What seats are FF likely to lose in the next GE???



wombat

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It depends when an election is held and what the alternative on offer is. Do not underestimate FF's powers of recovery.
 

DaveM

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They may lose one in Wicklow (last GE - FF 2, FG 2, Lab 1). Behan and Roche are both Bray based. Behan, who resigned the whip last year, is pretty disillusioned by all accounts and may not run next time out, either for FF or as an Indo. FG will at least hold their two with a shout of three - they did well in the locals, particularly Simon Harris in Greystones who, although very young, would be a good third candidate. Labour are also in with a fighting shout of getting two seats - they've come very close in the past. SF are active enough around Wicklow but I'd find it hard to see them being in with a shout of knicking a seat. However a strong SF showing could mean more transfers for Labour.

I'd say FG 2/3, Lab 2/1, FF 1 next time out. FG or Lab to nick that second FF seat.
 

asset test

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Well not John O'Donoghue's seat in Kerry anyway. Unless he has the morals to resign over the expenses scandal. One definite seat for them so. Sorry, haven't a clue about where they might lose seats, but a hell of a lot I sincerely hope.
 
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Seats in Danger of being lost (From Last Election)

Bobby Alyward or MJ Nolan in Carlow Kilkenny to FG
Rory O'Hanlon in Cavan Monaghan to FG
Michael Ahern in Cork East to FG
Noel O'Flynn in Cork North Central to Lab
Batt O'Keefe in Cork North West to FG
Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central to FG
Darragh O'Brien in Dublin North to Lab
Noel Ahern in Dublin North West to SF
Seamus Brennan in Dublin South to FG
Sean Ardagh in Dublin South Central to Lab
Conor Lenihan in Dublin South West to Lab
Mary Hanifan or Barry Andrews in Dun Laoghaire to PBP
Michael Fitzpatrick in Kildare North to Ind
Sean Power in Kildare South to FG
Peter Power in Limerick City
John Cregan or Niall Collins in Limerick to FG
Thomas Byrne or Mary Wallace in Meath East to Lab
Jimmy Devins in Sligo North Leitrim to FG
Martin Manseragh in Tipperary South to Ind
Brendan Kenneally in Waterford
Joe Behan in Wicklow to Ind

So that's 20 Seats in grave Danger, Mind you the same might have been said in 2004 and look what happened in 2007.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Based on the Sunday Tribune study extrapolating GE results from the local elections (if they were the same),the govt parties would lose 35 seats. So FF would lose 28 seats either from losses in the following constituencies, or because of the creation of new constituencies: *new constituencies

Carlow-Kilkenny: -1
Cavan-Monaghan: -1
Cork East: -1
CNC: -1
CNW: -1
CSC: -1
Dublin Central: -1
Dublin Nth: -1
Dub NW: -2
Dub Sth: -1
Dub SC: -1
Dub SW: -1
Dun Laoghaire: -2
Galway E: -1
Galway W: -1
Kerry North-West Limerick*: FF wins 1 here
Kildare Nth: -1
Kildare Sth: -1
Limerick city*: FF would get 1 seat here
Limerick*: FF would get 1 seat here
Louth: FF (-1)
Meath East: -1
Meath West: -1
Sligo/Leitrim North: -1
Tipperary South: -1
Waterford: -1
Wicklow: -1
 
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DaveM

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Well not John O'Donoghue's seat in Kerry anyway. Unless he has the morals to resign over the expenses scandal. One definite seat for them so. Sorry, haven't a clue about where they might lose seats, but a hell of a lot I sincerely hope.
You reckon? Michael Lowry is still doing pretty well. The sad reality is that many people really don't give a damn about politicians having sticky fingers and the O'Donoghue expenses story will probably be long forgotten by the time the next GE comes round. In any event he'll be automatically returned as the CC so it's academic anyway.
 

asset test

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You reckon? Michael Lowry is still doing pretty well. The sad reality is that many people really don't give a damn about politicians having sticky fingers and the O'Donoghue expenses story will probably be long forgotten by the time the next GE comes round. In any event he'll be automatically returned as the CC so it's academic anyway.
That's what I meant about JOD, he is CC. and automatically returned (unless he has the cojones to resign that is!)
 

CookieMonster

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They'll lose one in Kildare North. There are two FF TDs there. Michael Fitzpatrick who has been FF here for years, former councilor, former Mayor and so on. There is also Aine Brady who has been FF for about 20 minuites before teh election, former Kitt, possibly still a schoolteacher... the embodyment of everything that is wrong with Fianna Fail.

Knowing the danger of losing a seat in in Kildare North FF decided they needed to up the profile of at least one candidate there. They, of couse, chose the parachute candidate, of the Kitt dynasty and ardent Bertie supporter, Aine Brady over the well known and well liked, hard working public servant with a proven track record and made Brady a Minister for State (With responsibility for Photo ops and making weird claims about transport).

The same woman who thinks it's quicker to fly from Shannon than Dublin for people who live in Clane... crackers!
 
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Seats in Danger of being lost (From Last Election)

Bobby Alyward or MJ Nolan in Carlow Kilkenny to FG
Mary Hanifan or Barry Andrews in Dun Laoghaire to PBP
Joe Behan in Wicklow to Ind

.
Hope I'm not being pedantic but I disagree on some of those; Carlow Kilkenny seat will be green lost to FG (Carlow votes for Carlow candidate) but FF lose to Labour in Kilkenny

Hanafin or Andrews to lose as Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown drops a seat but Greens to lose to PBP

Also John Browne's seat to be lost to FG, Browne unlikely to run, Liam Twomey to regain for FG
 

hammer

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All of them hopefully.

Sorry, this is Ireland isn`t it.........

Probably get an overall majority next time
 

scheister

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They'll lose one in Kildare North. There are two FF TDs there. Michael Fitzpatrick who has been FF here for years, former councilor, former Mayor and so on. There is also Aine Brady who has been FF for about 20 minuites before teh election, former Kitt, possibly still a schoolteacher... the embodyment of everything that is wrong with Fianna Fail.

Knowing the danger of losing a seat in in Kildare North FF decided they needed to up the profile of at least one candidate there. They, of couse, chose the parachute candidate, of the Kitt dynasty and ardent Bertie supporter, Aine Brady over the well known and well liked, hard working public servant with a proven track record and made Brady a Minister for State (With responsibility for Photo ops and making weird claims about transport).

The same woman who thinks it's quicker to fly from Shannon than Dublin for people who live in Clane... crackers!
there are down the fitzpatrick seat will be amazed if they keep it I'd say murphy will run and take it off him. Brady will not top the poll like last time but should keep her seat
 

flavirostris

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there are down the fitzpatrick seat will be amazed if they keep it I'd say murphy will run and take it off him. Brady will not top the poll like last time but should keep her seat
One of the most depressing spectacles of the '07 Election was Aine Brady topping the poll in Kildare North. This was supposed to be the place where people were up in arms over class sizes, lack of infrastructure, bad planning etc..
Very similar to Meath East.
But these commuter belt constituencies decided to do a 180 and give FF a ringing endorsement in the end.
 
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Also John Browne's seat to be lost to FG, Browne unlikely to run, Liam Twomey to regain for FG
Fine Gael are unlikely to gain a 3rd seat in Wexford, Sean Connick is safe as are D'Arcy, Kehoe and Howlin, Browne's seat will probably got to Malcolm Byrne of FF or Lisa McDonald but that is quite unlikely.
 

earth

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Hard to imagine FF losing two seats in Meath.

Dempsey and Brady are very secure, I would've thought. Brady has benefitted from the constituency redraw before the last election and Dempsey has managed to top the poll regularly despite the mess that is Trim. Damien English can now feel that his seat is secure, but I'd be surprised if FG or Lab can win another.

In Meath East, it'd be no harm if both Byrne and Wallace lost their seats.
 
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Hard to imagine FF losing two seats in Meath.

Dempsey and Brady are very secure, I would've thought. Brady has benefitted from the constituency redraw before the last election and Dempsey has managed to top the poll regularly despite the mess that is Trim. Damien English can now feel that his seat is secure, but I'd be surprised if FG or Lab can win another.

In Meath East, it'd be no harm if both Byrne and Wallace lost their seats.
I Don't like Mary Wallace, and there's only going to be 1 FF seat in Meath East Next time so I wouldn't shed any tears if she went, Byrne is one to watch for the future.
 

asset test

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How, how, can any FF TD retain a seat? That is the amazing thing for me. What makes someone vote FF?, I just cannot fathom it. Must be the local factor, who does most for the voter out of the pack. Well they are in power at the moment, so must have influence, no? Is that it really? Or could it be that a voter actually thinks FF is good for the country?
 

CookieMonster

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there are down the fitzpatrick seat will be amazed if they keep it I'd say murphy will run and take it off him. Brady will not top the poll like last time but should keep her seat
Brady shouldn't keep her seat... but will. :D

I'd like to see Murphy in though.
 


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