What will be the "no" margin in DL in the abortion referendum

D

Deleted member 45466

You know I have this feeling that the Irish people are waiting in the long grass, ready to give the political & media establishment the biggest kick up the bollocks in years. It's going to be Trumpian in terms of the sheer devastation on the part of the rotten media set.
Whilst it would be very pleasing to see it play out like that, I think it'll be a lot closer.

I think the public might be unnerved by the thought of handing that much power to a political establishment, they don't appear to trust. Furthermore, like the land, the Irish seem to have a very strong connection with "Bab-eh". Well most of us :)

For me, the decision to go for a full out repeal was a poor one: had the politicians and pro-abortion lobbyists taken an incremental approach, I'd be very confident that pro-abortion would eventually dismantle the 8th in its entirety.
 


Buchaill Dana

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Well the older cohorts have turn outs at the ballot box

- and while there is a good spread of ages on the NO side I think its fair to say that the older you are

- the less likely you will be to vote for Abortion on Demand....
Well abortion on demand isn't what we are voting on, so that point is moot. I think you would be surprised how split the older generation are, its far from no territory.

This will pass, tighter than marriage equality, but the urban centres will steer it through and we will all wonder what the fuss was about.
 
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D

Deleted member 45466

It's hard to see anything, former Health ministers (both crap at actually doing anything) Meehole and Leo the Spin Doctor have little traction spinning for their careers in Donegal.

There is little SF will do either given the nature of the topic as they lie their asses off as usual that they are not a commie radical left spoof machine posing as nationalists ??

Cannot make head nor tail of it,, if pressed would be 51% NO
The FG dithering was a PR disaster.

Martin's opportunism scored a few more points, but his interview wasn't convincing.
 
D

Deleted member 45466

Well abortion on demand isn't what we are voting on, so that point is moot. I tbink you wpuld be surprised how split the older generation are, its far from no territory.

This will pass, tighter than marriage equality, but the urban centres will steer it through and we will all wonder what the fuss was about.
Nice to see that you consider abortion (on demand) to be unworthy of a fuss :)
 

sadmal

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Why surprising?
That she would write for a publication like Alive which is very conservative and not just on the subject of abortion. Have you ever read a copy?

Second that a person who claims to be pro-life would be a member of Sinn Fein. If she really believed in the right to life for all would she be in SF in the first place?
 

Lúidín

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I followed that link to Alive and it really brought me back - to the 1950s.
 

Buchaill Dana

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Nice to see that you consider abortion (on demand) to be unworthy of a fuss :)
We won't have abortion on demand, all of the anti hysteria and lies will be proven to be that, the world will keep turning and lives will be saved. In a years time we will wonder why you all went so mental. Like divorce, marraige equality, tampons and children's rights, you were wrong then and are wrong now.
 
D

Deleted member 45466

We won't have abortion on demand, all of the anti hysteria and lies will be proven to be that, the world will keep turning and lives will be saved. In a years time we will wonder why you all went so mental. Like divorve, marraige equality, tampons and childrends rights, you were wrong then and are wrong now.
lol
 

NativeWildCat

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Definitely not, there are not enough of them. Even a lot of non hipsters in their 20s and 30s do not vote

I don't trust the opinion polls to tell the story

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Nobody seems to be counting the untapped monster vote that has been key in all of the big Western votes in recent years. The one where the ordinary young working class takes their chance to give these pompous and irritating SJW's a good kicking. The cultural marxist horde have energised and mobilized a huge wave of ordinary working class who will be passionate about voting for the first time specifically to stick it to these fringe blue haired weirdo trash when the vote comes up. Not for the first time it will be yet another embarrassing own goal from the desperate cat collectors and waaaankerish gender studies clowns. We are the many, they are the few. They do not speak for us. A lot of us will take great delight in sticking it to these rent a mob 'rse holes.
 

flavirostris

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Safe No constituencies - Donegal, Roscommon-Galway, Sligo-Leitrim, Cavan-Monaghan, Galway East, Longford-Westmeath, Laois, Offaly, West Limerick, Kerry, Cork North West, Cork South West, Cork East, Carlow-Kilkenny, Clare, Tipperary, Mayo

Probable No - Louth, Wexford, Meath West, Kildare South

Tossup - Galway West, Wicklow, Meath East, Kildare North, Limerick East, Waterford, Cork South Central, Dublin North

Probable Yes - Dublin Central, Dublin Bay South, Dublin Bay North, Dublin North West, Dublin Mid West, Dublin West, Dublin South Central, Dublin Rathdown, Dun Laoghaire, Dublin South West, Cork North Central
 
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talkingshop

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The last poll I saw were taken in February - did you see any taken later than that?
Apparently one was referred on Claire Byrne tonight, Yes: 55%, No: 26% and undecided: 19%.

Also the undecideds seem to be verging more towards Yes.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/new-poll-reveals-how-close-12250682

On this basis I couldn't see Yes getting to less than 65%, could even be 68% .

Unless something changes dramatically, but hard to see what that could be.
 


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