Where is the growth to come from

fiannafailure

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The deal is done, the budget will be passed, we will have an election.

Our economic survival depends on growth, what stimulus packages can the new government implement.

The Green Party turned down a 3.5 billion FDI project last month and yet John Gormleys dept have 500 foreshore licence applications stacked up in his department, thats 500 businesses that cannot employ people and pay tax.

Will the new government do better.
 


Squire Allworthy

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With government austerity and everyone paying down debt it is going to be difficult.

Not everyone is cash strapped, but for them to invest they need to see stability and have confidence that they are not investing into Argentina Mark 2.

Need to fast track business related planning applications. They need to be regarded as a national priority. Even if it is something that only employs a few people, for those few people it is critical.

I have known planning application that have taken years to resolve, just not good enough.

Needs an overall all strategy that makes the country attractive to business.
 

Newffowner

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Talked to a pharma exec a couple of months ago, about all the layoffs in the industry around Cork.

He said it's due to patents expiring, so companies go from margins of 80% to margins of 5% over night, his plant alone is expecting to lose €4Bn in sales over the next 18 months, and he reckons the industry will lose €40bn over the next 5 years in revenue.

On face value it stands up, celtic tiger started in the late eighties when these drugs came on stream and now the patents are begining to die.

Problem is no new drugs coming on stream, and if there was would they be manufactured here considering our cost base?

Don't know the effect it has on GDP, but loss of corp tax and income tax would have to be at least a bn if he's right.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Everything is mere rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic until we address the chronic debt situation. With debt levels of 800% of our income, anything that is consumed, invested or indeed saved is leaking away in debt obligations abroad.

It is akin to a bucket with a hole in it. No matter how much water we put into the hole more and more water pours out of the hole.

We need a new bucket with no hole. In other words, we need a debt free currency and a model of gradual savings induced growth.
 

feargach

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No growth is possible in any economy run entirely by zombie banks.

Hate to break it to ya.

I'm perfectly happy to set up a new bank using my own money. I'm perfectly happy to take deposits, and lend money to anyone with strong collateral and proven money-generating potential.

If I were allowed to set up such a bank, I would automatically become Ireland's most-solvent bank. All of the other banks are insolvent by several billion. By the very fact of not being insolvent, I would automatically be Ireland's number one.

I wouldn't need a brown cent from the ECB. Just the licence to issue loans to customers who possess adequate collateral.

But, you'll notice, I'm not allowed to start up such a business. Nobody is.
 

fiannafailure

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No growth is possible in any economy run entirely by zombie banks.

Hate to break it to ya.

I'm perfectly happy to set up a new bank using my own money. I'm perfectly happy to take deposits, and lend money to anyone with strong collateral and proven money-generating potential.

If I were allowed to set up such a bank, I would automatically become Ireland's most-solvent bank. All of the other banks are insolvent by several billion. By the very fact of not being insolvent, I would automatically be Ireland's number one.

I wouldn't need a brown cent from the ECB. Just the licence to issue loans to customers who possess adequate collateral.

But, you'll notice, I'm not allowed to start up such a business. Nobody is.
But, you'll notice, I'm not allowed to start up such a business. Nobody is
Sguire Allworthy


Not everyone is cash strapped, but for them to invest they need to see stability and have confidence that they are not investing into Argentina Mark 2.

Need to fast track business related planning applications. They need to be regarded as a national priority. Even if it is something that only employs a few people, for those few people it is critical.

I have known planning application that have taken years to resolve, just not good enough.

Needs an overall all strategy that makes the country attractive to business.
I mentioned in the OP that the Greens had turned down an FDI project worth €3.5 billion at the cabinet table, that was of course S of I, however that will be back at the cabinet table in the new year, it needs no money just small energy policy changes including a way to profitably export electricity in Irelands electricity market rules.

Question is, have the new government the brains and the balls to get us out of this mess.
 

EvotingMachine0197

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I didn't realise the S of I plans were considered FDI.

As regards growth, usually if a business were to grow, it would need capital input and a strong assets/liabilities ratio. Ireland is stuffed on both of these.
 

fiannafailure

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I didn't realise the S of I plans were considered FDI.

As regards growth, usually if a business were to grow, it would need capital input and a strong assets/liabilities ratio. Ireland is stuffed on both of these.
We can if necessary finance this twice over from foreign pension or sovereign wealth funds and still retain community ownership, we are reasonably intelligent people.

It is a very positive cashflow generating business, provided the Irish SEM and British Betta mechanisms can be fine tuned for profitable exports from Ireland, this can only be done by the Irish Government and that is all that we require from them in order to generate thousands of tax paying jobs.

Still silence though from the people who will govern us in 2011.
 

Albert O'Camus

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There wont be any growth until we get out of this 'bail out' straight jacket. Consumer demand will continue to deteriorate, FDI will dry up due to the continuing uncertainty.
 

McDave

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Unfortunately our economy is going to have to contract until the point where our revenues cover our public services (or are relentlessly trending towards it). Around this point rents and prices should have reached an equilibrium (i.e. realistic levels). If at this point we have relatively vigorous competitive conditions, there will be no real hindrances to economic growth which could be spectacular enough, if coming off a lowish base.

We're probably talking 3-5 years down the road, at best, unless our government really takes the elements conditioning these factors by the scruff of the neck.
 

fiannafailure

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Unfortunately our economy is going to have to contract until the point where our revenues cover our public services (or are relentlessly trending towards it). Around this point rents and prices should have reached an equilibrium (i.e. realistic levels). If at this point we have relatively vigorous competitive conditions, there will be no real hindrances to economic growth which could be spectacular enough, if coming off a lowish base.

We're probably talking 3-5 years down the road, at best, unless our government really takes the elements conditioning these factors by the scruff of the neck.
Or we could simply earn more foreign income using the resources available to us.

Conventional economic theory wont feed my children
 

charley

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Pat,
Will the SofI plan now include an offshore windfarm infrastucture similar to the one Google have invested in off the U.S east coast?
 

fiannafailure

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Pat,
Will the SofI plan now include an offshore windfarm infrastucture similar to the one Google have invested in off the U.S east coast?
Of course, I have explained before that this is a 30 or 40 year project at least, we are supporting and helping to research projects as diverse as wave pumps and wind powered biofuel plants.

The wave pumps can be built in Irish engineering firms such as those located in most towns in Ireland.

When we say we want to build an industry, we mean it, along with tens of thousands of jobs that cannot be exported as the resources on which they depend are in the west of Ireland.

Please read the book Green Gold, the maths are impeccable.
 

Doodah

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Reduction of national oil dependency with a vengence.
1. Catch up with the Scandanavians in this regard, particularly Denmark.
2. Overtake all and become world leader in oil alternative technologies.
4. Patent designs, employ, manufacture and export.
5. Save billions on oil importation.

Technical skills in engineering and design are available here.
Retraining of unemployed construction and industrial professionals can be initiated, hopefully before they all emigrate. Their existing skills and problem-solving skills can adapt to R&D and innovation. Science, engineering and design graduates can be employed. State and private companies have a wealth of experience which can be drawn upon to organise development teams and minimise duplication of research.
It would require huge organisation on a national level involving state, semi-state, educational, research and private bodies, but necessity is the mother of invention.
 
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fiannafailure

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As an example of the kind of thinking required to get us out of our debacle.

Seize the day, harness the sea - The Irish Times - Fri, Nov 26, 2010

“Norway’s industry, with annual sales of almost €2.5 billion, is worth 36 times ours now,” he says. “Worse still, in the five years to 2007, Norwegian production doubled while Ireland’s declined by 35 per cent.

“The difference is largely accounted for by the Norwegian government’s long-term commitment to developing its maritime resources, regardless of short-term ups and downs. Unlike Ireland, which did away with its department of the marine, Norway has its ministry of fisheries and coastal affairs which has a dynamic strategic plan, strong and supportive administration and a long-term commitment to aquaculture as a major national industry,” he says.

“On the other hand, Ireland has no long-term plan, and aquaculture development has been stifled by a somnambulant public administration which has effectively made it almost impossible to get a licence to farm fish,” he says.
 

Doodah

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As an example of the kind of thinking required to get us out of our debacle.

Seize the day, harness the sea - The Irish Times - Fri, Nov 26, 2010
The difference between the Scandanavians and Ireland is the quality of the leadership.
The default mode for Irish politicians is silence and resignation and the public response is emigration.
This time around though, the mortgage trap is such that many skilled professionals have no option but to stay. A strange silver lining.
 

wombat

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It is a very positive cashflow generating business, provided the Irish SEM and British Betta mechanisms can be fine tuned for profitable exports from Ireland, this can only be done by the Irish Government and that is all that we require from them in order to generate thousands of tax paying jobs.
.
Have you been told what the objection is. I was told previously by a member of the energy commitee that the SoI presentation was poor and they failed to convince -maybe the fault is not all on one side
 

fiannafailure

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Have you been told what the objection is. I was told previously by a member of the energy commitee that the SoI presentation was poor and they failed to convince -maybe the fault is not all on one side
Perhaps so, and certainly attempting to get the intricasies of a 40 year project as complicated as ours across in an hour long presentation to a commitee with no engineering or economic knowledge is challenging.

The objection is that it would challenge the viability of our semi states, yeah sure, the OBJECTION WAS ENVIRONMENTAL, just as there are ideology based objections to most of the 700 foreshore licenses piled up in the dept of the Environment.

We could convince two ministers to present it to cabinet, but the ministries required were in the hands of the Greens.

The usual rules must change, the average politician's attitude must change.

For the record, the Minister for Energy was given our over 200 hundred page business plan, prepared by the best investment bankers in the City of London, and he now claims that we were light on financial detail.

There are tens of thousands of jobs at stake here.

I repeat though, political attitudes must change
 


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