What are the value bets in this election?

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,372
Looked again at this and he is still 8/11 to get over 600 and in Cork North West he is the only independent listed on the ballot paper ! I think it has to be worth 150/200 votes potentially
He also lives in Cork North Central and is the only candidate from the rural area in the North-West of the constituency, so will presumably get some votes from his neighbours.
 


Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
56,579
Mythen now slight favourite for the 5th Wexford seat on Paddy Power, which would be the first SF TD here since 1923. Paul Kehoe in 7th place behind Verona Murphy.

PP odds also have Sean Sherlock possibly losing, but AOR likely to win in DBN.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,372
The odd thing about Sherlock is that he hasn't drifted very far. What has happened i that James O'Connor of FF has come in heavily and all the previous top 4 have drifted slightly, so O'Connor has overtaken the last person in the top 4.

But I have a few problems with what is shown
1) On current national polling, there aren't 2 seats for FF in Cork East. They need to poll 28%+ nationally for that to be practical
2) The current top 4 has Stanton (Midleton), Buckley (Midleton), O'Keeffe (Mitchelstown) and O'Connor (Youghal) taking a seat. Since it was founded, the constituency has never returned only 1 in the North. And only once (in November 82) has Mallow not had a TD.
3) Cobh has always had a strong Labour (and Sinn Féin) vote and in the absence of a candidate based in the town will provide a bit of a boost for Sherlock and Buckley.

I'd be interested to know why all the money has gone on to O'Connor.

I'm not so au fait with Wexford, but do have family there and some knowledge of the constituency. It seems to me that the current five favourites (Howlin, Browne, Byrne, D'Arcy and Mythen) are a good call. The only concern is a northward skew, but as I mentioned on a previous thread, because of the candidate line up, this is an election where one of the assumptions about Wexford will have to be proved false, unles Lisa McDonald takes out a party colleague or Aontú win a surprise seat, neither of which looks likely at the moment.
 

Manstein

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 19, 2011
Messages
1,059
For Value try Sorca Clark in Longford-Westmeath at 10/1. Paul Hogan was only 700 votes short of a seat in 2016. If there is a surge to Sinn Fein it would be strange if her vote didnt increase in line with it.

Dont say you werent warned. Now 2/1
 

SamsonS

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 22, 2009
Messages
4,861
Dont say you werent warned. Now 2/1
Cant see it tbh.
I see Troy and Boxer safe as houses. Then 1 seat in Longford, and the way polls are going will be Flaherty (FF). Burke likely to take 4th seat, helped by Carrigy (FG).
In the 2019 locals Clarke got 511 fpv, coming in 9th on fpv in the Mullingar areas, 6% FPV.
SF lost its 3 council seats in that election, getting just 5.8% FPV overall (FF got 36% and FG 23%).
 

dinnyMEP

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 13, 2004
Messages
592
Twitter
apathy
I took the 2/1 on Cathal Berry in Kildare South - it’s too tempting with a huge army vote and ex army vote in the area although Mark Wall will be tough to beat. Berry should be a transfer magnet in later counts especially if Suzanne Doyle is eliminated after FOL is elected first count.
 

redmonite

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 3, 2008
Messages
1,510
Mythen now slight favourite for the 5th Wexford seat on Paddy Power, which would be the first SF TD here since 1923. Paul Kehoe in 7th place behind Verona Murphy.

PP odds also have Sean Sherlock possibly losing, but AOR likely to win in DBN.
I wouldn't put too much store on the constituency odds, a couple of hundred euros could easily distort the market.
 

Manstein

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 19, 2011
Messages
1,059
Cant see it tbh.
I see Troy and Boxer safe as houses. Then 1 seat in Longford, and the way polls are going will be Flaherty (FF). Burke likely to take 4th seat, helped by Carrigy (FG).
In the 2019 locals Clarke got 511 fpv, coming in 9th on fpv in the Mullingar areas, 6% FPV.
SF lost its 3 council seats in that election, getting just 5.8% FPV overall (FF got 36% and FG 23%).
Fair enough but I know her team are now quite bullish now than 3 weeks ago. The locals last year are irrelevant to this year. Huge change since then. But your analysis is probably the way it will turn out.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,372
Anyone want to play a game on this?

Place €100 fictional Euros in bets and put them up on this thread with the odds before polling day and see who makes what profit or loss. Let's say whole Euro amounts only for the bets to keep things easier.
 

dinnyMEP

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 13, 2004
Messages
592
Twitter
apathy
I am in sounds good.


Deadline for bets 10pm Friday night ?
 

lastofthebohemians

Well-known member
Joined
May 31, 2012
Messages
1,446
Twitter
Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
I am in sounds good.


Deadline for bets 10pm Friday night ?
Great idea. So its a 100 euro stake and minimum bet should be 5 euro gives you 20 possible bets?
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,372
I am in sounds good.


Deadline for bets 10pm Friday night ?
Good with me

Great idea. So its a 100 euro stake and minimum bet should be 5 euro gives you 20 possible bets?
I was going to just say €1, to allow for someone who wants to place a small bet on a long shot, so will we say maximum 20 bets, but €1 minimum?
 

lastofthebohemians

Well-known member
Joined
May 31, 2012
Messages
1,446
Twitter
Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Good with me


I was going to just say €1, to allow for someone who wants to place a small bet on a long shot, so will we say maximum 20 bets, but €1 minimum?
Perfect. Going now on to Paddy power to see what is on offer.
 

lastofthebohemians

Well-known member
Joined
May 31, 2012
Messages
1,446
Twitter
Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
1O Bets at 10 euros : Paddypower odds at 16:00 hours Thurs 6th Feb.

Sean Sherlock (Cork east ) 2/5 Lab
Nessa Hourigan (Dublin Central) 1/2 G.P
Dean Mulligan (Dublin Fingal) 9/4 IND
Paul Murphy (Dublin South West) 6/5 RISE
Niall O Tuathail (Galway West) 10/11 S.D.
Danny Healy-Rae (Kerry ) 4/9 IND
Frankie Daly (Limerick city) 6/4 IND
Mark Dearey (Louth) 1/1 G.P
Seamus Healy (Tipperary) 2/1 IND
Johnny Mythen (Wexford) 1/2 S.F
 

dinnyMEP

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 13, 2004
Messages
592
Twitter
apathy
20 Bet maximum means we can keep control of it.

ConstituencyCandidatePartyOddsStake
Cavan MonaghanSarah O'ReillyAontú12/1€2
DonegalThomas PringleIndependent 13/8€8
Dublin FingalAlan FarrellFine Gael11/10€10
Dublin FingalLorraine Clifford LeeFianna Fáil11/8€20
Dun LaoghaireMary HanafinFianna Fáil11/4€10
Kildare NorthBernard DurkanFine Gael11/10€5
Kildare SouthCathal BerryIndependent2/1€10
Limerick CityBrian LeddinGreen Party11/4€5
MayoAlan DillonFine Gael6/4€10
TipperaryImelda GoldsboroFianna Fáil2/1€10
WexfordGer CarthyIndependent10/3€10
 

dinnyMEP

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 13, 2004
Messages
592
Twitter
apathy
On a separate note value bets include

FF/Lab/Green/Ind Government 16/1

FF/Lab/Green/SD Government 16/1

FF/Green/Lab 16/1



Thats working on an assumption of

FF 58/59
GP 9
Lab 6
SD 4

And there are enough FF indos to buy off officially Rural Alliance TDs or through side deals
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,372
All taken from Paddy Power in the last hour

€10 Voter turnout 65.54% or less 8/15
€5 FG v SF Highest number of seats FG - 4/11
€10 SF first preference vote 21.54% or less - 10/11
€3 FF first preference vote 26.55% or less 5/6
€10 Labour Party seats over 5.5 - 5/6
€5 Sean O'Leary first preference votes 600 or more 1/2
€2 Highest first preference vote John Brady 14/1
€5 Clare Michael McNamara (Ind) 4/9
€5 Cork North Central John Maher (Lab) 2/1
€5 Cork North Central Mick Barry (Soc) 2/1
€1 Cork NW Ciarán McCarthy (SD) 20/1
€10 Cork SW Tim Lombard (FG) 4/11
€2 Cork SW Alan Coleman (Ind) 10/1
€2 Cork SC Lorna Bogue (Grn) 9/4
€5 Kildare N Bernard Durcan (FG) 11/10
€5 Meath W Damien English (FG) 4/6
€5 Roscommon-Galway Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind) 1/6
€5 Tipperary Alan Kelly (Lab) 1/3
€5 Wexford Michael D'Arcy (FG) 1/2
 

wiseowl

Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2006
Messages
74
Instead of fantasy stuff I will list my portfolio which is now closed on this election.

4,880 on FF to win most seats at 5/6 average odds .....mostly placed between October and December.

Since announcement of election and with great trouble getting on and in most cases maximum offered was the bet.


Joe Flaherty 600 at 4/6 Longford Westmeath
Kathleen Function 250 at 1/1 Carlow Kilkenny
Louise O Reilly 1500 at 3/10 Fingal
Matt Shanahan 220 at 5/4 Waterford
Peter Ormond 80 at 5/2 Laois Offaly
Ollie Crowe 50 at 6/5 Galway West
Noel Grealish 300 at 5/6 Galway West.
 

lastofthebohemians

Well-known member
Joined
May 31, 2012
Messages
1,446
Twitter
Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
On a separate note value bets include

FF/Lab/Green/Ind Government 16/1

FF/Lab/Green/SD Government 16/1

FF/Green/Lab 16/1



Thats working on an assumption of

FF 58/59
GP 9
Lab 6
SD 4

And there are enough FF indos to buy off officially Rural Alliance TDs or through side deals
Do not think F.F will hit those heights. My max for F.F is 53
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top