What will be the "no" margin in DL in the abortion referendum

Fats_Portnoy

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 27, 2018
Messages
697
Only on the basis it legislated for suicidal ideation. The rest of it should have been codified decades ago.
Yes and abortionistas had decades to suggest clarifying legislation especially when Labour were in government. Mary-Lou McDonalds 'alphabet soup' would have been avoided if Garret the Good and Dick Spring had passed clarifying legislation after the referendum.
 


Socratus O' Pericles

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
32,960
There is an Irish Times IPSOS Poll being discussed on Pat Kenny show on Newstalk.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/irish-times-poll-public-favour-repeal-of-eighth-despite-slip-in-support-1.3467503

Asked if they would vote in favour or against removing the Eighth Amendment, 47 per cent of voters say they will vote Yes, while 28 per cent said they would vote no.
This represents a nine-point drop in support for repeal since January. Crucially however, support for keeping the Eighth Amendment has not benefitted, and in fact dropped marginally by one point.

I thought the No would be making more inroads, on the other hand Don’t knows tend to vote for the status quo.
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
Two key points in there:

Fianna Fáil voters are the most supportive of retaining the amendment (37 per cent), but more of the party’s supporters (39 per cent) favour repeal.
and

Among voters who said they were undecided at this stage, twice as many said they were “leaning towards” repeal (30 per cent of undecideds) as were leaning towards keeping the amendment (15 per cent).
 

petaljam

Moderator
Joined
Nov 23, 2012
Messages
31,658
Yes and abortionistas had decades to suggest clarifying legislation especially when Labour were in government. Mary-Lou McDonalds 'alphabet soup' would have been avoided if Garret the Good and Dick Spring had passed clarifying legislation after the referendum.
How can you clarify "equality"? It's perfectly clear already. Equality except when it doesn't suit is not equality.
The reality is the various "clarifications" since 1983 have all stretched the original concept to breaking point, but as long as the facade is maintained, prolife are happy to go along with that.

But that is all it is, a pretence. A NIMBY law.
 

Emily Davison

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 9, 2013
Messages
31,823
There is an Irish Times IPSOS Poll being discussed on Pat Kenny show on Newstalk.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/irish-times-poll-public-favour-repeal-of-eighth-despite-slip-in-support-1.3467503




I thought the No would be making more inroads, on the other hand Don’t knows tend to vote for the status quo.
Why did you think the No's would be making more inroads? I didn't see them doing anything strong in the campaign to change people to No. Most of them are conservative Catholics despite them trying to hide this but people are not stupid. This is the last stand for them. I even know conservative Catholics who have decided not to vote at all, because of their own daughters and granddaughters.

I have a feeling the Don't Knows won't vote at all. Rather than vote for the status quo they will just stay at home. In any case 2/3's of them are more for Yes. It is the don't knows that pro lifers need to target and persuade.
 

Finbar10

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 3, 2008
Messages
2,646
The IT give a more detailed breakdown and figures for the poll here.

I think both sides should be nervous after seeing this poll. 47:28:20 are the overall YES:NO: DK figures.

On how the 20% of undecideds are leaning, it is indeed 2:1 in favour of YES. However, what that doesn't say is that the majority of those aren't actually leaning either way. The figures are 30% "Leaning towards removing the 8th Amendment", "15% Leaning towards keeping it" and 54% "Not leaning either way". Not quite the same as saying that two-thirds of undecided's are inclined to vote YES.

Core YES is bigger than core NO (has always been the case).
There's an interesting question in the figures: "How open or not are you to possibly changing your mind in the weeks ahead?" and there's an interesting breakdown for YES and NO voters for that.

78% of YES voters are "absolutely never" or "extremely unlikely" to change their minds (with 14% saying "Probably will not change my mind but open to the arguments" and 7% saying "Possibly could change my mind as I will be listening to both sides in the weeks ahead"). That's almost a 37% core vote.

84% of NO voters are "absolutely never" or "extremely unlikely" to change their minds (with 10% and 6% in the less sure camps). That's only a 23.5% core vote.

NO needs far more in the middle to break for retain. People willing to declare for retain aren't increasing. However, there's a big soft middle (even 16-21% of the YES and NO votes aren't entirely solid). IMO it's going to be close and could easily go either way.
 

Catalpast

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
25,560
The IT give a more detailed breakdown and figures for the poll here.

I think both sides should be nervous after seeing this poll. 47:28:20 are the overall YES:NO: DK figures.

On how the 20% of undecideds are leaning, it is indeed 2:1 in favour of YES. However, what that doesn't say is that the majority of those aren't actually leaning either way. The figures are 30% "Leaning towards removing the 8th Amendment", "15% Leaning towards keeping it" and 54% "Not leaning either way". Not quite the same as saying that two-thirds of undecided's are inclined to vote YES.

Core YES is bigger than core NO (has always been the case).
There's an interesting question in the figures: "How open or not are you to possibly changing your mind in the weeks ahead?" and there's an interesting breakdown for YES and NO voters for that.

78% of YES voters are "absolutely never" or "extremely unlikely" to change their minds (with 14% saying "Probably will not change my mind but open to the arguments" and 7% saying "Possibly could change my mind as I will be listening to both sides in the weeks ahead"). That's almost a 37% core vote.

84% of NO voters are "absolutely never" or "extremely unlikely" to change their minds (with 10% and 6% in the less sure camps). That's only a 23.5% core vote.

NO needs far more in the middle to break for retain. People willing to declare for retain aren't increasing. However, there's a big soft middle (even 16-21% of the YES and NO votes aren't entirely solid). IMO it's going to be close and could easily go either way.
47% YES

28% NO

20% NOT SURE

3% WILL NOT VOTE

1% REFUSED

For their figures to be credible there would have to be a 95% + voter turnout

On the basis that there has never been anything like a 95% voter turnout in the History of the State

- I strongly believe that these figures are not credible!
 

Francophile

Active member
Joined
Mar 28, 2013
Messages
235
Very heartened from a NO perspective with this poll. Confirms our experience on the ground. The force is with us! Vote no .
 

Finbar10

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 3, 2008
Messages
2,646
47% YES

28% NO

20% NOT SURE

3% WILL NOT VOTE

1% REFUSED

For their figures to be credible there would have to be a 95% + voter turnout

On the basis that there has never been anything like a 95% voter turnout in the History of the State

- I strongly believe that these figures are not credible!
???
Just because 3% say they definitely won't vote and 1% refused to answer doesn't mean IPSOS MRBI are saying there will be a 95%+ turnout. It's a given that 100% of people won't vote and that turnout pattern within the various subsets will impact on the final result. Some polling companies try to adjust for this (RedC, I think, for their party polls ask questions like how likely are you to vote or did you vote in the last GE and adjust the figures appropriately; perhaps excluding some of the voters least likely to vote). Polls are what they are.
 

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
6,194
Why did you think the No's would be making more inroads? I didn't see them doing anything strong in the campaign to change people to No. Most of them are conservative Catholics despite them trying to hide this but people are not stupid. This is the last stand for them. I even know conservative Catholics who have decided not to vote at all, because of their own daughters and granddaughters.

I have a feeling the Don't Knows won't vote at all. Rather than vote for the status quo they will just stay at home. In any case 2/3's of them are more for Yes. It is the don't knows that pro lifers need to target and persuade.
You are right in that it is their last stand. I doubt they ever thought they would actually have the opportunity to fight a relatively liberal abortion proposal, as opposed to a more restrictive repeal of the 8th. If they lose this, they are really finished.

It's hard to imagine how anyone could still be 'Undecided' on this, and I agree most of them probably just won't vote. Furthermore, the Noes have to win over virtually all of them, or otherwise a substantial chunk of softer 'YES'es.

I am quite heartened by this poll. At the start I was 'budgeting' for a 10% loss of support for YES during the campaign, but even if that happens (which it may not), it probably wouldn't be enough for a NO at this stage. I presume there will be at least one more poll at the weekend.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top