What are the value bets in this election?

dinnyMEP

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Do not think F.F will hit those heights. My max for F.F is 53

I am giving FF the bounce of the ball in the last seats. If FG are last eliminated FF should pick up decent transfers and if a SF candidate gets eliminated, I cant see their voters picking FG over FF.

I think a lot of last seats will between FF and FG and FF will get the seat bonus this time based on the 7/8/9/10 preferences ahead of FG. Its just a biased hunch. Plus a few voters will use a transfer to FF as a stop SF vote.
 


lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
I am giving FF the bounce of the ball in the last seats. If FG are last eliminated FF should pick up decent transfers and if a SF candidate gets eliminated, I cant see their voters picking FG over FF.

I think a lot of last seats will between FF and FG and FF will get the seat bonus this time based on the 7/8/9/10 preferences ahead of FG. Its just a biased hunch. Plus a few voters will use a transfer to FF as a stop SF vote.
Yes, they will get a few extra that way, but I still believe there will be a surprising number of Independents who will pick up last seats against F.F/F.G if there is a genuine swing against the Establishment parties.
 

SamsonS

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Instead of fantasy stuff I will list my portfolio which is now closed on this election.

4,880 on FF to win most seats at 5/6 average odds .....mostly placed between October and December.

Since announcement of election and with great trouble getting on and in most cases maximum offered was the bet.


Joe Flaherty 600 at 4/6 Longford Westmeath
Kathleen Function 250 at 1/1 Carlow Kilkenny
Louise O Reilly 1500 at 3/10 Fingal
Matt Shanahan 220 at 5/4 Waterford
Peter Ormond 80 at 5/2 Laois Offaly
Ollie Crowe 50 at 6/5 Galway West
Noel Grealish 300 at 5/6 Galway West.
Safe enough on your most seats.
You got a good price om JF.

I did my 10 all between 1/5 and 1/9
Stanton fg 1/5 Michael Collins Ind 1/6 Denis Naughten ind 1/6 and 7 ff
Anne Rabbite 1/5, O Cuiv 1/9, OlOUGHLIN 1/7 Troy 1/9 Butler 1/6 Adagh Lahart 1/6
 

juggernaut

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Ok I have 15 bets on at Boyle sport. Only for the craic so a euro each:
Alan Kelly 4/11
Sean sherlock 4/9
Steven Matthews Wicklow 11/10
Michael Darcy 4/6
Jan o Sullivan 4/1
Eamon ocuiv 1/8
Zappone 5/6
Pascal o 4/11
Ff/sd/lab/green 14/1
Eoin madden 8/1
Thomas Pringle 4/6
Lorna bogue 11/1
Labour over 6.5 5/6
Eamon murphy and Shane ross to lose seats 5/1
Claire Keating limerick 7/1
 

locke

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All taken from Paddy Power in the last hour

€10 Voter turnout 65.54% or less 8/15 €15.33
€5 FG v SF Highest number of seats FG - 4/11 €0
€10 SF first preference vote 21.54% or less - 10/11 €0
€3 FF first preference vote 26.55% or less 5/6 €5.50
€10 Labour Party seats over 5.5 - 5/6 €18.33
€5 Sean O'Leary first preference votes 600 or more 1/2 €7.50
€2 Highest first preference vote John Brady 14/1 €0
€5 Clare Michael McNamara (Ind) 4/9 €7.22
€5 Cork North Central John Maher (Lab) 2/1 €0
€5 Cork North Central Mick Barry (Soc) 2/1 €15
€1 Cork NW CiarΓ‘n McCarthy (SD) 20/1 €0
€10 Cork SW Tim Lombard (FG) 4/11 €0
€2 Cork SW Alan Coleman (Ind) 10/1 €0
€2 Cork SC Lorna Bogue (Grn) 9/4 €0
€5 Kildare N Bernard Durcan (FG) 11/10 €10.50
€5 Meath W Damien English (FG) 4/6 €8.33
€5 Roscommon-Galway Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind) 1/6 €5.83
€5 Tipperary Alan Kelly (Lab) 1/3 €6.66
€5 Wexford Michael D'Arcy (FG) 1/2 €0
So my return on each bet is listed above

I would have made a grand profit of 20 cents
 

dinnyMEP

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20 Bet maximum means we can keep control of it.

ConstituencyCandidatePartyOddsStake
Cavan MonaghanSarah O'ReillyAontΓΊ12/1€2-€2
DonegalThomas PringleIndependent13/8€8€21
Dublin FingalAlan FarrellFine Gael11/10€10€21
Dublin FingalLorraine Clifford LeeFianna FΓ‘il11/8€20-€20
Dun LaoghaireMary HanafinFianna FΓ‘il11/4€10-€10
Kildare NorthBernard DurkanFine Gael11/10€5€10.50
Kildare SouthCathal BerryIndependent2/1€10€30
Limerick CityBrian LeddinGreen Party11/4€5€18.75
MayoAlan DillonFine Gael6/4€10€25
TipperaryImelda GoldsboroFianna FΓ‘il2/1€10-€10
WexfordGer CarthyIndependent10/3€10-€10

Total profit. €26.25
 

dinnyMEP

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My favourite bet of the election delivered Sean O'Leary over 600 votes, got a decent return on it. It was helped hugely by him being the only Independent in Cork North West where he took 515 votes ... he got 11 votes in Dublin Bay South and 12 in Dublin Central.
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
1O Bets at 10 euros : Paddypower odds at 16:00 hours Thurs 6th Feb.

Sean Sherlock (Cork east ) 2/5 Lab
Nessa Hourigan (Dublin Central) 1/2 G.P
Dean Mulligan (Dublin Fingal) 9/4 IND
Paul Murphy (Dublin South West) 6/5 RISE
Niall O Tuathail (Galway West) 10/11 S.D.
Danny Healy-Rae (Kerry ) 4/9 IND
Frankie Daly (Limerick city) 6/4 IND
Mark Dearey (Louth) 1/1 G.P
Seamus Healy (Tipperary) 2/1 IND
Johnny Mythen (Wexford) 1/2 S.F
So 5 out of ten: Best bet Paul Murphy 6/5.; Loss 50 euro. Gain : 1/2 twice (30 return) 6/5 (22) 4/9 (14.44) 2/5 (14) 78.14 Profit= 28.14
 

SamsonS

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Safe enough on your most seats.
You got a good price om JF.

I did my 10 all between 1/5 and 1/9
Stanton fg 1/5 Michael Collins Ind 1/6 Denis Naughten ind 1/6 and 7 ff
Anne Rabbite 1/5, O Cuiv 1/9, OlOUGHLIN 1/7 Troy 1/9 Butler 1/6 Adagh Lahart 1/6
Lost out on 2 , so down overall.
Those of you who had money on Sorcha Clarke when she was 10/1 last week take a bow.
 

bang bang

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Lost out on 2 , so down overall.
Those of you who had money on Sorcha Clarke when she was 10/1 last week take a bow.
My latest bet is FF FG GP coalition. Missed the bigger price earlier in the week but still got on at 7/2 now 7/4.
Hard to see anything else now bar another GE.
 

Fullforward

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I am giving FF the bounce of the ball in the last seats. If FG are last eliminated FF should pick up decent transfers and if a SF candidate gets eliminated, I cant see their voters picking FG over FF.

I think a lot of last seats will between FF and FG and FF will get the seat bonus this time based on the 7/8/9/10 preferences ahead of FG. Its just a biased hunch. Plus a few voters will use a transfer to FF as a stop SF vote.
You were right about that :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 

dinnyMEP

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You were right about that :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
A week is a long time πŸ˜‚ my post looks bloody awful now

Thankfully my other bets on Cathal Berry, Alan Farrell and Sean O’Leary all came in nicely to make a profit !
 

DMW19

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Dont normally bet but made an exception for the GE. Had three nice wins Reada Cronin 6/1 from near the end of the campaign - always thought KIldare North should be fertile for SF, and from the start od the campaign Pauline Tully at 7/1 and best Jennifer Whitmore at 12/1. Only a few euro on each but gad a good few misses too but a decent profit in the end. Would have been a different story if FF hadnt come back with the most seats. That was squeaky bum time for me ..... and I bet for the earlier poster who said he had nearly 5k on thatπŸ˜€
 

juggernaut

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Ok I have 15 bets on at Boyle sport. Only for the craic so a euro each:
Alan Kelly 4/11
Sean sherlock 4/9
Steven Matthews Wicklow 11/10
Michael Darcy 4/6
Jan o Sullivan 4/1
Eamon ocuiv 1/8
Zappone 5/6
Pascal o 4/11
Ff/sd/lab/green 14/1
Eoin madden 8/1
Thomas Pringle 4/6
Lorna bogue 11/1
Labour over 6.5 5/6
Eamon murphy and Shane ross to lose seats 5/1
Claire Keating limerick 7/1
Coalition still running but a slight loss overall
 


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