a great killing if only they could pick a winner would be the 'next government' market. The favourites are hovering out at the 5/1 to 6/1 mark. There's a mesmerising array of options and this time PP are a lot more specific regarding makeup - in 2016 on the Saturday morning before the election I backed a FG minority government at 13/2 and they paid out even though technically it was a FG/Indo combination. It's a tough one to call and unlike other markets where you'll collect in just over a week you'll likely have to wait a good few to collect your winnings if you do get it right.

In terms of constituencies if you're into short odds 'certainties' then there are a few who look reasonably priced. Eamon O Cuiv referenced above at 1/8 (He's been as long as 1/5 at times but it's been snapped up). Another would be the Cork East duo David Stanton and Ned O'Keeffe who i would have expected to be shorter than 1/5.

It's interesting to see how the odds have been fluctuating greatly in some constituencies over others, which must indicate significant activity. Galway West has had a bit of action which has picked up considerably since that unusual poll on Tuesday while Cork SW seems to have been very active from the off. On the other hand not much movement in the south Dublin seats.
Very open race in Cork SW. Michael Collins looking good and must be one FGer but SF could upset FF here. The Bandon/Kinsale end is very crowded with candidates which may push O'Sullivan FF (Clonakilty) ahead of Ms Murphy O'Mahony. If Bandon based SF, Paul Hayes, remains ahead of MoM then some of her second preferences will stay local. SF got 8.5% last time, if 18% nationally then 13% is possible now and transfers from Aontú, Pbp and Greens to come.
 

locke

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What are the thoughts on 5/6 on a turnout of 65.54% or less.

That's higher than it was last time, and I'm getting no sense of enthusiasm for this election. Plus the register is a greater mess than ever.
 

dinnyMEP

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What are the thoughts on 5/6 on a turnout of 65.54% or less.

That's higher than it was last time, and I'm getting no sense of enthusiasm for this election. Plus the register is a greater mess than ever.

I am getting a real sense of lack of engagement on the doors. People who seem happy enough with the government don't seem overly motivated to vote and I am not getting the sense of a youthquake election either. I think turnout will be about 62% with a few working class areas higher than normal and a few middle class areas lower. I suppose it depends on how much is put into the SF scare by FF and FG to push people out to vote. The weather for next weekend per Met Eireann is described as "The trend for next weekend is for unsettled weather with spells of wet and windy weather and possibly very windy conditions on Sunday."

I would take that bet.
 

dinnyMEP

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Now my favourite bet and one where a small number of determined bettors could make a killing should they live in one of the 11 constituencies and still transfer along the line afterwards !

Sean O'Leary running in 11 constituencies is 8/11 to get over 600 votes. He is from Kerry and needs about 55 votes a constituency and has submitted a picture so his face will be on every ballot paper.

Looking at last election the bottom placed candidate in most constituencies got an average of about 130 votes. The 5 lowest vote totals were

22 Galway West
37 Dublin Bay North
39 Clare
42 Mayo
51 Limerick County

Its a very achievable target !

Looked again at this and he is still 8/11 to get over 600 and in Cork North West he is the only independent listed on the ballot paper ! I think it has to be worth 150/200 votes potentially
 


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