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Who will lose out to Spring in Kerry North??


kate1001

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Jan 25, 2009
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I this Ferris will lose out West Limerick would appear to be much stronger FF than SF but will be very tight.
 

Red_93

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Hopefully McElstrim, simply because he's FF. I'm not big on M. Ferris, but at least he's not FF.
 

paullott

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Probably Ferris - West Limerick is strong FF but I see SF has a prominent office in Abbeyfeale and will put in a huge campaign.
 

Boy M5

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Is this thread based on the TV3 poll?
Why should anyone vote for young Arthur. What has he got to offer?
He has the same family name as his uncle & worked for Anglo Irish the bank that's nearly broke the state.
The only merit I can see to him is that he's not a former revolutionary socialist (unlike some in the enlarged Labour Party).
 

flavirostris

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based on these poll figures you'd have to say Ferris will lose out and (sadly ) Tom McEllistrim will hold on
 

chief joseph

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Is this thread based on the TV3 poll?
Why should anyone vote for young Arthur. What has he got to offer?
He has the same family name as his uncle & worked for Anglo Irish the bank that's nearly broke the state.
The only merit I can see to him is that he's not a former revolutionary socialist (unlike some in the enlarged Labour Party).
Once they keep him off the airwaves he will romp home, but the more the public get to know him then he will lose votes,he's more of a tommy mac than uncle dick.
 

Boy M5

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I'm brave enough to predict that it won't be Jimmy Deenihan.

A good TD & a good man.
McEllistrim is a good constituency TD. However, Jimmy is not only that has greater depth & substance. Dare I say that if he was leader of FG instead of the foxy haired nonentity then they'd be way higher in the polls. I know who'd I'd rather have leading & representing Ireland.
 

LgCastell

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if T Ferris runs i think FF will lose out it'd be smart for SF to run her excellent euro campaign young very likable..dad shud step down

what are springs chance here though in realith woth the gale there is there any chance of a lab td in kerry
 

yerra

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T. Ferris will get the run and skate home. Deenihan likewise. It's a pity the Spring dynasty couldn't find someone other than AJ but with very careful handling he will probably sneak it with Deenihan transfers. Tommy Mac will struggle for transfers and also don't be surprised at Senator M Ferris.
 

dotski_w_

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if T Ferris runs i think FF will lose out it'd be smart for SF to run her excellent euro campaign young very likable..dad shud step down

what are springs chance here though in realith woth the gale there is there any chance of a lab td in kerry
at 35% nationally? they'd be odds on in kerry north (about 26% by my reckoning)
 

Kerrygold

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T. Ferris will get the run and skate home. Deenihan likewise. It's a pity the Spring dynasty couldn't find someone other than AJ but with very careful handling he will probably sneak it with Deenihan transfers. Tommy Mac will struggle for transfers and also don't be surprised at Senator M Ferris.
Senator? I don't think so.

And its amazing how people are now suggesting that Spring will skate home with Ferris losing out on the basis of one TV3 poll.

I guess he's used to being written off and I'm sure it'll suit him.
 

realistic1

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Senator? I don't think so.

And its amazing how people are now suggesting that Spring will skate home with Ferris losing out on the basis of one TV3 poll.

I guess he's used to being written off and I'm sure it'll suit him.
Senator? Why not? He would be more acceptable than half of the crowd in there. Wouldnt it be fun to see him brushing shoulders with Eoghan Harris.
 

FrankSpeaks

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A good TD & a good man.
McEllistrim is a good constituency TD. However, Jimmy is not only that has greater depth & substance. Dare I say that if he was leader of FG instead of the foxy haired nonentity then they'd be way higher in the polls. I know who'd I'd rather have leading & representing Ireland.
Hi Jimmy!
 

locke

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On the basis of opinion polls, it would seem that Deenihan and Spring will come in with comfortable surpluses, with McEllistrim and Ferris close enough on percentage of vote.

So where do the transfers go?

Interestingly, the last time out the FG transfers broke FF: 655, SF: 601. And that's with FF having an extra candidate. With them being considerably less transfer-friendly this time out, I'd see SF taking more of the FG transfers, never mind the Labour ones, so I'd have to give it to Ferris.

But a note of caution, I fear that a lot of the Labour support is anti-FF, anti-FG. In constituencies where there is a credible option from outside the main three parties, I'm not sure the boost will be as much.
 

thebig C

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On the basis of opinion polls, it would seem that Deenihan and Spring will come in with comfortable surpluses, with McEllistrim and Ferris close enough on percentage of vote.

So where do the transfers go?

Interestingly, the last time out the FG transfers broke FF: 655, SF: 601. And that's with FF having an extra candidate. With them being considerably less transfer-friendly this time out, I'd see SF taking more of the FG transfers, never mind the Labour ones, so I'd have to give it to Ferris.

But a note of caution, I fear that a lot of the Labour support is anti-FF, anti-FG. In constituencies where there is a credible option from outside the main three parties, I'm not sure the boost will be as much.
Wow, I am surprised that SF got such a high proportion of the FG transfers. Was there a geographic factor involved? Do Deenihan and Ferris share the same stomping ground?
 
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