What odds on a FF wipeout in Dublin?



tiny tim

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Anyone know if the bookies are offering odds on Fianna Fáil ending up with no seats at all in Dublin after the election?

At the right odds, it could be worth a punt.
Its IMF controlled Ireland you live in not Utopia.................. but wouldn't it be great!
 

QuizMaster

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It won't be happening. For example in Dunlaoghaire they will keep one of their ministers.
 

commonman

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the goverment are in the dail today whats the odds that this might be there last meeting
 

Mushroom

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It won't be happening. For example in Dunlaoghaire they will keep one of their ministers.

Please God it will be Hanafin - Bugsy doesn't deserve a seat in the public toilets on the East Pier, let alone in Dail Eireann.

Can anyone tell me how many funerals of kids who have died in the 'care' of the HSE during his watch he has attended?
 

Toland

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She chickened out of appearing on Marian Finucane's panel today, afraid she would have to answer questions.
I'd say she's discussing her options with her family and advisors about taking the helm on the hopelessly sinking boat she's currently Passenger Entertainment Officer for.

She's a talented politician. If I were her, I'd pack up my carpet bag and go on the road.
 

Sync

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Odds are zero. There's no way Ahern or Lenihan will fail to get elected if they stand.
 

Mushroom

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I'd say she's discussing her options with her family and advisors about taking the helm on that hopelessly sinking boat.

She's a talented politician. If I were her, I'd pack up my carpet bag and go on the road.
I agree - but she can't - she's a prisoner of her family history.

After all, if Des wouldn't go when Haughey was busily trying to rifle the party funds and seek digouts from donors, then why on earth would she leave over a minor issue like an IMF bailout?
 

Berty

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They should be wiped out but I have serious doubts. If anyone of them survive the next GE then we have learned absolutely nothing.
 

FakeViking

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She's a talented politician. If I were her, I'd pack up my carpet bag and go on the road.
She's an overrated prolonged photo opportunity that can't make decisions. She had a long run in Education, swanning around to ribbon cuttings in marginal constituencies, and she's sat around the Cabinet table (remember, she was FF Chief whip before being promoted) when all the bad decisions were being made by McCreevy, Ahern, Cowen and Lenihan.
 

Mushroom

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She's an overrated prolonged photo opportunity that can't make decisions. She had a long run in Education, swanning around to ribbon cuttings in marginal constituencies, and she's sat around the Cabinet table (remember, she was FF Chief whip before being promoted) when all the bad decisions were being made by McCreevy, Ahern, Cowen and Lenihan.

Sorry about this but HARNEY and McDOWELL must be included in the above list.

Does the Chief Whip have a vote at Cabinet Meetings or are they there mainly as eye candy?
 

commonman

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Sorry about this but HARNEY and McDOWELL must be included in the above list.

Does the Chief Whip have a vote at Cabinet Meetings or are they there mainly as eye candy?
we should bring in the same system as in the USA vote in a president let him or her pick there team from any walk of life and out after four years
 

blackpitts

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She's an overrated prolonged photo opportunity that can't make decisions. She had a long run in Education, swanning around to ribbon cuttings in marginal constituencies, and she's sat around the Cabinet table (remember, she was FF Chief whip before being promoted) when all the bad decisions were being made by McCreevy, Ahern, Cowen and Lenihan.
I agree she's just as culpable as the rest of them but I think her Holier than Thou Holy Mary aura might be enough to convince the average voter that she wasn't "really" involved in the corruption, just praying on the sidelines.
 

dotski_w_

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Odds are zero. There's no way Ahern or Lenihan will fail to get elected if they stand.
The odds are very unlikely, but I'd call Lenihen to lose. Aside from him having gambled and lost big time on the economy, he's in the unfortunate position where there's an excellent candidate to his right, a LP that's stacking up votes sky high, and a hard left (and well liked) candidate who will motivate many would wouldn't normally turn out.

Even the Sindo appear to be deserting him today.

But to take the main issue, I think it's very unlikely because of the cumulative odds of all their chances not coming off. I've curently got them taking seats in Sth, SE and Dun Laoghaire. Now say there's a swing against them, those may all become minority chances of say 33% probability. But to lose all three, the odds would be 0.67 cubed, i.e. 30% probability - and that's before you factor in the chances of pulling in a longer shot.

This is a little on the theoretical side, as you can't say for certain the probability of anyone being elected, but the probability exists. Say they had an average probability of being elected of 7% in each constituency (1 chance in 14) - that's a very long shot, and means that there's a 93% probability that they'll fail in each case. But the cumulative probability of failing in all 11 is 45%. It's like Blackpool being promoted to the Premiership. They may have a much worse set of players, and may enter all their away matches as likely to lose, but the odds of them losing all of them is practically zero.
 


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