What seats are FF likely to lose in the next GE???

Tea Party Patriot

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Seats in Danger of being lost (From Last Election)

John Cregan or Niall Collins in Limerick to FG

So that's 20 Seats in grave Danger, Mind you the same might have been said in 2004 and look what happened in 2007.
This is going to be an interesting battle, the collins machine is pretty powerful in west limerick but the loss of votes with abbyfeal going into kerry north is large and could benifit Creegan whose base is more central in the county and he is better know at a local level.

Also there is a substantial FF surplus here traditionally so they can afford to drop some votes; but FG are well in the majority in the part of East Limerick that came in so they should take an extra seat. However Heffernan for Labour could be a dark horse, polling over 2K in the locals and is well liked on the ground, he could be one of the few rural labour candidates with a chance, albeit an outside one.
 


Fenian Óg

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CNC doesn't have two Labour seats. It'll prob be FG and Johnathan O'Brien would take it before Mick Barry.

CSC too...one of them's gonna go.
 

msteiner

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I'm currently making a statistical model to project the election results. It seems, according to opinion polls, that in some areas, SF is benefiting most from beleaguered Republican voters. A clear example of this phenomenon is noticed in the opinion polls in Donegal South West, a normally strong FF base that has the SF candidate with an absolutely huge lead. In other words, those folks that are disillusioned Republican nationalist FF supporters will probably go with SF.
 

Doorstepper

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I'm doing the same here now, msteiner, slowly and dispassionately. I'm bringing this Thread up, as it IS the question on everyone's mind.

Before my first seat-based assessment, I'm already sure that (i) they'll lose lots (ii) the meltdown will not approach a wipe-out. I reserve a first call until I've studied the key local areas That's where the decisive few will be in this big question.

My first question to myself will be: "Can Labour take 2nd position from FF in '11?" I doubt it. But I've no doubt already that Enda will be driving up to the Park by next May, while all the ex-Green TDs watch at home. I mean, is there ANYONE who thinks now that FF will form the next Govt? The modesty of acknowledged defeat, while persevering, might yet retrieve FF. They won't be destroyed, that's for sure.
 

exiled

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Michael Kennedy and Darragh O brien will lose thier seats for sure in Dublin North
 

bollox

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North West European area would be my best knowledge:

Clare: I think Kileen will lose out.

Cavan-Monaghan: Conlon to lose, Smith to get last seat.

Donegal NE: Well we lost McDaid and won't reclaim it

Donegal SW: Think Coughlan is in trouble and may have O'Domhnaill running her close for
the FF seat.

Galway East: Tracey to hold if he runs

Galway West: Fahey gone

Longford-Westmeath: Peter Kelly gone only because Mammy is likable somehow by people!

Mayo: Calleary gone although will Bev run???

Roscommon-S.Leitrim: We'll hold Finneran here

Sligo-N.Leitrim: Devins gone
 

Marcos the black

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Think Hocter is gone in Tipp North.
Lowry, Kelly and Coonan to take the seats.. First time since foundation of state that no FF seat in North Tipp.
 

Trophonius

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I believe that F will lose the following seats (includes seats of retiring TD's). These current predictions are based on the last RED C poll, which had FF on 13%. Those marked with (*) could hold their seats at the expense of their running mate.

Carlow/Kilkenny: Liam Aylward, MJ Nolan
Cavan/Monaghan: Rory O'Hanlon, Margaret Conlon
Clare: Timmy Dooley*
Cork East: Michael Ahern
Cork North Central: Noel O'Flynn*
Cork North West: Batt O'Keeffe
Donegal North East : Jim McDaid
Dublin Central: Bertie Ahern, Cyprian Brady
Dublin North: Michael Kennedy, Daragh O'Brien
Dublin North Central: Sean Haughey
Dublin North East: Michael Woods
Dublin North West: Pat Carey*
Dublin South Central: Sean Ardagh
Dublin South West: Conor Lenihan
Dun Laoighre: Barry Andrews
Galway East: Noel Treacy
Galway West: Frank Fahey
Kerry North/Limerick West: Tom McEllistrom
Kildare North: Michael Fitzpatrick
Kildare South: Sean Power*
Laois/Offaly: John Moloney
Limerick: John Creegan
Limerick City: Peter Power
Longford/Westmeath: Mary O'Rourke
Mayo: Dara Colleary
Meath East: Mary Wallace, Thomas Byrne
Meath West: Johnny Brady
Sligo/Nth Leitrim: Jimmy Devins
Tipperary North: Marie Hoctor
Tipperary South: Martin Manseragh
Waterford: Martin Cullen
Wexford: Sean Connick*

I make that a loss of 37 seats from current standings, which would give FF 33. However these predictions could change with the emergence of new polls as we get closer to the election (either more loses or not as many).
 

bmw1

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I believe that F will lose the following seats (includes seats of retiring TD's). These current predictions are based on the last RED C poll, which had FF on 13%. Those marked with (*) could hold their seats at the expense of their running mate.

Carlow/Kilkenny: Liam Aylward, MJ Nolan
Cavan/Monaghan: Rory O'Hanlon, Margaret Conlon
Clare: Timmy Dooley*
Cork East: Michael Ahern
Cork North Central: Noel O'Flynn*
Cork North West: Batt O'Keeffe
Donegal North East : Jim McDaid
Dublin Central: Bertie Ahern, Cyprian Brady
Dublin North: Michael Kennedy, Daragh O'Brien
Dublin North Central: Sean Haughey
Dublin North East: Michael Woods
Dublin North West: Pat Carey*
Dublin South Central: Sean Ardagh
Dublin South West: Conor Lenihan
Dun Laoighre: Barry Andrews
Galway East: Noel Treacy
Galway West: Frank Fahey
Kerry North/Limerick West: Tom McEllistrom
Kildare North: Michael Fitzpatrick
Kildare South: Sean Power*
Laois/Offaly: John Moloney
Limerick: John Creegan
Limerick City: Peter Power
Longford/Westmeath: Mary O'Rourke
Mayo: Dara Colleary
Meath East: Mary Wallace, Thomas Byrne
Meath West: Johnny Brady
Sligo/Nth Leitrim: Jimmy Devins
Tipperary North: Marie Hoctor
Tipperary South: Martin Manseragh
Waterford: Martin Cullen
Wexford: Sean Connick*

I make that a loss of 37 seats from current standings, which would give FF 33. However these predictions could change with the emergence of new polls as we get closer .
it beats me how ff would get 33 seats on 13 % when fg only managed 31 on about 23%
now lads do the maths
13%=
nothing in a 3 seater (except in donegal maybe)
nothing in a 4 seater
and very few in 5 seaters
as there is no transfer they wont be up much after first pref
i put a final figure based on 13% at somewher between 5 and 10 seats
the figures dont lie
 

Trophonius

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I make it 14 constituencies that won't return any FF. It is possible for them to attain 30+ seats. 13% is an average (I actually have it as 13.19%). However, they are not going to poll 13% in all constituencies, they will be higher in some, lower in others. Certain candidates will get elected relatively easily, however I will concede that some of the FF I have returned will be last ditch battles for seats, but I believe that they will hang on. FF will be badly beaten up in Dublin (6 at the very best), but will probably return one in all Connaught-Ulster constituencies (bar Roscommon-Sth Leitrim), and in all bar one of the Cork constituencies. They will have 2 seats in one constituency, Laois-Offaly, because of Cowen, and also Enrights decision to retire.
 


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