What will be the "no" margin in DL in the abortion referendum

slysnara

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Safe No constituencies - Donegal, Roscommon-Galway, Sligo-Leitrim, Cavan-Monaghan, Galway East, Longford-Westmeath, Laois, Offaly, West Limerick, Kerry, Cork North West, Cork South West, Cork East, Carlow-Kilkenny, Clare, Tipperary, Mayo

Probable No - Louth, Wexford, Meath West, Kildare South

Tossup - Galway West, Wicklow, Meath East, Kildare North, Limerick East, Waterford, Cork South Central

Probable Yes - Dublin Central, Dublin Bay South, Dublin Bay North, Dublin North West, Dublin Mid West, Dublin West, Dublin South Central, Dublin Rathdown, Dun Laoghaire, Dublin South West, Cork North Central
All those tossups will vote yes.

What matters will be of course just how big the margin will be.
 


Catalpast

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Apparently one was referred on Claire Byrne tonight, Yes: 55%, No: 26% and undecided: 19%.

Also the undecideds seem to be verging more towards Yes.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/new-poll-reveals-how-close-12250682

On this basis I couldn't see Yes getting to less than 65%, could even be 68% .

Unless something changes dramatically, but hard to see what that could be.
I take these opinion polls with a grain of salt TBH

But I have never seen such a high and open level of opposition to any Referendum that I can recall...
 

sadmal

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Nobody seems to be counting the untapped monster vote that has been key in all of the big Western votes in recent years. The one where the ordinary young working class takes their chance to give these pompous and irritating SJW's a good kicking. The cultural marxist horde have energised and mobilized a huge wave of ordinary working class who will be passionate about voting for the first time specifically to stick it to these fringe blue haired weirdo trash when the vote comes up. Not for the first time it will be yet another embarrassing own goal from the desperate cat collectors and waaaankerish gender studies clowns. We are the many, they are the few. They do not speak for us. A lot of us will take great delight in sticking it to these rent a mob 'rse holes.
You mean the working class who turned out to put millionaire Trump in the White House or the working class in the UK who turned Tory to vote for Brexit?

In Ireland they tend to vote SF, PBP and Solidarity if it still exists, all of them for Repeal. The only real hope for the No side is FF voters in urban and rural areas and I'm not sure I'd describe them as working class.
 

slysnara

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I take these opinion polls with a grain of salt TBH

But I have never seen such a high and open level of opposition to any Referendum that I can recall...
Claire Byrne show had a poll two weeks before SSM referendum, with 76% in favour and 18% against.

On the day it was 62% in favour and 38% against.
 

NativeWildCat

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You mean the working class who turned out to put millionaire Trump in the White House or the working class in the UK who turned Tory to vote for Brexit?

In Ireland they tend to vote SF, PBP and Solidarity if it still exists, all of them for Repeal. The only real hope for the No side is FF voters in urban and rural areas and I'm not sure I'd describe them as working class.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. You, the new bourgeoisie lecturing the working class because they didn't vote along with you and your middle class chums. That really grinds the working classes gears and no wonder they then go out in their droves and vote for someone that actually passionately fights for crucially important issues at hand, National sovereignty, protecting the local worker rather than garbage like gender pronouns and other gibberish manure.
 

sadmal

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Claire Byrne show had a poll two weeks before SSM referendum, with 76% in favour and 18% against.

On the day it was 62% in favour and 38% against.
Also depends on which company does the polling and how they guess where the undecided vote will go.

Remember the vote to abolish the Seanad? The polls showed a majority in favour of Yes and yet the No side won.
 

flavirostris

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I think the media are deliberately trying to blackpill no voters by producing fake polls showing yes well in the lead. remember the polls showing Clinton with a double digit lead. don't fall for the luegenpresse fake polls.
 

sadmal

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This is exactly what I'm talking about. You, the new bourgeoisie lecturing the working class because they didn't vote along with you and your middle class chums. That really grinds the working classes gears and no wonder they then go out in their droves and vote for someone that actually passionately fights for crucially important issues at hand, National sovereignty, protecting the local worker rather than garbage like gender pronouns and other gibberish manure.
Never make assumptions about anyone without knowing them first. I am working class as were my parents and in-laws. The mistake you make is assuming that all working class people must think the same on every issue and behave in certain ways.

I'd put you in the same class as Paul Murphy and RBB two middle class fools pretending to be working class and 'with the people' when in reality they use them but are careful never to get too close to them.

The original angry young men you are trying to emulate were genuine working class but now are likely to be 'posh' boys just pretending.
 

NativeWildCat

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When you look at young no side you see good honest, healthy righteous people. The sort of people you could count on when in a jam. Then in contrast you look at the abortion maniac side.....


[video=youtube;7LjzhSrFVR0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LjzhSrFVR0&t=13s[/video]

They just look like vile diseased rotters and morally repugnant. Look at them, a bunch of unwashed savages. These new bourgeoisie are lecturing the working class? pffft. You could practically catch an STD just from watching them through youtube. Give them a good kicking. All their nonsense about, gender pronouns and mythical gender pay gaps. This is your chance. Give them a good kicking right into the curb. Vote no.
 
D

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You mean the working class who turned out to put millionaire Trump in the White House or the working class in the UK who turned Tory to vote for Brexit?

In Ireland they tend to vote SF, PBP and Solidarity if it still exists, all of them for Repeal. The only real hope for the No side is FF voters in urban and rural areas and I'm not sure I'd describe them as working class.
The question for me is, why they voted for Trump, and why they voted for Brexit.

Perhaps the media created trope of happy clappy, colgate smile families with their enormous refrigerators (stuffed full of rainbow colored goodies) doesn't reflect the squeeze real working class families in the US and in the UK are feeling?
 
D

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I think the media are deliberately trying to blackpill no voters by producing fake polls showing yes well in the lead. remember the polls showing Clinton with a double digit lead. don't fall for the luegenpresse fake polls.
They'll make every effort to create such a narrative.

People will nearly always go with the herd, or with what they think the herd is going to do.
 

Drogheda445

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All those tossups will vote yes.

What matters will be of course just how big the margin will be.
Have to say I'm only going by what I've noticed but the NO side are far more active and visible in Cork than in Dublin so far; even as an urban area it seems to have a slightly more conservative atmosphere than Dublin would have. It'll probably pass, but it could be very slight.

Also I would say Cork North Central is more likely to vote NO, its a far more rural constituency. Likewise South Central will probably vote YES.
 

sadmal

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When you look at young no side you see good honest, healthy righteous people. The sort of people you could count on when in a jam. Then in contrast you look at the abortion maniac side.....


[video=youtube;7LjzhSrFVR0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LjzhSrFVR0&t=13s[/video]

They just look like vile diseased rotters and morally repugnant. Look at them, a bunch of unwashed savages. These new bourgeoisie are lecturing the working class? pffft. You could practically catch an STD just from watching them through youtube. Give them a good kicking. All their nonsense about, gender pronouns and mythical gender pay gaps. This is your chance. Give them a good kicking right into the curb. Vote no.
Oh such hatred from such a little man - you must have been taking lessons from your rugby playing clums with those texts about women you send each other all the while pretending to such nice boys.

You should be ashamed of yourself and if you were my son i'd clip you around the ear.
 

slysnara

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Have to say I'm only going by what I've noticed but the NO side are far more active and visible in Cork than in Dublin so far; even as an urban area it seems to have a slightly more conservative atmosphere than Dublin would have. It'll probably pass, but it could be very slight.

Also I would say Cork North Central is more likely to vote NO, its a far more rural constituency. Likewise South Central will probably vote YES.
Cork North Central is more working class, and both CNC and CSC voted for SSM at about the same margin. Plus all the CNC TDs are pro-abortion.
 

NativeWildCat

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Oh such hatred from such a little man
I'm quite big actually.

- you must have been taking lessons from your rugby playing clums with those texts about women you send each other all the while pretending to such nice boys.
I'm working class. I don't follow middle class sports.

You should be ashamed of yourself and if you were my son i'd clip you around the ear.
Touched a nerve did it, do you have blue hair and 4 cats perhaps?
 

sadmal

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Have to say I'm only going by what I've noticed but the NO side are far more active and visible in Cork than in Dublin so far; even as an urban area it seems to have a slightly more conservative atmosphere than Dublin would have. It'll probably pass, but it could be very slight.

Also I would say Cork North Central is more likely to vote NO, its a far more rural constituency. Likewise South Central will probably vote YES.
All the posters i've seen in the last week hae been from the No side and that's in the Drumcondra/Beaumont area.

Every second lamppost has a No poster and I have only seen one or two Yes posters in the area.
 

good dog

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When you look at young no side you see good honest, healthy righteous people. The sort of people you could count on when in a jam. Then in contrast you look at the abortion maniac side.....


[video=youtube;7LjzhSrFVR0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LjzhSrFVR0&t=13s[/video]

They just look like vile diseased rotters and morally repugnant. Look at them, a bunch of unwashed savages. These new bourgeoisie are lecturing the working class? pffft. You could practically catch an STD just from watching them through youtube. Give them a good kicking. All their nonsense about, gender pronouns and mythical gender pay gaps. This is your chance. Give them a good kicking right into the curb. Vote no.
The one shouting 'whores need abortion' is a prostitute I think?
 

sadmal

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I'm quite big actually.


I'm working class. I don't follow middle class sports.


Touched a nerve did it, do you have blue hair and 4 cats perhaps?
No but I do have manners, quite possibly because I was reared by decent people who didn't bring us up to hate anyone.

Every post of yours oozes hate towards someone, I'd suggest anger management classes before you actually attack some of the many you hate so much.
 
D

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No but I do have manners, quite possibly because I was reared by decent people who didn't bring us up to hate anyone.

Every post of yours oozes hate towards someone, I'd suggest anger management classes before you actually attack some of the many you hate so much.
So, why do you hate the RCC so much?

Also, you've become increasingly more enraged as we get closer to D-Day.
 

NativeWildCat

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The one shouting 'whores need abortion' is a prostitute I think?
Yeah a bussed in American prossie. A vile creature. Why is she even here? That little trollop needs a good hosing down.
 


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