What happens when Trump can't deliver?

Prof Honeydew

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It has been widely commented that Donald Trump's victory was a result of capturing the rustbelt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan from the Democrats on the promise of restoring America's manufacturing base by ending free trade with Mexico and limiting access from low-cost producers in Asia. Even with tariff protection, it is debatable whether America can recreate a competitive mass-manufacturing base when it is already near full employment and it is even more debatable whether these jobs will reappear in Cleveland, Scranton or Flint rather than in some labor-unfriendly state like Mississippi or Arizona.

It's also quite possible that a return to protectionism could have the opposite effect in some manufacturing sectors where corporation realise they're going to take a hit somewhere on the supply chain and that it's logisitically simpler to move the higher levels out of America and just import the end-product or the final sub-assemblies.

Trump is also promising to reduce corporation tax from around 40% to a maximum of 15% as well as a massive reduction in federal income tax for the wealthy. These are two of the main sources of income for the federal government and proportionately of far greater importance than would be the case in a non-federal economy. America is already running a record budget deficit, which is likely to increase significantly should Trump deliver on his promises, and it remains to be seen whether the rest of the world (and, in particular, China) will continue to buy up the T-bills when they're faced with increasing American protectionism.

Because the Republican majority is unlikely to oppose him and certainly won't put together enough votes to override a Presidential veto, Trump is in a position over the next two years to do what he likes. But what happens if he can't deliver on his policies?

Leaders like Trump usually succumb to convention as bureaucratic and political establishments regain their influence once the shock of their election wears off and they are confronted with actual details of governing their countries. But not all do. Some like Hitler, Stalin and Mao Tse-Tung were not to be deflected and Trump's personal behaviour to date suggests he's ruled by the same arrogance without any regard for the consequences beyond his own ego.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope Trump's ignorance of what it takes to run something more complicated than a reality TV show reduces him to the irrelevance of a mediocrity while those around him get on with the business of running America. But the nearest analogies I can come up with are Russia and Turkey. Putin was facing increasing opposition to his rule when the Ukrainian Revolution gave him the chance to bang the drum by annexing Crimea and stirring the $hit wherever he could. By accident or by design, an attempted coup has given Erdogan the opportunity to hound every source of opposition to his rule.

We're in uncharted waters and this is the first time in history that a man of such emotional limitations as Trump is running the world's unchallenged military, political and economic power. Where it may lead to, God only knows.
 


PBP voter

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He will probably get re-elected like Obama in 2012,Clinton in 1996,Regan in 1984 etc.
 

GDPR

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Comparing him to dictators is a tad premature, no? As it is we're going to find out quite swiftly in the first two years as to how he intends to implement his promises. Repealing Obama initiatives, reduced world role as police man and getting on better with Russia, seem doable. The other promises seem more problematic yet if he's seen to be failing to deliver then he can be turfed out in 4 years.
 

Glenshane4

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It has been widely commented that Donald Trump's victory was a result of capturing the rustbelt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan from the Democrats on the promise of restoring America's manufacturing base by ending free trade with Mexico and limiting access from low-cost producers in Asia. Even with tariff protection, it is debatable whether America can recreate a competitive mass-manufacturing base when it is already near full employment and it is even more debatable whether these jobs will reappear in Cleveland, Scranton or Flint rather than in some labor-unfriendly state like Mississippi or Arizona.

It's also quite possible that a return to protectionism could have the opposite effect in some manufacturing sectors where corporation realise they're going to take a hit somewhere on the supply chain and that it's logisitically simpler to move the higher levels out of America and just import the end-product or the final sub-assemblies.

Trump is also promising to reduce corporation tax from around 40% to a maximum of 15% as well as a massive reduction in federal income tax for the wealthy. These are two of the main sources of income for the federal government and proportionately of far greater importance than would be the case in a non-federal economy. America is already running a record budget deficit, which is likely to increase significantly should Trump deliver on his promises, and it remains to be seen whether the rest of the world (and, in particular, China) will continue to buy up the T-bills when they're faced with increasing American protectionism.

Because the Republican majority is unlikely to oppose him and certainly won't put together enough votes to override a Presidential veto, Trump is in a position over the next two years to do what he likes. But what happens if he can't deliver on his policies?

Leaders like Trump usually succumb to convention as bureaucratic and political establishments regain their influence once the shock of their election wears off and they are confronted with actual details of governing their countries. But not all do. Some like Hitler, Stalin and Mao Tse-Tung were not to be deflected and Trump's personal behaviour to date suggests he's ruled by the same arrogance without any regard for the consequences beyond his own ego.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope Trump's ignorance of what it takes to run something more complicated than a reality TV show reduces him to the irrelevance of a mediocrity while those around him get on with the business of running America. But the nearest analogies I can come up with are Russia and Turkey. Putin was facing increasing opposition to his rule when the Ukrainian Revolution gave him the chance to bang the drum by annexing Crimea and stirring the $hit wherever he could. By accident or by design, an attempted coup has given Erdogan the opportunity to hound every source of opposition to his rule.

We're in uncharted waters and this is the first time in history that a man of such emotional limitations as Trump is running the world's unchallenged military, political and economic power. Where it may lead to, God only knows.
Leave the politics of the USA to the people of the USA. The Americans had a war of independence. The USA is a democracy.
 

Levellers

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He will do what such leaders do - he will create an external enemy to divert attention.
 

President Bartlet

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I'm sorry but this decision is just plain wrong but unfortunately that happens from time to time
 

Prester Jim

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Very good question, he cannot deliver on 90% of his promises and he often made completely contrary promises to different groups. It will be like the Labour party after the "Gilmore Gale" except yanks have access to automatic weapons.
 

The Field Marshal

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I'm sorry but this decision is just plain wrong but unfortunately that happens from time to time
You are the pretentious individual who has praised the Obama administration that has given the world ISIS ,the extended and avoidable Syrian civil war, and avoidable friction with Russia.
A far far more dangerous world.

Trump will create detente with Russia and in the process end the Syrian civil war and help Russia and Syria wipe out ISIS.
 

Spanner Island

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If he doesn't deliver is when things will really go pear shaped... cos there's more guns than people over there...

I reckon he just may deliver on enough for America though... at the expense of everyone else.
 

wombat

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He will probably get re-elected like Obama in 2012,Clinton in 1996,Regan in 1984 etc.
He's too old to run again. Reminds me a bit of Jimmy Carter, elected as a reaction to Ford's pardon of Nixon, complete failure in the job.
 

darkhorse

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Trump will deliver on his primary objectives - repealing ObamCare, building a wall and repatriating jobs
These are not overly ambitious targets to achieve
 

gleeful

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Trump will deliver on his primary objectives - repealing ObamCare, building a wall and repatriating jobs
These are not overly ambitious targets to achieve
The wall will be delayed years in the courts - the federal gov needs to buy land from 1000s of unwilling sellers
 

Boy M5

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He'll be in HUGE trouble. Believe me.
 

Boy M5

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He's too old to run again. Reminds me a bit of Jimmy Carter, elected as a reaction to Ford's pardon of Nixon, complete failure in the job.
Actually he wasn't.
He was unlucky.
 

The Field Marshal

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If he doesn't deliver is when things will really go pear shaped... cos there's more guns than people over there...

I reckon he just may deliver on enough for America though... at the expense of everyone else.
That assumes that what benefits America will damage the world.
History does not support that.

Trumps presidency will end both the Syrian war and ISIS.
In addition I am hopeful that long overdue detente with Russia will encourage Europe to do the same.
 

The Field Marshal

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Trump will deliver on his primary objectives - repealing ObamCare, building a wall and repatriating jobs
These are not overly ambitious targets to achieve
I do not think these are his real primary objectives .

IMV his real primary objectives, will be to reduce US federal spending and the national debt, improve relations with Russia, make NATO countries pay their fair share and return the USA to a more isolationist position.
Probably also give states greater autonomy in taxation matters if this is possible.

That is what can be reasonably inferred from all his statements
 

Franzoni

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Actually he wasn't.
He was unlucky.
Operation Eagle Claw....

If he had of pulled that off it would of been America's Entebbe ....
 


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