What election? If the budget passes, the government can continue to 2012

He3

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What election?

So far talk of an early election is only talk. Kicked off by the Greens' January demand, since fudged, now FF is telling journalists it might not happen before April. The Greens have discovered they need more time to get a climate change bill enacted. It may be vital but it still must take its place behind Lowry's Casino which is to be fast tracked at Cabinet apparently. The result: this government can still command the votes to see them through to 2012. That is the fact, the rest is comment.

That is what makes the uniform chorus in the mainstream media this weekend that the Budget must pass (even if it calls for the murder of firstborn children) so interesting.

Pass the budget and the government that chose to burn Ireland rather than the banks can stay put indefinitely.

The division between the IMF and the EU over burning Ireland (as a Euro-saving firebreak that will fail) rather than the bank bondsmen is gradually becoming more public. Next will be the admission that we cannot keep this forced promise and so must default. Ideal territory for FF to portray as a reason to stay in office - you can write the script for them: after all who would be better than them at managing the country in time of crisis? Certainly not a divided opposition.
 
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QuizMaster

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Totally and utterly wrong. The Greens will bail. Even if they don't, the other by-elections need to be held, which the opposition win, which puts the government in the minority anyway, which is why the Greens really will bail.
 

jacko

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the greens have to bail before the by elections in Dub South and Waterford.

They already look like fools for their announcement

Would they now bail on the budget

SBP speculating that there is resistance at Cabinet to €30k cut in ministerial salaries and changes in provisions of mercs - assuming that the greens are pushing rather than resisiting then this is the perfect platform on which to walk
 

Insole

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What a disgrace it is to have a government with such low popularity at a time of enormous crisis caused by their bad management.
Any politician with half a brain would be commiting suicide by voting for it.
 

cjudge

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That is what makes the uniform chorus in the mainstream media this weekend that the Budget must pass (even if it calls for the murder of firstborn children) so interesting.

Pass the budget and the government that chose to burn Ireland rather than the banks can stay put indefinitely.
Haven't gone to get the papers yet, but found something that surprised me online. I read the thread about Ganley looking for a new party, and went looking to see what his associates in his old party are up to. Found this

An Taoiseach hasn't done his homework again. He has read drafts of the Memorandum of Understanding and related loan facility documents. He and his cabinet have not read the final versions. The opposition have not read them. The MEPs have not read them. An Taoiseach will not allow a Dail debate on the deal. The IMF has made clear that it will not formally approve the MOU until after our budget is passed. Our government intends to sign us up to a deal which is not properly understood, and to pass the most draconian budget ever seen on the basis of draft and incomplete documents. Our Minister for Finance doesn’t even know what interest rates are being charged for God’s sake! He told the Irish Times ( 2 December) that the interest rate on the IMF loan is 5.7%. The IMF has said repeatedly that at current SDR interest rates, it is 3.12% during the first three years of the loan, and just under 4% thereafter.
and this

Think of the European Union as a bank. Think of Ireland as customer. We will be treated with respect as long as we have value. Once we stop paying our bills, the EU will look to foreclose. If we fail to meet our current obligations under the EFSF 'bailout' fund, our 'assets and revenues' can be targeted. Is the IMF loan is being given against collateral and penalties? Think of our public utilities like the ESB, the Water Utility we are being asked to create (all the better to privatise), semi state companies, Aer Lingus, state land and buildings, our mines, minerals and natural resources.
Very interesting article by Caroline Simons. Did anyone read the article by Michael Casey ex of the Central Bank and the IMF in Friday's IT? He talked about NZ banks all being foreign owned and said that commentators say Ireland is well on the way to being 100% foreign owned, at this point 80% corporate foreign ownership.

My Blog

Are shutters to be pulled down on Irish banks? - The Irish Times - Fri, Dec 03, 2010
 

He3

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cjudge

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That beats thinking.
Still, he must have read the 2 paras she wrote. I like it. Seems she has done her research. I'd like to see the small print of the loans before we are signed up to them. I didn't think about what 'assets and revenues' could be targeted if we don't pay up on the EU loan. Obviously the ESB is first in line in the firesale.

A 2007 Indecon report put the value of our oil and gas resources offshore and our resources onshore at €430 billion. In the six months to June 2010, 55 prospecting mineral licences were granted. Many of these are for precious metals like gold, silver and platinum. Since August 2009, licences have been granted in 22 areas to prospect for rare earth elements. These are hugely valuable, and are used in everything hi-tech, from mobile phones to space shuttles. We need to wake up and take control before others do it.
My Blog
 
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an modh coinniolach

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Did anyone read the article by Michael Casey ex of the Central Bank and the IMF in Friday's IT? He talked about NZ banks all being foreign owned and said that commentators say Ireland is well on the way to being 100% foreign owned, at this point 80% corporate foreign ownership.
Whatever else, he's wrong about NZ banks being all foreign owned. The private banks are all owned by overseas outfits, but their fastest growing bank, Kiwibank, is government owned and was set up specifically to counter what the then Labour government saw as the problem of overseas ownership. There are pros and cons to being owned completely, or even mostly, by overseas banks. On the one hand Kiwibank was a response by New Zealanders to the feeling that they were getting done over by the big Australian banks in terms of interest, charges, fees etc., while on the other it largely insulated NZ from the crash.
 
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cjudge

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Whatever else, he's wrong about NZ banks being all foreign owned. The private banks are all owned by overseas outfits, but their fastest growing bank, Kiwibank, is government owned and was set up specifically to counter what the then Labour government saw as the problem of overseas ownership. There are pros and cons to being owned completely, or even mostly, by overseas banks. On the one hand Kiwibank was a response by New Zealanders to the feeling that they were getting done over by the big Australian banks in terms of interest, charges, fees etc., while on the other it largely insulated NZ from the crash.
Thanks MC - food for thought.
 

Rocky

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Totally and utterly wrong. The Greens will bail. Even if they don't, the other by-elections need to be held, which the opposition win, which puts the government in the minority anyway, which is why the Greens really will bail.
The by-elections are the key and they will probably have to happen in the Spring, but that might not be until April.

Otherwise I would say the government would try to hang on, regardless of what the Greens said a few weeks ago. They're currently claiming that they won't be able to hold it until April as the budget won't be finished by March. By mid March there probably will be another crisis and they'll claim they aren't able to hold it due to that and so on. All the while Fianna Fail's ratings would fall, but they don't seem to care about that. However the By-elections mean they can't do that, but it could still leave us with an April election and the government could even try to drag it to May.
 

Cai

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Basically the more inevitable an election becomes the greater the temptation for Lowry & the crazy flat cap guy to find some reason or other to bring the government down & thus distance themselves from what they've done over the last few years.
 

Letmein

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Didnt Cowen state that he would hold the election after the budget - you dont think he would tell a lie surely ?????
 

Odyessus

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Didnt Cowen state that he would hold the election after the budget - you dont think he would tell a lie surely ?????

The election will definitely be after the budget. The question is how long after.
 

punchdrunk

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Haven't gone to get the papers yet, but found something that surprised me online. I read the thread about Ganley looking for a new party, and went looking to see what his associates in his old party are up to. Found this



and this



Very interesting article by Caroline Simons. Did anyone read the article by Michael Casey ex of the Central Bank and the IMF in Friday's IT? He talked about NZ banks all being foreign owned and said that commentators say Ireland is well on the way to being 100% foreign owned, at this point 80% corporate foreign ownership.

My Blog

Are shutters to be pulled down on Irish banks? - The Irish Times - Fri, Dec 03, 2010
This letter has plenty food for thought. But are the politicians listening? Default is inevitable. I argued here during the recent negotiations that the government should threaten default in the event of a very poor deal being offered. The EU could not afford a default as the Euro would crash if news even leaked out that a default was contemplated. Sadly no such strategy was contemplated. We will rue the day.
 
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cjudge

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This letter has plenty food for thought. But are the politicians listening? Default is inevitable. I argued here during the recent negotiations that the government should threaten default in the event of a very poor deal being offered. The EU could not afford a default as the Euro would crash if news even leaked out that a default was contemplated. Sadly no such strategy was contemplated. We will rue the day.
I agree PD. I haven't seen Caroline Simons's article in any of the papers this weekend. She challenges the cosy consensus about the budget. A hairshirt budget is necessary, certainly. But if this one goes through, the 'bailout' will be a done deal once the IMF has its meeting on the 10th. We are in the process of having a so-called “solution” imposed on us without having an opportunity to stand back, draw breath and consider the implications of where the current action might lead us. The EU/IMF have employed the strategy of the stronger negotiator of imposing artificially tight deadlines on action, to devastating effect.

Here's the link to the Caroline Simons article again My Blog
 

punchdrunk

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I agree PD. I haven't seen Caroline Simons's article in any of the papers this weekend. She challenges the cosy consensus about the budget. A hairshirt budget is necessary, certainly. But if this one goes through, the 'bailout' will be a done deal once the IMF has its meeting on the 10th. We are in the process of having a so-called “solution” imposed on us without having an opportunity to stand back, draw breath and consider the implications of where the current action might lead us. The EU/IMF have employed the strategy of the stronger negotiator of imposing artificially tight deadlines on action, to devastating effect.

Here's the link to the Caroline Simons article again My Blog
I had a quick look at the blog. It is excellent. Will return often
 

deirdrem

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The election will definitely be after the budget. The question is how long after.
Surely the intention is to have the election, oh, around six months after the budget - the 2011 budget, that is.
Keep putting it off another month, another month etc.
And hey presto, we're in 2012!
 

QuizMaster

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Surely the intention is to have the election, oh, around six months after the budget - the 2011 budget, that is.
Keep putting it off another month, another month etc.
And hey presto, we're in 2012!
Let's revisit this thread in 90 days, shall we?
See you at the start of March.
Meanwhile there is nothing more to be said here.
 


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