When will Fianna Fail pull the plug on Cowen & let the Blueshirts sort out the mess?

[Congalltee]

The original theory was a good one. Sit tight to 2012 and hope the economy has improved.
As is obvious to all but the feebleminded optimists, the economy is going to be in an even worse state by then.
- current debt is 85bn, the annual deficit is 20bn and the banks will cost about 90bn.
- as a result we are likely to default. - that means only the IMF or ECB will lend to us.
-That means Croke Park agreement will have to broken leaving 300,000 Voters angry.
- social welfare will have to be cut with workfare along side it, leaving 1m people very angry.
- small schools and hospitals will close.
Ie there is no water for the parish pump = end of Fianna Fail.

The next opportunity to dump Biffo.
-The September think-in. The next poll results will be out.
- install Lenihan as leader for the election. It could save 10-15 seats.
- FF has got the credit for making the tough decisions when they have not yet been taken. - it suited the international markets to have a poster boy for austerity and economic cold showers.
- now let Fine Gael take the really tough decisions ie health cuts, end universal child benefit, close schools, sell off the semi-states, default on the Banking obligations.

Advantages for FF
- it gets out before default.
- it can claim it was a better economic manager.
- the party will fall below 60 seats but will not fall below 40.leaving it in a position to come back after the 2014 local elections just in time for the 1916 Party.

Disadvantages
- it is out of power for at least 18 months until FG and Labours fall out.

 

[charley]

Why do people keep nominating Lenihan for positions he will not be able to fill.His retirement will probably come in his budget speech.

 

[LiberalFG]

Disgusting but true. It would make an awful lot of sense for them to oust Cowen now, which will precipitate a GE which they will lose handsomely and FG/Lab will be left with an impossible mess which will make the past 3 years look like an Elton John birthday bash and we'll probably see the FF cronies basking in their own glory at the 1916 parade whereas FG/Lab will be vilified by the public.

 

[Asparagus]

The original theory was a good one. Sit tight to 2112 and hope the economy has improved.

Well it'll be tight but maybe NAMA will be paid off by then alright.

 

[Congalltee]

Why do people keep nominating Lenihan for positions he will not be able to fill.His retirement will probably come in his budget speech.

An election is just a 3 week campaign, he only needs to be leader for that time and as long as ie can get a medical report saying he has a stable prognosis he can breeze through it . (uber cynical but it is Fianna Fail we are talking about).

 

[smitchy2]

FF will lose so badly in the next election they will need to rely on labour for the next 2 to 3 elections.

It is important to note that such destruction of private wealth has ever happened in the history of this country.

FF will wear the bankers/property around their necks for a generation.

It is important that we ensure this is not forgotten.

FG & Labour will be villified but so will anyone else in government for the next 10 years at least.

 

[showbandmanager]

By 2016 there'll be a few of the head honchos from the IMFand ECB on the reviewing stand in o'connell st.

 

[Oldira1]

The original theory was a good one. Sit tight to 2112 and hope the economy has improved.
As is obvious to all but the feebleminded optimists, the economy is going to be an even worse state by then.
- current debt is 85bn, the annual deficit is 20bn and the banks will cost about 90bn.
- as a result we are likely to default. - that means only the IMF or ECB will lend to us.
-That means Croke Park agreement will have to broken leaving 300,000 Voters angry.
- social welfare will have to be cut with workfare along side it, leaving 1m people very angry.
- small schools and hospitals will close.
Ie there is no water for the parish pump = end of Fianna Fail.

The next opportunity to dump Biffo.
-The September think-in. The next poll results will be out.
- install Lenihan as leader for the election. It could save 10-15 seats.
- FF has got the credit for making the tough decisions when they have not yet been taken. - it suited the international markets to have a poster boy for austerity and economic cold showers.
- now let Fine Gael take the really tough decisions ie health cuts, end universal child benefit, close schools, sell off the semi-states, default on the Banking obligations.

Advantages for FF
- it gets out before default.
- it can claim it was a better economic manager.
- the party will fall below 60 seats but will not fall below 40.leaving it in a position to come back after the 2014 local elections just in time for the 1916 Party.

Disadvantages
- it is out of power for at least 18 months until FG and Labours fall out.

Exactly the plan I heard from a senior Fianna Fail adviser. How are Labour clever enough to scupper this by setting the bar too high for Fine Gael thereby forcing a coalation of the Right Wing parties?

 

[Congalltee]

Exactly the plan I heard from a senior Fianna Fail adviser. How are Labour clever enough to scupper this by setting the bar too high for Fine Gael thereby forcing a coalation of the Right Wing parties?

If Labour had the balls to do that it would be brilliant. However the idea that they would let a term in office go by for their longterm future is just a non-runner (besides Hiding will be along in a while to give 7 non-civil war reasons why a EG-ff coalition of the unwilling is impossible)

 

[Congalltee]

The next few opportunities to bring Cowen/the government down
- the publication of the Dublin Docklands report.
- the budget.
-Before the publication of the Mahon report.
- lowry getting uppity about lack of support after Moriarty report.
- another Green bill on animals.
- before the Greens insist on a corporate donations ban.
- FG grow a pair and stop pairing for Bertie and others.
- unknown unknowns.

 

[dalywise]

By 2016 there'll be a few of the head honchos from the IMFand ECB on the reviewing stand in o'connell st.

By 2016 we won't be able to afford any centenary events but RTE might repeat "Insurrection".

 

[MPB]

By 2016 we won't be able to afford any centenary events but RTE might repeat "Insurrection".

We might just celebrate with a real live repeat.

 

[hiding behind a poster]

Exactly the plan I heard from a senior Fianna Fail adviser. How are Labour clever enough to scupper this by setting the bar too high for Fine Gael thereby forcing a coalation of the Right Wing parties?

Labour can't force anything. FG have said there are no circumstances in which they will form any kind of coalition with FF. In the scenario you're outlining, there would just be a second election immediately, and Labour would be blamed for causing it.

 

[hiding behind a poster]

The next few opportunities to bring Cowen/the government down
- the publication of the Dublin Docklands report.
- the budget.
-Before the publication of the Mahon report.
- lowry getting uppity about lack of support after Moriarty report.
- another Green bill on animals.
- before the Greens insist on a corporate donations ban.
- FG grow a pair and stop pairing for Bertie and others.
- unknown unknowns.

Fine Gael are not providing pairings for Bertie Ahern.

 

[Congalltee]

The next few opportunities to bring Cowen/the government down
- the publication of the Dublin Docklands report.
- the budget.
-Before the publication of the Mahon report.
- lowry getting uppity about lack of support after Moriarty report.
- another Green bill on animals.
- before the Greens insist on a corporate donations ban.
- FG grow a pair and stop pairing for Bertie and others.
- unknown unknowns.

- the by-elections
(the government has a majority of 3, yet it has not lost a vote yet but a FG apologist can claim that there is no pairing arrangement - even an informal one - in place. Few votes get more than 145 TDs in to vote).

 

[FakeViking]

We might just celebrate with a real live repeat.

Alternatively we might invite Queenie over and present her with the keys, and apologise for the mess FF have made of a piece of her empire. :lol:

 

[Aindriu]

We might just celebrate with a real live repeat.

Hopefully we won't have to wait six years for it. We need it NOW!

 

[LDF]

FF have two options really-

-They could offer Cowen up as a sacrifice to sate public anger after budget 2011 is announced or
-They could keep Cowen's career on life support long enough for him to "lead" FF to humiliating defeat in the by-elections/mayoral elections early in 2011. After that they will put him out of his misery.

Either way, a new FF leader (Lenihan or Hanifan) will have to go to the country within a month or two of taking over. I think FF will want to push through Budget 2011 as their only remaining USP is the "tough decisions" nonsense.

 

[Aindriu]

a new FF leader (Lenihan or Hanifan) will have to go to the country within a month or two of taking over.

Lendahand is not well enough (supposedly) to be leader of a children's birthday party let alone a political one. As for Hanifan, do we really want another bloody teacher with no real understanding of the private sector and business in charge of a political party? FFS, haven't the schoolteachers and lawyers in government done enough to wreck the country already?

 

[LDF]

Lendahand is not well enough (supposedly) to be leader of a children's birthday party let alone a political one. As for Hanifan, do we really want another bloody teacher with no real understanding of the private sector and business in charge of a political party? FFS, haven't the schoolteachers and lawyers in government done enough to wreck the country already?

Lenihan looked well enough in Beal na Blath.

Look, the individual who takes over from Cowen will have one mission only - to limit FF seat losses in the pending GE. Ability really doesn't come into it. I don't rate Lenihan but a lot of people seem to do and I think Kenny and Gilmore would struggle to land many blows on Hanifan compared to say Dermot Ahern or Mick Martin.