Who can turn this poll into seat projections?

GJG

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That's to say, which parties will over- or under-perform their vote in terms of Dáil seats?

1580033321246.png

I'll be along with my own guess when I think about it.


FWIW, if the percents were turned directly into seats, it would be, give or take a rounding error:

FF 43
FG 35
SF 32
GP 16
Lab 10
SD 5
SPBP 2
A 2
Ind 18
 
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Of the Sword

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The thoughts of the two "main parties" failing to secure 50% of the popular vote in this poll makes me giddy with anticipation.
Might help temper the entitlement issues that FG/FF have in relation to power!
 

McTell

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No
As i've heard, martin for teesh, plus a supply and whatever you're havin yourself agreement from FG, all topped off by a few desperate-to-help inds.

The right slogan with a built-in pun would be "staying power".
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
As i've heard, martin for teesh, plus a supply and whatever you're havin yourself agreement from FG, all topped off by a few desperate-to-help inds.

The right slogan with a built-in pun would be "staying power".
Add to the slogan " like a shite stain that just wont wash away":geek:
 

blinding

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As i've heard, martin for teesh, plus a supply and whatever you're havin yourself agreement from FG, all topped off by a few desperate-to-help inds.

The right slogan with a built-in pun would be "staying power".
Do you mean ; “ Staying In Power ! "
 

locke

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On that level, Sinn Féin will underperform, merely by not running enough candidates.

At 20%, a party misses out on about half of 3-seaters and maybe a third of four-seaters.

It should be possible to make up for that by picking up a second seat in a few five-seaters, but they are only doing that in three of the five-seaters.

With their current number of candidates, I reckon on a 20% vote, their number of candidates is capped at 32 and likely a few below that.

Of course, any party on 10% or less will also underperform as the system is rigged against them.
 

McTell

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No
Do you mean ; “ Staying In Power ! "

Mmm, well, y'know, must be something like that.

Continuity. Respectable. Non violent since maybe the 1920s. Or 30s. New teesh from the nearly abroad (cork). Intimate knowledge of the civil service (they're all our cousins). The story writes itself.
 

rockofcashel

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And another homeless man found dead in Temple Bar this morning.. so that's what tomorrows news cycle is going to be about again..
 

GJG

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Here's what I'm thinking, for what it's worth

47 FF
37 FG
30 SF
16 GP
16 Ind etc
6 Lab
5 SPBP
3 SD

People are talking about SF not having enough candidates to take advantage of their poll lead over FG, but there is another point as well. Parties have good vote/seat conversion rates at their usual level of support, because they have the experience to know where to concentrate their resources.

Parties that have a sharp up- or down-tick in their support levels (Labour 1992, FG 2002) tend to have poor conversion rates because, as well as having the wrong number of candidates (Ethne Fitzgerald for Lab in 1992, two full quotas, no running mate, or FG in Dún Laoghaire in 2002, a full quota split between three candidates who all lost) they also don't know where to concentrate their campaigning resources, and may end up campaigning hard where they have no hope of improving their seat outcome, and skipping an adjacent area that would be pushing on an open front door, so to speak.
 

drjimryan2

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lets not forget that the lower working classes who are expressing the support for Sinn Fein/ira simply don't register/vote.....
 

locke

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What I'm sensing is that there is very little middle-class enthusiasm for voting for anyone at this election. So if the working class vote holds up and the middle class declines that alone will be good news for Sinn Féin. I think turnout might be down to 2002 levels, where to an extent the story of FG's collapse was that there supporters just didn't bother voting.
 


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