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who should be the 2nd labour candidate in limerick city


ymmek

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If as suggested by Jan oSullivan and some LABcouncillors in the Limerick Leader tonight that LAB are likely to run a 2nd candidate in Limerick city who should the candidate be and would he or she have a chance of joining Osullivan in the Dail?
 


Limerick Lad

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If as suggested by Jan oSullivan and some LABcouncillors in the Limerick Leader tonight that LAB are likely to run a 2nd candidate in Limerick city who should the candidate be and would he or she have a chance of joining Osullivan in the Dail?
It would be quite a risky strategy, it will more than likely be a three way fight between Jan O'Sullivan, Peter Power and Kieran O'Donnell for the last two seats in the new Limerick City constituency with Willie O'Dea and Michael Noonan virtually guaranteed re-election. The possibility of Labour winning a second seat now that the constituency has been reduced to a four seater are practically nil, a second candidate might split the Labour vote allowing either O'Donnell or Power to pip Jan at the post. At the moment Power would appear to be the TD most likely not to be in the next Dail.
 

cricket

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I think I'll seek entry to a home for the bewildered if O'Dea ever again tops a poll.
 

Limerick Lad

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I think I'll seek entry to a home for the bewildered if O'Dea ever again tops a poll.
Given the current cutbacks there will not be enough mental health beds available for those who are bewildered by O'Dea's continued popularity so you better start making enquiries now to ensure your place when inevitably O'Dea tops the poll.
 

Treatyboy

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If as suggested by Jan oSullivan and some LABcouncillors in the Limerick Leader tonight that LAB are likely to run a 2nd candidate in Limerick city who should the candidate be and would he or she have a chance of joining Osullivan in the Dail?
Well at least now I know what party you are aligned to...

Anyway I dont think Jan would alllow a second candiate, either way what will happen if she has a seat in government (which she will) and instead of opposing every cut despite if it is neccessary, she may now have to make a informed decision and be held accountable (god help us)! The people of Limerick will then see what she is really like.

To be honest since Jim Kemmy has gone and apart from Joe Leddin (I think he is an excellent cllr and maybe a better TD), Labour have been poorly represented in Limerick.
 

ymmek

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Well at least now I know what party you are aligned to...

Anyway I dont think Jan would alllow a second candiate, either way what will happen if she has a seat in government (which she will) and instead of opposing every cut despite if it is neccessary, she may now have to make a informed decision and be held accountable (god help us)! The people of Limerick will then see what she is really like.

To be honest since Jim Kemmy has gone and apart from Joe Leddin (I think he is an excellent cllr and maybe a better TD), Labour have been poorly represented in Limerick.
You did not address the question.We can debate the matters you refer to once we deal with the question i asked.With regard to my political views i think it would be apparent to anyone reading my posts that i would be on the left.
 

TonyBird

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Its a bold move from labour . I guess they are hoping for a backlash against Willie . I wouldnt bank on it tbh . Perhaps Tom Short might grab the 'yoot' vote on top of Jans transfers . Might be worth a punt .
 

dotski_w_

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It would be quite a risky strategy, it will more than likely be a three way fight between Jan O'Sullivan, Peter Power and Kieran O'Donnell for the last two seats in the new Limerick City constituency with Willie O'Dea and Michael Noonan virtually guaranteed re-election. The possibility of Labour winning a second seat now that the constituency has been reduced to a four seater are practically nil, a second candidate might split the Labour vote allowing either O'Donnell or Power to pip Jan at the post. At the moment Power would appear to be the TD most likely not to be in the next Dail.
Labour were a wee bit above their national vote in Limerick East last time out, presumably with 2 candidates they should do as well, or slightly better. That national vote is in and around 30%, (+/-3% depending on which polling company you believe), so they should be able to get slightly above that, with about 7% in SF/GP transfers they'd expect to well among.

FG got a couple of points BELOW their national vote last time out, which would suggest they are also around 30% here.

If LP hold their support generally, and run a half decent candidate they'll pull the second seat on SF/GP transfers. For O'Sullivan to lose her seat as a result of this "risky strategy", the they'd have to be on about half their likely result on current polls.

You might dream of that, I don't know who you support locally, but it's just not credible.
 

realistic1

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If as suggested by Jan oSullivan and some LABcouncillors in the Limerick Leader tonight that LAB are likely to run a 2nd candidate in Limerick city who should the candidate be and would he or she have a chance of joining Osullivan in the Dail?
If they will run a second canditate and succeed it will be a hisorical change in Irish politics. The only way I can see this happening is to have a 10% increase in voter turnout and poaching another 10% from FF and FG. Could this happen?
 

sparkey321

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It would be quite a risky strategy, it will more than likely be a three way fight between Jan O'Sullivan, Peter Power and Kieran O'Donnell for the last two seats in the new Limerick City constituency with Willie O'Dea and Michael Noonan virtually guaranteed re-election. The possibility of Labour winning a second seat now that the constituency has been reduced to a four seater are practically nil, a second candidate might split the Labour vote allowing either O'Donnell or Power to pip Jan at the post. At the moment Power would appear to be the TD most likely not to be in the next Dail.

+1
 

Limerick Lad

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Labour were a wee bit above their national vote in Limerick East last time out, presumably with 2 candidates they should do as well, or slightly better. That national vote is in and around 30%, (+/-3% depending on which polling company you believe), so they should be able to get slightly above that, with about 7% in SF/GP transfers they'd expect to well among.

FG got a couple of points BELOW their national vote last time out, which would suggest they are also around 30% here.

If LP hold their support generally, and run a half decent candidate they'll pull the second seat on SF/GP transfers. For O'Sullivan to lose her seat as a result of this "risky strategy", the they'd have to be on about half their likely result on current polls.

You might dream of that, I don't know who you support locally, but it's just not credible.
The Labour/Green/SF vote would have to double from the last GE in 2007 to get them anywhere near 30% and the possibility of getting a second seat, that is the hypothesis that isn't credible.
The last time Labour attempted a two candidate strategy was in 1992 (Labour's best general election) when Jim Kemmy and Jan O'Sullivan were the candidates and between they managed 23.5% first preference share, still only achieving one seat in the then five seat constituency, far more difficult now that the constituency is a four seater.
Jan isn't even close to the electoral popularity of Jim Kemmy and if she was pushed into 5th or 6th place after the first count due to a strategy of splitting the Labour vote she may not be able to make up the ground required to get the fourth seat.
The 6.8% former PD vote will also be looking for a home and is more likely to drift towards Fine Gael or Fianna Fail than Labour.
 

davehiggz

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Labour were a wee bit above their national vote in Limerick East last time out, presumably with 2 candidates they should do as well, or slightly better. That national vote is in and around 30%, (+/-3% depending on which polling company you believe), so they should be able to get slightly above that, with about 7% in SF/GP transfers they'd expect to well among.

FG got a couple of points BELOW their national vote last time out, which would suggest they are also around 30% here.

If LP hold their support generally, and run a half decent candidate they'll pull the second seat on SF/GP transfers. For O'Sullivan to lose her seat as a result of this "risky strategy", the they'd have to be on about half their likely result on current polls.

You might dream of that, I don't know who you support locally, but it's just not credible.
If they will run a second canditate and succeed it will be a hisorical change in Irish politics. The only way I can see this happening is to have a 10% increase in voter turnout and poaching another 10% from FF and FG. Could this happen?
Fine Gael's local vote in the city was 33% in 2009 while Labour only managed 18%! Surely if anyone is to take a second seat it's Fine Gael? In fact, what you're suggesting is that Fine Gael would lose a seat. The Party is up at least 5% in the polls nationwide from 2007.

Labour will draw many votes away from Fianna Fáil but I doubt that they'll eat into Fine Gael's vote at all. Remember that Jan O'Sullivan is not hugely visible in the media while Noonan and O'Donnell are BOTH Finance Spokesmen for Fine Gael. That's a huge advantage.

You also have to look at the 6.7% that Tim O'Malley received for the PDs in 2007. PD votes have generally drifted back to FG and this should also help Fine Gael hold its two seats.
 

ymmek

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The Labour/Green/SF vote would have to double from the last GE in 2007 to get them anywhere near 30% and the possibility of getting a second seat, that is the hypothesis that isn't credible.
The last time Labour attempted a two candidate strategy was in 1992 (Labour's best general election) when Jim Kemmy and Jan O'Sullivan were the candidates and between they managed 23.5% first preference share, still only achieving one seat in the then five seat constituency, far more difficult now that the constituency is a four seater.
Jan isn't even close to the electoral popularity of Jim Kemmy and if she was pushed into 5th or 6th place after the first count due to a strategy of splitting the Labour vote she may not be able to make up the ground required to get the fourth seat.
The 6.8% former PD vote will also be looking for a home and is more likely to drift towards Fine Gael or Fianna Fail than Labour.
Posters are missing the vital clue to the likely outcome in limerick next time. The redrawn boundary means that Odea loses 4500 votes Power 1000 Odonnell more than 1200 Noonan 1200 Osullivan just 300 As FF are going to suffer a drop despite Odea Power could go.With Noonans profile on the up Odonnell might be vunerable.Labour would only need to come close to the 1992 vote to take the 2nd FG seat and with the polls suggesting a substantial increase for the party thats a possibility.So who is going to be the 2nd LAB td?
 

Maximus Cynicus

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Fine Gael's local vote in the city was 33% in 2009 while Labour only managed 18%! Surely if anyone is to take a second seat it's Fine Gael? In fact, what you're suggesting is that Fine Gael would lose a seat. The Party is up at least 5% in the polls nationwide from 2007.

Labour will draw many votes away from Fianna Fáil but I doubt that they'll eat into Fine Gael's vote at all. Remember that Jan O'Sullivan is not hugely visible in the media while Noonan and O'Donnell are BOTH Finance Spokesmen for Fine Gael. That's a huge advantage.

You also have to look at the 6.7% that Tim O'Malley received for the PDs in 2007. PD votes have generally drifted back to FG and this should also help Fine Gael hold its two seats.
Can't see a 2nd Labour seat here either. FG to maintain Noonan and O'Donnell; Jan O'Sullivan and O'Dea to secure existing seats. Back to Holmes O'Malley Sexton for Power, unless O'Dea retires (or becomes full time SINDO staffer) :rolleyes:
 

ymmek

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What changes are there going to be to the boundaries?
The changes have taken place already the entire county section,doon cappamore hospital kilteelyetc all taken out of the constituency.What left is the city plus the suburbs and murroe and castleconnell.Good for LAB bad for FF FG.
 

jackryan

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The changes have taken place already the entire county section,doon cappamore hospital kilteelyetc all taken out of the constituency.What left is the city plus the suburbs and murroe and castleconnell.Good for LAB bad for FF FG.
Good point The constituency has becaome very urban more positive for Labour still 2 from 4 will be hard!
depends on how O'dea does?
how balanced FG ticket is?
And who Lab's 2nd candidate is?

I think O'Dea will fall considerablely and who knows Power might take FF's only seat Remember back in 87 constant Poll topper Tom O'donnell lost out here to fellow party man Noonan!
The destination of Indo/SF transfer should favour Lab but the FG team are strong and those ex PDers are more likely to go to them!
 

KingKane

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I would rate the chances of SF getting a seat as higher than Labour getting a 2nd at the moment. I suspect the person in pole position to be the 2nd Labour candidate would be Joe Leddin but he might prefer to pass and wait to succeed Jan whenever she stands down in the future.
 

dotski_w_

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The Labour/Green/SF vote would have to double from the last GE in 2007 to get them anywhere near 30% and the possibility of getting a second seat, that is the hypothesis that isn't credible.
Pardon me? Labour are polling either jsut below or just above 3 times their 2007 result (depending on the polling company you believe). if you disbelieve both, that's fine, but to suggest that neither national poll is credible but your gut instinct is beyond question is somewhat delusional....

The last time Labour attempted a two candidate strategy was in 1992 (Labour's best general election) when Jim Kemmy and Jan O'Sullivan were the candidates and between they managed 23.5% first preference share,
Their best to date, laddy. Not sure if they get the newspapers where you live, but LP are currently 28-32% in the polls, compared to 19.5% in that election (polls ranging from 17-20% beforehand, IIRC). 23.5% in that election was 4% above their national support, which in current terms (if that's the reference poitn you want to use) is low to mid 30s for LP. Taking proportionate swing from 2007 instead, they are about half again higher in the polls than they were then, which is also over 30% in FPVs, even ignoring SF & GP transfers.
 
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