What would be the effect of another 20% of the electorate voting in the next GE

charley

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At the last elections in 2009(local,lisbon &by-elections) there was roughly about 60% turnout by the electorate, What if circumstances arose where another 20% decided to go out and vote. Could this cause a huge upset in the predicted figures for the 3 main parties?
Would an 80%+ turnout bring big changes?
Elections 2009: Voting ends - RT News
 


firefly123

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I imagine it would mostly be made up of protest voters so not so good for fianna fail.
 

Squire Allworthy

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I would think that the the make up of voting intentions would be much the same as those that do vote.

If you are a political animal I would have thought it better to target those that do vote rather than hope for those that don't to turn up.
 

hiding behind a poster

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An 80% turnout is almost impossible, for a couple of reasons. The first is that no matter how regularly you update the register, people leave the country, and people die. For people leaving the country, removing themselves from the register won't be top of their priorities, and when someone dies its often months before their relatives get around to removing them from the register, which is understandable enough. But all those people are still on the register come polling day.
Then, come polling day, there'll be lots of people who just can't vote. People in hospital, on holidays, out of the country on business, people not in hospital but incapacitated/bedridden in some way, people working or studying the far end of the country from where they're registered to vote, etc etc. As a result, the reality is that a turnout of 80% is virtually impossible, and would in itself represent virtually everyone who was physically able to vote on the day, actually doing so.
 

TonyB

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Could have a significant negative impact on fianna fail vote. If the current situation doesn't change substantially, then I reckon a lot of FF voters will stay home. This is the atavistic lot, Dev's legacy, those whose parents voted FF and have always voted FF. They won't vote Labour, and definitely not FG. Possibly Sinn Fein, but they most probably would abstain. This implies the double whammy - less FF voters coming out, and the 20% increase likely coming from "anyone but FF" means huge volatility, but all away from FF. Dunno where it goes to, though. Independents, local issues, local candidates, kooks...
 

Kevin Doyle

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An 80% turnout is almost impossible, for a couple of reasons. The first is that no matter how regularly you update the register, people leave the country, and people die. For people leaving the country, removing themselves from the register won't be top of their priorities, and when someone dies its often months before their relatives get around to removing them from the register, which is understandable enough. But all those people are still on the register come polling day.
Then, come polling day, there'll be lots of people who just can't vote. People in hospital, on holidays, out of the country on business, people not in hospital but incapacitated/bedridden in some way, people working or studying the far end of the country from where they're registered to vote, etc etc. As a result, the reality is that a turnout of 80% is virtually impossible, and would in itself represent virtually everyone who was physically able to vote on the day, actually doing so.
Holding the elections on a Saturday/Sunday might address some of the problems you've mentioned, would also ease the hassle the day off school causes for many parents.
 

ocoonassa

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I'm usually part of the third of the electorate who are sick to the back teeth of The Party running things and abstain. Next time though I'll either be spoiling the ballot, or voting for the least noxious independent I can find just to try and oust people who voted for the bailout. However all the other people I know who abstain are unlikely to change their behaviour. After all, who is there to vote for that could be any use?
 

oggy

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Wasnt it the French who got an 85% turnout not only once but twice in their last Pres election ?
30% did not vote in 2007 and I cannot see that changing for next election

FF got 850000 votes in 2007 and what happens these come the election is the only thing worth talking about. Polls say FF are going to lose at least 300000 votes and Labour appear to be the main beneficiary.
The ABFF firmly believe FF are heading for destruction and their campaign will be 100% designed to do so. The question here is, will FF be as ruthless in the campaign as the ABFF. FF might have a lot to answer for but the ABFF have a lot to prove.
Simply cannot see an increased turnout but rather a drop of 5%
 

Panopticon

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At the last elections in 2009(local,lisbon &by-elections) there was roughly about 60% turnout by the electorate, What if circumstances arose where another 20% decided to go out and vote. Could this cause a huge upset in the predicted figures for the 3 main parties?
Would an 80%+ turnout bring big changes?
Elections 2009: Voting ends - RT News
They would surely all vote Shinner (rural) or Socialist/PBP (urban).
Positives: Sinn Féin and far left parties are under-represented by PR-STV; they represent ideologies that it's good to accommodate in parliamentary democracy, so their supporters do not become alienated from it.
Negatives: maybe they aren't voting because they don't feel very strongly in favour of their choice, or don't know much about politics. Those are good reasons not to vote.
 

olamp

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I'm usually part of the third of the electorate who are sick to the back teeth of The Party running things and abstain. Next time though I'll either be spoiling the ballot, or voting for the least noxious independent I can find just to try and oust people who voted for the bailout. However all the other people I know who abstain are unlikely to change their behaviour. After all, who is there to vote for that could be any use?
You have no right to complain about anything if you don`t vote. Why on earth would you spoil your vote-what the hell good would that do?
 

charley

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There are lots of 20 year olds currently unemployed who never voted but see the present government as the reason why there's no money to put petrol in the Civic so if a proportion of these people vote it could upset a lot of seat predictions.
 

charley

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Would voting over a 2 day period,say Friday and Saturday make a difference?
 

ocoonassa

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You have no right to complain about anything if you don`t vote. Why on earth would you spoil your vote-what the hell good would that do?
So exactly how do I forfeit my freedom of speech by not participating in a sham? I'll need that pointing out to me I'm afraid.

Spoiled ballots are a time honoured method of voters registering disapproval with the political system under which the ballots are cast. If enough people do it then it calls the credibility of the system into question.
 

SideysGhost

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Would voting over a 2 day period,say Friday and Saturday make a difference?
Of course it would. And that's why it'll never be allowed to happen. It doesn't suit any of the corrupt parasite parties currently infesting and debasing the national parliament.
 

THR

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Denmark, Sweden and Iceland continually get turn-out rates of 85% or more. I think Malta has the highest turnout rate in countries where voting is not compulsory but the very size of the small island-state explains a lot, they really feel like they belong to the same bunch of people.
 

olamp

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So exactly how do I forfeit my freedom of speech by not participating in a sham? I'll need that pointing out to me I'm afraid.

Spoiled ballots are a time honoured method of voters registering disapproval with the political system under which the ballots are cast. If enough people do it then it calls the credibility of the system into question.
A spoiled vote is a wasted vote.
 

Glucose

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At the last elections in 2009(local,lisbon &by-elections) there was roughly about 60% turnout by the electorate, What if circumstances arose where another 20% decided to go out and vote. Could this cause a huge upset in the predicted figures for the 3 main parties?
Would an 80%+ turnout bring big changes?
Elections 2009: Voting ends - RT News
The 60% of registered voters than usually come out to vote is quite high.

Of the 40%,You would be amazed at the amount of people on the electoral register that are dead or that are registired in 2 constituencies but only vote once.
 

ocoonassa

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A spoiled vote is a wasted vote.
A vote cast for obviously bad people makes you personally responsible for enabling whatever evil they do in the world. If you don't agree with the candidates on offer, or the political system they represent, then the only way to register disapproval is by spoiling your ballot. So if your intention is merely to signal disgust and keep your conscience clean it's hardly a waste.
 


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