When will the next general election be held?

Congalltee

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A well known bookie is giving 2/9 for this year and 5/1 for 2018.

My percentage guessestimate probability in brackets
A) immediately as Kenny pulls the plug? (0%)
B) before the summer 1) as FF take advantage of instabilty in FG
2) new FG leader tries to take advantage of bounce
3) FF tied into a corner and forced to end deal? (40%)

C) September/October - FG/FF/Indos unable to agree a budget (30%)
D) Winter election 2017 - government looks at impending disaster of Brexit/trump/eu common tax and decide to leave it to FF to clean up (10%)
E) spring 2018 (15%)
F) rest of 2018 (5%)
G) later? (O%)
 


sic transit

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Spring 2018 was always anf still is the most likely option. No-one is looking for a GE. Summer this year might be an option but once we get to budget time they'll muddle through. FF will honour the deal because it will be part of their campaign. Having had to hand out special pay awards and the HSE being permanently broke and lobbying for billions, will limit the scope to do much of anything anyway.
 

Zapped(CAPITALISMROTS)

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daxxdrake
Would not be surprised to see a May/June election particularly if Leo gets elected leader of F.G
 

commonman

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I said omn here a few week ago. May / June i will still go with that.
 

wombat

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Next spring is my guess. Its not FF or FG that are providing the uncertainty but Lord Ross and his merry men who can walk at any time.
 

ger12

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I dunno. FF are allowing FG time to elect a new leader.

Listening to the Claire Byrne Show today one would get the impression that once a FG leader has been decided, they'll be an election.
 

sport02

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I dunno. FF are allowing FG time to elect a new leader.

Listening to the Claire Byrne Show today one would get the impression that once a FG leader has been decided, they'll be an election.
They'd get a right bollicking from the electorate if they played antics with the FG leadership.
And your post just illustrates how FF have not changed.
 

publicrealm

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May/June.

Allow Enda time to gracefully hand over the reins - (to a female?) - (having put Donald in his place on Patty's Day) and MM suddenly finding a pressing need to go to the Country (in the National Interest)?
 

between the bridges

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Oh goody, ye mexicants are so much fun to watch when ye are in civil war opsh moi means election mode...
 

ger12

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They'd get a right bollicking from the electorate if they played antics with the FG leadership.
And your post just illustrates how FF have not changed.
Why are they doing so? A snap election with Enda leading would be advantageous for FF.
 

ger12

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Oh goody, ye mexicants are so much fun to watch when ye are in civil war opsh moi means election mode...
DUP are in trouble with ye, will they vote for the UUP? I dunno. Your one could be very interesting indeed.
 

Fullforward

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Will a departing Kenny have the balls to tell Trump that he is a bollix?

Will Leo / Simon etc want an Election with all the Brexit stuff going on?

Will FF hide in the background to avoid the hard decisions?

Will the Indos get tired of the stick they get in the constituency during their massive summer Holidays and return to vote down the Budget?

In recent days I was predicting an April / May election, I'm going to stick with that.
 

wombat

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DUP are in trouble with ye, will they vote for the UUP? I dunno. Your one could be very interesting indeed.
No, it will be the usual sectarian headcount
 

Fullforward

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Not to be forgotten in the midst of all of this is the agreed charade being played out by FF/FG to give the impression that they both are the only show in town in the hope that the voters fall for it and we return to the "FF stepped in FG stepped out again" days.
 

sic transit

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Not to be forgotten in the midst of all of this is the agreed charade being played out by FF/FG to give the impression that they both are the only show in town in the hope that the voters fall for it and we return to the "FF stepped in FG stepped out again" days.
They kind of are. No other grouping can come close.
 

venusian

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"When will the next general election be held?"

When BellEnda's boss Michael Martin instructs him to call one!
 


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