Where could the "Recovery" possibly come from?

Cael

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Following on from another thread, I asked this question:

Fractional reserve banking means that, at all times, there is more debt in the world than there is money to pay it - which means that constant economic expansion is required just to keep up the interest repayments, never mind the capital sums. Western capitalism can no longer generate that economic expansion, thus the system is imploding under the weight of debt that the banks have created. This implosion really happened in 1929. Only WW2 generated the expansion that gave the impression of recovery. However, since the collapse of Bretton Woods, and the linking of the dollar to a gold standard in the early 1970s, it has been admitted that capitalism cannot generate growth by "normal" economic means. Thus, we have seen stagflation all through the 1970s, expansion by increasing third world debt in the 1980s, and expansion by the creation of bubbles in the 90s and 00s. What's left? Where can the economic expansion needed to inflate out of this crisis come from? WW3?

Now, Alan Greenspan avoided the fall out from the dot.com crash by lowering interest rates to nearly zero, and creating a property bubble. Now that the property bubble has burst, what could possibly take its place? Politicians are talking about getting people spending again, but spending on what? Are they really putting their hopes on a new property bubble?

Or, could it be that the ruling elites know full well that we are in the endgame for capitalism, and they are trying to be in control of whatever new system emerges?
 


Cael

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I see that nobody is taking up this question. Not surprising. But, if nobody can even imagine what an economic "recovery" might involve, then there is very little chance of such a thing happening.
 

Asparagus

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I see that nobody is taking up this question. Not surprising. But, if nobody can even imagine what an economic "recovery" might involve, then there is very little chance of such a thing happening.
Cael - global recovery is only possible through revolution. We are too mired in debt to devise away out of it in the current regimes.

We need global debt forgiveness and a new world order.

People in power won't arrive to that conclusion so the people at the bleeding edge will.

Its inevitable and approaching crisis point.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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As of now

1. We cannot accept this bailout or all bets are off. The Chicago Boys / Neo Liberals from the IMF will turn this country into a serfdom paradise, asset stripping our resources.

2. Default. Let the banks go. Leave the Euro and EU. New currency and banking system based in Free Banking or Full reserve banking.

3. Set up a direct democracy system like Switerland only more inclusive of people.

4. This country is full of resources, natural, human and land. Convert the inputs into the outputs of goods and services that people actually need.


We are currently a microcosm of whats going to happen to the rest of the world soon. The IMF can't bailout everyone. In fact it has enough to cover 3 other large economies and thats it.

So we might as well follow Icelands cue and be ahead of the curve.
 

Cael

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Certainly, the above two posts make sense. Their basis is that the global capitalist system comes to an end and we form very different types of societies to the one we have now in the West.
 

eoghanacht

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As of now

1. We cannot accept this bailout or all bets are off. The Chicago Boys / Neo Liberals from the IMF will turn this country into a serfdom paradise, asset stripping our resources.

2. Default. Let the banks go. Leave the Euro and EU. New currency and banking system based in Free Banking or Full reserve banking.

3. Set up a direct democracy system like Switerland only more inclusive of people.

4. This country is full of resources, natural, human and land. Convert the inputs into the outputs of goods and services that people actually need.


We are currently a microcosm of whats going to happen to the rest of the world soon. The IMF can't bailout everyone. In fact it has enough to cover 3 other large economies and thats it.

So we might as well follow Icelands cue and be ahead of the curve.


Cass i used to dismiss you as some kind of doom merchant. Given what we know now i know i was wrong and i have nothing to add or remove from your points above. They are all excellant and as far as i can see viable.

However there would have to be something to rally behind to acheive all of the above as none of our current political class have the nerve or the imagination.

Is there such a body?
 

Cael

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Cass i used to dismiss you as some kind of doom merchant. Given what we know now i know i was wrong and i have nothing to add or remove from your points above. They are all excellant and as far as i can see viable.

However there would have to be something to rally behind to acheive all of the above as none of our current political class have the nerve or the imagination.

Is there such a body?
FF\FG\Labour have only one idea - to get global capitalism back to what it was in 2006. This is a delusional fantasy, but they dont dare present any other option, even to themselves.
 

eoghanacht

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Certainly, the above two posts make sense. Their basis is that the global capitalist system comes to an end and we form very different types of societies to the one we have now in the West.
Well how long do you think it'll take to die off?
We need to hasten it, the way things are going there's a sh't storm coming down the tracks. I would hazard a guess and say that they'll kick of a nice war somewhere, better have the plebs slaughtering each other then turning on the elites and wars are good for business
 

arcadeparade

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Cass i used to dismiss you as some kind of doom merchant. Given what we know now i know i was wrong and i have nothing to add or remove from your points above. They are all excellant and as far as i can see viable.

However there would have to be something to rally behind to acheive all of the above as none of our current political class have the nerve or the imagination.

Is there such a body?
Theres a few groups, WSM, Eirigi etc. But theres so much propaganda against socialism that its hard to convince people that the whole system is the problem, not just corruption, greed or incompetence within it.
 

Franzoni

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We need to do something quick whatever we decide to do as a people or we are condemming future generations to slavery...

we need an uprising and soon before FF completely sell us down the swanny

George Osborne and Cameron and the RBS can go f**k themselves...it was nothing but a cash machine for FF lackeys dodgy deals on property.....
 

Asparagus

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FF\FG\Labour have only one idea - to get global capitalism back to what it was in 2006. This is a delusional fantasy, but they dont dare present any other option, even to themselves.
But who is there?
SF - i am starting to warm to them but they don't have the popularity.

Its very hard to rally behind nobody and its very hard to lead noone.
There is a paradox.
 

loaf

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Maybe I'm pessimistic by nature, but I believe war to be more likely than revolution.

Let's face it, war these days does not take place when politics fails, it is the very foundation of politics. The nebulous 'War on Terror' and the global policing that accompany free market globalisation is PART of a dying ideology, but when war becomes a condition for ideology (as opposed to an exception to it) you can assume things will not end happily.
 

Asparagus

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Very good OP Cael.

Capital will be invested wherever the fastest short term growth is to be found. For all we know that could be in war industries.

You are right that WW2 ended the American depression and they came out of it stronger than ever, maybe the same will happen again?
Ah but a war today would be between China and the west - and there is no recovery from that.
Anyway War is how nations change the status quo.
All our nations are desperately trying to preserve it.
 

eoghanacht

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Theres a few groups, WSM, Eirigi etc. But theres so much propaganda against socialism that its hard to convince people that the whole system is the problem, not just corruption, greed or incompetence within it.
but that's it, isn't there an attempt by joe higgins to bring all the disparate left parties under one umbrella and yet you have the SWP or whoever saying they want no part of it if Eírigí are unboard.

Madness. Surely the first thing is to offer an alternative and a credible one at that. Left wing infighting is a right wing wet dream
 

Franzoni

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Theres a few groups, WSM, Eirigi etc. But theres so much propaganda against socialism that its hard to convince people that the whole system is the problem, not just corruption, greed or incompetence within it.
Yep Dev/FF,FG the RCC and the Christian Bros did their job well when it came to posioning the peoples minds about socialism....

Look where their system has led us to......
 

Cael

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Well how long do you think it'll take to die off?
We need to hasten it, the way things are going there's a sh't storm coming down the tracks. I would hazard a guess and say that they'll kick of a nice war somewhere, better have the plebs slaughtering each other then turning on the elites and wars are good for business

Unfortunately, there is not a whole lot we can do to speed things up. Like it or not, we do live in a global world, and this is a global process. As you say, war has been a historical favourite for "solving" economic crisis. Im not sure if people in Europe and America would be willing to die in sufficient numbers to make war effective. Thats a severe problem for those who would think of using war as the instrument of "recovery."
 

slx

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I think Cowen's hoping to walk into his office and find a cheque for €100 billion in his spare jacket.
 

Cael

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but that's it, isn't there an attempt by joe higgins to bring all the disparate left parties under one umbrella and yet you have the SWP or whoever saying they want no part of it if Eírigí are unboard.

Madness. Surely the first thing is to offer an alternative and a credible one at that. Left wing infighting is a right wing wet dream
Problem is that if the "Left" was given power today, Im not convinced that it has any real solution to this economic crash either.
 
B

Boggle

Following on from another thread, I asked this question:

Fractional reserve banking means that, at all times, there is more debt in the world than there is money to pay it - which means that constant economic expansion is required just to keep up the interest repayments, never mind the capital sums. Western capitalism can no longer generate that economic expansion, thus the system is imploding under the weight of debt that the banks have created. This implosion really happened in 1929. Only WW2 generated the expansion that gave the impression of recovery. However, since the collapse of Bretton Woods, and the linking of the dollar to a gold standard in the early 1970s, it has been admitted that capitalism cannot generate growth by "normal" economic means. Thus, we have seen stagflation all through the 1970s, expansion by increasing third world debt in the 1980s, and expansion by the creation of bubbles in the 90s and 00s. What's left? Where can the economic expansion needed to inflate out of this crisis come from? WW3?

Now, Alan Greenspan avoided the fall out from the dot.com crash by lowering interest rates to nearly zero, and creating a property bubble. Now that the property bubble has burst, what could possibly take its place? Politicians are talking about getting people spending again, but spending on what? Are they really putting their hopes on a new property bubble?

Or, could it be that the ruling elites know full well that we are in the endgame for capitalism, and they are trying to be in control of whatever new system emerges?
I'll be shot for saying this but the big problem with our economy is that people are to the pin of their collar meaning they have no money to spend, meaning no jobs and no tax. The only solution I can see is a massive writedown of public debt so that instead of having to spend their money to keep the roof over their heads people could get back to enjoying life.

I know there are questions of moral hazard but, frankly, I don't care. My gf (a teacher) had a kid burst out crying yesterday in class because his mammy can't afford food and they may be losing their home. It's just wrong and I don't care what anybody says because all the begrudgery and pontification in the world doesn't justify this level of suffering.
 


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