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I'm very sceptical about Ireland's medium term economic prospects. However, over the next 5 years I don't think you will see an adjustment in the market up to the level of even 20%. You may well see that in particular areas, as I said ones of less strategic locations... like blocks of apartments miles from public transport which are only half full because people have bought them solely for capital appreciation and a percentage of the other half are rented by short term immigrants.... that sort of property may well fall by up to 30%. I don't think in the next 5 years you'll se an adjustment of up to the level of 20% across the market.epml2000 said:I suppod crash is a decline of from 20% to 50% in house values across the city with negative equity and rising repossessions due to rising interest rates and the bloated construction sector at least wobbling with large scale job losses. Not necessarily causing a recession(but with a weakening dollar not beyond the realms of possibility either)
You are right in terms of the property crash was earlier in the UK. I am factually incorrect. But I do not think prices has started to rise by 1992 as I was in London then and there was still a serious problem. You are right about black wednesday.freedomlover said:The property price crash in the UK occurred in 1989/90. Yet, John Major won the election in 1992. What harmed the Tories in 1992 was Black Wednesday, which damaged their reputation for economic management. That had nothing to do with the property price crash which was well and truly over by 1992. Property prices rose sharply in the UK from 1992 on and are still rising.
I'd agree with that but if you look at the major property developers they're still buying huge plots of land and if you look at the estate agents, many are being bought by UK firms who I would argue wouldn't invest here if they didn't think there was money to be made... Gunne, HOK, Ganly Walters, Colliers..markmchugh said:confidence seems to have gone out of the market, once confidence goes in a market it takes a long time for it to return, remember the .com meltdown?
yeah but the major sellers have bailed out of the market. hook and macdonald , sherry fitzgeralds and co have all flogged their aylesbury road portfolios and even the banks have flogged their land to rent it back at whats now looking like the height of the market.johnfás said:I'd agree with that but if you look at the major property developers they're still buying huge plots of land and if you look at the estate agents, many are being bought by UK firms who I would argue wouldn't invest here if they didn't think there was money to be made... Gunne, HOK, Ganly Walters, Colliers..markmchugh said:confidence seems to have gone out of the market, once confidence goes in a market it takes a long time for it to return, remember the .com meltdown?
The greatest issue isn't a decline in house value as such as that only really affects people with multiple properties as investments (who are already pretty well off if they can do that) but the actual ability of people to make repayments.
Prices within M50 are less likely to crash than those outside the M50 but dependent on commuting into Dublin. If house prices begin to fall nearer the city people will flock to them as they would prefer to live there than in the commuter belt, keeping areas nearer the city higher than those in the commuter belt towns.Kf said:The Stamp Duty Changes will provide a huge 6 month boost to the housing market. After that it only down, expect a increase in prices of 10-15% in inner M50 dublin followed by 30% crash.