What seats are FF likely to lose in the next GE???

flamez911

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Dun Laoghaire- Richard Boyd Barrett will pick up a seat from our Green and Barry Andrews will lose to a Lab or a FG. If things continue to go downhill there could be a chance of Hanafin losing as well- FF polled a massive 15% in votes overall in Dun Laoghaire, and with the being almost as transfer-toxic as Sinn Féin here, if that goes down to 12% they could be seriously looking at Hanafin going
 


flavirostris

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So that's 20 Seats in grave Danger, Mind you the same might have been said in 2004 and look what happened in 2007.
One key difference between 2004-2007 and 2007-2009.
Fianna Fáil no longer have an economic card
 

SamVimesBoots

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Or could it be that a voter actually thinks FF is good for the country?
The voter doesn't care about the country. There is absolutely no sense of civic nationalism, and hence absolutely no inclination to link the antics of your local gombeeen with the state of the country as a whole. So most voters just vote for whoever is most likely to benefit them personally. Possibly their voting intentions might rise to the dizzying heights of considering who would be good for them, the village, and also the next village over.

I'd say less than a third of voters actually have any real notion about the state of the country, the policies of the parties and candidates, and vote accordingly.
 
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I don't think there are two Labour seats in CNC. Gerry Kelly would be in with a shout, or a strong independent/left-leaning candidate. Mick Barry comes to mind.
With Allen likely to retire alot of his personal votes will go elsewhere and may not stay in FG, Mick Barry got 26% in one LEA, There are 4 in Cork North Central and the Socialists barely registered in them so its unlikely the Socialist Party will gain, they'd be lucky to get 8-10% in a general election and Sinn Féin won't gain as their star has waned.
 

scheister

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Brady shouldn't keep her seat... but will. :D

I'd like to see Murphy in though.
North kildare will look odd next time brady murphy scully and stagg will take the seat to make it 1ff 1fg 1lab 1 indo
 

Derrida

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I seriously believe that Kerry North will become the first place in the country without any FF TD. They have two of the most useless members already (Denihen and McEllistrim) but tommy will lose his seat due to lack of transfers and an the soon-to-be-unmasked-as-a-pea-brain Arthur Spring will be elected. Denehin FG Ferris SF and Spring Lab in K north. It's almost a certainty.
 

wombat

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Dun Laoghaire- Richard Boyd Barrett will pick up a seat from our Green and Barry Andrews will lose to a Lab or a FG. If things continue to go downhill there could be a chance of Hanafin losing as well- FF polled a massive 15% in votes overall in Dun Laoghaire, and with the being almost as transfer-toxic as Sinn Féin here, if that goes down to 12% they could be seriously looking at Hanafin going
Doubt that Boyd Barrett will have enough votes in a 4 seater to take a seat. Even if he gets all the Cabinteely votes, they have no presence in Blackrock. A lot depends on what rows FG have among themselves but they should be able to take Hanafin's seat if there's a swing against FF - Andrews is safe.
 

flavirostris

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. A lot depends on what rows FG have among themselves but they should be able to take Hanafin's seat if there's a swing against FF - Andrews is safe.
that's interesting.
I would have thought Hanafin was safer as the senior FF rep and minister. Does the whole Andrews dynasty thing count for much
 

CookieMonster

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North kildare will look odd next time brady murphy scully and stagg will take the seat to make it 1ff 1fg 1lab 1 indo
I though Stagg was retiring? I don't know why I think that though and I may be wrong.
 

wombat

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Does the whole Andrews dynasty thing count for much
Yes - Andrews will have the support of the local organisation if it comes to protecting one seat.
 

flavirostris

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Yes - Andrews will have the support of the local organisation if it comes to protecting one seat.
Hanfin won't, being a culchie from Tipperary..
 

Catalpa

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While its unlikely but Brian Lenihan losing his seat in Dublin West would be a Bombshell!:eek:

But with FG now bitterly divided over the back stabbing and the rug pulling from the Locals it might be Labours to walk away with two in their back pocket from this one

- if the play their cards right here....:)
 

wombat

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Hanfin won't, being a culchie from Tipperary..
There are probably as many culchies in DL as Dubs but the Andrews name and the favours owed to the old man will see him safe.
 

scheister

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I though Stagg was retiring? I don't know why I think that though and I may be wrong.

i have heard both. if he goes from what i hear byrne will be on the ticket currently CC in celbridge. well liked in celbridge not sure will he get the votes in a GE
 

Derrida

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Doubt that Boyd Barrett will have enough votes in a 4 seater to take a seat. Even if he gets all the Cabinteely votes, they have no presence in Blackrock. A lot depends on what rows FG have among themselves but they should be able to take Hanafin's seat if there's a swing against FF - Andrews is safe.
Ok(assuming FG Barrett retires) lets say Gilmore is in, Andrews is in and that gobsh1te Regan is in. Fourth seat between RBB, Hannifan, Cuffe and some other dross from FG. Cuffe goes and elects RBB..... that's the only plausible outcome, isn't it ?

If Barrett does not retire then Eugene might sneak a second seat, or he might not. I WOULD LOVE IT if he failed again.
 

wombat

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Ok(assuming FG Barrett retires) lets say Gilmore is in, Andrews is in and that gobsh1te Regan is in. Fourth seat between RBB, Hannifan, Cuffe and some other dross from FG. Cuffe goes and elects RBB..... that's the only plausible outcome, isn't it ?

If Barrett does not retire then Eugene might sneak a second seat, or he might not. I WOULD LOVE IT if he failed again.
Barrett will not retire and should hold his seat. Gilmore is safe but won't risk having a strong running mate. There is one FF seat, my bet is Andrews. If FG get their act together (unlikely on past performance), they should take a 2nd seat but it could be between FG, RBB, Hanafin. A lot will depend on the size of Cuffe's vote & who they transfer to.
 

irish_bob

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Hard to imagine FF losing two seats in Meath.

Dempsey and Brady are very secure, I would've thought. Brady has benefitted from the constituency redraw before the last election and Dempsey has managed to top the poll regularly despite the mess that is Trim. Damien English can now feel that his seat is secure, but I'd be surprised if FG or Lab can win another.

In Meath East, it'd be no harm if both Byrne and Wallace lost their seats.
labour will most likely gain a seat in meath east at the expense of wallace i hope , i think thomas byrne is a very bright , articulate and fairly decent guy too , fine gael made a huge tactical error in 2007 , not running mairead mc guinness in meath east where she actually lives , she would have walked it , its a constituency with no real high profile TD where as the competition in louth where she ran is or at least was very strong

in meath west , while johny brady is nothing special , thier is no one in fine gael who really stands out as a contender for that seat

i think fine gael will make at least one gain in cavan - monaghan
 
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house

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I don't think there are two Labour seats in CNC. Gerry Kelly would be in with a shout, or a strong independent/left-leaning candidate. Mick Barry comes to mind.
kelly not running. former lord mayor darragh murphy in with a good shout in his place. barry on 4% only gets vote in one city ward.
 


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