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What should our population be?


Malbekh

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Joined
Apr 30, 2009
Messages
3,032
Greetings.

Firstly I would ask (in vain), that the various anti-immigration agenda monkeys would please leave this thread alone, seeing as it is based on fantasy with a little wishful thinking about future population growth. If you can't leave it alone, at least act with some civility.





YearPopulation %Change
20114.58m+7.4
20064.24m+8.1
20023.92m+8.2
19963.63m+2.9
19913.53m-(0.6)
19863.54m+2.8
19813.44m+2.3
19793.37m+13.2
19712.98m+3.2
19662.88m+2.3
19612.82m-(2.7)
19562.90m-(2.2)
19512.96m+0.3
19462.96m-(0.5)
19362.97m-(0.2)
19262.97m-(5.4)
19113.14m-(2.6)
19013.22m-(7.1)
18913.47m-(10.3)
18813.87m-(4.5)
18714.05m-(5.7)
18614.40m-(13.9)
18515.11m-(21.7)
18416.53m

The graph and the table above give raw information to what we already know. A dependence on a single crop, compounded by political, religious, social and economic issues exacerbated the disaster that was the Great Potato Famine. I'm not the right person to give any opinions on why the population continued to fall until it started to recover at the latter part of the 20th century. Other people can comment on that.

What I am interested in however, is what people think the population of the Republic would be at this stage, if the potato blight was not as severe or if the exodus of emigration was reduced. Personally, I think a population of about 12 to 14m would be a reasonable guess. So basically, up to three times the population we have now. The population of the Greater Dublin area would be about 5m alone. Our economy would be completely different, as the larger population would drive a stronger and more competitive domestic economy.

This destruction of our population base made us unique in Europe. Thankfully these days the reverse is true. Regardless of our onerous recession, we are still showing exceptionally strong population growth demographics.




Fiona Muldoon of the Central Bank was once asked what positives there were to be had in Ireland in the light of our financial sector, and the debts inherent in the domestic and business system. Her answer was to highlight our strong population growth, because it was the only positive growth we could depend upon in the next few years.

This is the positive thing. We are experiencing a population boom not just in births but also with immigration. It may well be the only positive we have over the next 5 years. Regardless of the foibles of the current government, the rest of the world will eventually recover. Exports will lead the way, and a new domestic economy will emerge from what's left of the Armageddon behind it.

That being the case. What should our population be? Should we aim to increase it to 10-12m by 2040 or beyond? Should this growth come for EU citizens only or should we be more accommodating to all nationalities? What do you think?
 

ruserious

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Jan 3, 2011
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29,597
Lay back and breed for Ireland. Nice slogan for a future growth strategy.
 

IbrahaimMohamad

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Feb 5, 2013
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expanding population to 20 million by attracting the most talented people in the world to live in Ireland will solve many of our problems
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

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How many couples have put off having children, because they are trapped in inappropriate houses, or are plain broke?
 

Cruimh

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Apr 30, 2010
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85,704
This is the positive thing. We are experiencing a population boom not just in births but also with immigration. It may well be the only positive we have over the next 5 years. Regardless of the foibles of the current government, the rest of the world will eventually recover. Exports will lead the way, and a new domestic economy will emerge from what's left of the Armageddon behind it.

That being the case. What should our population be? Should we aim to increase it to 10-12m by 2040 or beyond? Should this growth come for EU citizens only or should we be more accommodating to all nationalities? What do you think?
Population should be smaller - it used to be the dream that all of Ireland would have a self sufficient population of 20 odd million. That isn't going to happen. So, if the population gets a lot bigger, besides the problem of housing, how are these people to be employed and fed etc. at any sort of decent standard of living, let alone the standard of living presently expected?
 

Malbekh

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Apr 30, 2009
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How many couples have put off having children, because they are trapped in inappropriate houses, or are plain broke?
Planning for children is something based on hope, not on arithmetic. Scary figures are given on much it costs to have children, didn't stop us then, and I don't regret it now.
 

Malbekh

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Apr 30, 2009
Messages
3,032
Population should be smaller - it used to be the dream that all of Ireland would have a self sufficient population of 20 odd million. That isn't going to happen. So, if the population gets a lot bigger, besides the problem of housing, how are these people to be employed and fed etc. at any sort of decent standard of living, let alone the standard of living presently expected?
Who's going to pay for your pension then Cruimh? Try hope. It works sometimes.
 

pragmaticapproach

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Jul 21, 2010
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8,817
expanding population to 20 million by attracting the most talented people in the world to live in Ireland will solve many of our problems
And if it doesnt work out, we can always start exporting soylent green, its a win win :)

Better do up a business plan just in case.
 

Drogheda445

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Feb 13, 2012
Messages
6,529
I would imagine had the famine not taken place the population today would stand around 25 million (the whole island that is), going by other European population trends. Its quite shocking to think that we were perhaps the only European country to see a collapse in population during this period. Most countries in Europe saw their populations double if not triple in size. England's population grew from about 15 million to about 40 million in a mere 100 years.

Its safe to say Ireland would look very different had the famine not have occurred, culturally, economically and probably politically.

Although I don't see a huge issue with having a small population. All of the Scandinavian countries have populations below 10 million and are among the most prosperous in Europe. You can expect our population in particular to grow faster than our neighbours into the future, unless emigration rises.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
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As it is now. Mass immigration contributed to a housing bubble, and gave us tens of thousands of foreign-nationals on the dole which we cannot afford.

Population increase also has negative implications for the environment, resulting in urban sprawl and the destruction of national monuments. There is a very powerful anti high-rise housing lobby that means population increase could only result in building outward not upward on any large scale.
 

Ren84

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Jan 14, 2011
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50,016
Population should be smaller - it used to be the dream that all of Ireland would have a self sufficient population of 20 odd million. That isn't going to happen. So, if the population gets a lot bigger, besides the problem of housing, how are these people to be employed and fed etc. at any sort of decent standard of living, let alone the standard of living presently expected?
Tripe. Ireland can easily look after 20 million+ people. Have your seen how many people are crammed into territories smaller than Ireland FFS? :roll:
 

niall78

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Sep 10, 2010
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11,285
True, but that has not stopped the "irresponsible" and the lesser well off folks
You one of the Irish master race or something?

How well off does a couple have to be for you to deem it OK for them to have kids?
 

Cruimh

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I would imagine had the famine not taken place the population today would stand around 25 million (the whole island that is), going by other European population trends. Its quite shocking to think that we were perhaps the only European country to see a collapse in population during this period. Most countries in Europe saw their populations double if not triple in size. England's population grew from about 15 million to about 40 million in a mere 100 years.

Its safe to say Ireland would look very different had the famine not have occurred, culturally, economically and probably politically.
Not really comparable surely? The big population increase in England was down to changes that didn't apply here - the Industrial revolution provided employment.
 

Ren84

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Joined
Jan 14, 2011
Messages
50,016
I would imagine had the famine not taken place the population today would stand around 25 million (the whole island that is), going by other European population trends. Its quite shocking to think that we were perhaps the only European country to see a collapse in population during this period. Most countries in Europe saw their populations double if not triple in size. England's population grew from about 15 million to about 40 million in a mere 100 years.

Its safe to say Ireland would look very different had the famine not have occurred, culturally, economically and probably politically.

Although I don't see a huge issue with having a small population. All of the Scandinavian countries have populations below 10 million and are among the most prosperous in Europe. You can expect our population in particular to grow faster than our neighbours into the future, unless emigration rises.
I think 15-20 million is about right had the famine not occurred. As for the talk about Ireland not being able to carry that many people I would direct their gaze to countries like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, nations with population densities far higher than us.
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

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Planning for children is something based on hope, not on arithmetic. Scary figures
are given on much it costs to have children, didn't stop us then, and I don't regret it now.
I'm of your mindset - ploughing away, in hope of another.

How often do you see it said around here that people shouldn't procreate if they are broke?

House size is a problem, as are childcare costs
 

Drogheda445

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I often think how we might have differed culturally rather than demographically had the famine not taken place. We would probably have had a substantial Irish speaking population well into the 20th century, although its decline wasn't hastened so much by the famine as it was by parents choosing to raise their children speaking English.
 
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