What will be the "no" margin in DL in the abortion referendum

Bertie's Hat

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As we all know, Donegal has a habit of rejecting referenda and is known as one of the spots of the country with more traditional values (in some ways). The people are also rather stubborn compared to those in other counties. The same sex marriage referendum was narrowly passed by the Donegal electorate, in Donegal South West only by 29 votes.

Therefore I think it is safe to say that DL will vote resoundingly "NO" to the proposal on May 25th. The question is just by what margin, I think it could be around 65:35 in favour of "NO".

Any thoughts?

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commonman

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I believe that No will win, i did not even make up my mind yet, i just have that gut feeling.
 

sadmal

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As we all know, Donegal has a habit of rejecting referenda and is known as one of the spots of the country with more traditional values (in some ways). The people are also rather stubborn compared to those in other counties. The same sex marriage referendum was narrowly passed by the Donegal electorate, in Donegal South West only by 29 votes.

Therefore I think it is safe to say that DL will vote resoundingly "NO" to the proposal on May 25th. The question is just by what margin, I think it could be around 65:35 in favour of "NO".

Any thoughts?

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Do you know what it was first time around in 1983 for the Yes side? I'd say it be similar for the No side this time.
 

flavirostris

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Donegal NE Yes vote in 2015 was 52%, so No vote this time should be well over 60%. I'll take a stab at 67%. It's one of the safest No's in the country
 

Bertie's Hat

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Do you know what it was first time around in 1983 for the Yes side? I'd say it be similar for the No side this time.
82% in both Donegal constituencies voted in favour of 8th in 1983, according to Wikipedia.

Just looking at the constituency results there are huge variances in the vote across constituencies. As low as 42% voted yes in Dun Laoghaire, parts of Dublin in 40s, Kildare and Wicklow 50s. Many rural areas in 60s and 70s

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automaticforthepeople

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I thought DL meant Dun Laoghaire! If there's a no margin there, then the game is up! That said, when the dirt gets going to turn people off expect the real gap between Yes and No to narrow considerably.

The no campaign are keeping their powder dry and now saying too much now. I presume Pearse Doherty will be out on the media all the time hammering home his party's policy, once it's decided in June, that is.
 

Fats_Portnoy

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turnout is going to be critical. I just don't see young people on message they they were with SSM. I think the youth vote won't materialise on the day.
 

flavirostris

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turnout is going to be critical. I just don't see young people on message they they were with SSM. I think the youth vote won't materialise on the day.
Repeal definitely has the hipster vote. Every hipster in Ireland has the little grey 'Repeal 8' badge. But can hipsters be relied upon to turn up at the polls the same way 70 year old women can ?
 

Bertie's Hat

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Repeal definitely has the hipster vote. Every hipster in Ireland has the little grey 'Repeal 8' badge. But can hipsters be relied upon to turn up at the polls the same way 70 year old women can ?
Definitely not, there are not enough of them. Even a lot of non hipsters in their 20s and 30s do not vote

I don't trust the opinion polls to tell the story

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sadmal

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I thought DL meant Dun Laoghaire! If there's a no margin there, then the game is up! That said, when the dirt gets going to turn people off expect the real gap between Yes and No to narrow considerably.

The no campaign are keeping their powder dry and now saying too much now. I presume Pearse Doherty will be out on the media all the time hammering home his party's policy, once it's decided in June, that is.
There is a surprising article from a Sinn Fein councillor in the latest edition of Alive.

Speakers Corner
 
D

Deleted member 45466

Repeal definitely has the hipster vote. Every hipster in Ireland has the little grey 'Repeal 8' badge. But can hipsters be relied upon to turn up at the polls the same way 70 year old women can ?
If they have a murder of feminazis threatening them a la AOR, then they won't have much choice.

A bit more confident than before Christmas. The sight of all the pro life posters was up lifting.

From a PR point of view, PL are ahead - for the moment. It'll be interesting to see pro-abortion's riposte. It's going to be a difficult sell via sloganeering. The vids they've produced wouldn't look out of place in the Horror section of a video store.
 

ger12

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Fats_Portnoy

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Repeal definitely has the hipster vote. Every hipster in Ireland has the little grey 'Repeal 8' badge. But can hipsters be relied upon to turn up at the polls the same way 70 year old women can ?
I have seen many hipsters without those badges, they might still vote yes though.
 

edwin

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Donegal will be leading the way in this referendum although you wouldn't know it from our TDs. Pearse and Joe were supposed to be pro life until their party careers depended on it.

Donegal swings 10-15% more conservative than the country on average. Anything below 60% No in Donegal and this vile referendum will pass. Above 65% is a sign of defeat. I'd guess it will be somewhere in between.
 

flavirostris

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If they have a murder of feminazis threatening them a la AOR, then they won't have much choice.

A bit more confident than before Christmas. The sight of all the pro life posters was up lifting.

From a PR point of view, PL are ahead - for the moment. It'll be interesting to see pro-abortion's riposte. It's going to be a difficult sell via sloganeering. The vids they've produced wouldn't look out of place in the Horror section of a video store.
You know I have this feeling that the Irish people are waiting in the long grass, ready to give the political & media establishment the biggest kick up the bollocks in years. It's going to be Trumpian in terms of the sheer devastation on the part of the rotten media set.
 

storybud1

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It's hard to see anything, former Health ministers (both crap at actually doing anything) Meehole and Leo the Spin Doctor have little traction spinning for their careers in Donegal.

There is little SF will do either given the nature of the topic as they lie their asses off as usual that they are not a commie radical left spoof machine posing as nationalists ??

Cannot make head nor tail of it,, if pressed would be 51% NO
 

sadmal

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Repeal definitely has the hipster vote. Every hipster in Ireland has the little grey 'Repeal 8' badge. But can hipsters be relied upon to turn up at the polls the same way 70 year old women can ?
Don't be too sure that the 70 year old woman is an automatic No voter. Don't forget at the time of the '83 vote she was a 36 year old woman maybe with a couple of small children now grown up and she's looking at things from that point of view.

Plenty of women just missed out because they were too young to vote last time out but are determined to make their vote count this time. Also remember there are no nuns now helpfully handing out leaflets outside polling stations.
 

Catalpast

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Repeal definitely has the hipster vote. Every hipster in Ireland has the little grey 'Repeal 8' badge. But can hipsters be relied upon to turn up at the polls the same way 70 year old women can ?
Well the older cohorts have turn outs at the ballot box

- and while there is a good spread of ages on the NO side I think its fair to say that the older you are

- the less likely you will be to vote for Abortion on Demand....
 

sadmal

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Donegal will be leading the way in this referendum although you wouldn't know it from our TDs. Pearse and Joe were supposed to be pro life until their party careers depended on it.

Donegal swings 10-15% more conservative than the country on average. Anything below 60% No in Donegal and this vile referendum will pass. Above 65% is a sign of defeat. I'd guess it will be somewhere in between.
Does Donegal usually have a high or low turnout at referendums compared with general or local elections?
 


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