Who will replace Enda Kenny in June 07?

hiding behind a poster

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Gladstone said:
[
Yes they did well in 1999 and meltdown in 2002 don't translate locals to natioanals, Jeez cop yourself on, for crying out loud...and look at the facts.

They have also NEVER been re-elected and have only ONCE even came close to the strength of FF, and have never held still for long to keep to one idology and the general gap between their administrations is 20 years, that is failure if ever there was a discription of it.

A better comparison to make would be 1977-81 - FG lost big-style in 1977 partly because they ran a lousy campaign, but largely thanks to a bag of FF promises that subsequently were reneged upon - sound familiar? Under a new leader, and with a more professional approach and better candidate selection, a recovery got under way in the 1979 local and euro elections. One of the chief successes of the local elections was the election of many ambitious and bright young councillors, who thus had a platform to challenge for Dail seats in the next general election - sound familiar? Also in 1979, FF were thrashed by FG in a by-election in Cork, in a constituency where FF traditionally held the upper hand - sound familiar? And then came FG's big breakthrough in the 1981 general election, where substantial seat gains put the party into government. Still, if you want to ignore all that, fire away - suits Fine Gael all the better if you do. :lol:
 


Rocky

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Gladstone said:
FG are not getting into govt in 2007 even their most successful leader admits that, nor do they deserve it, I'll never forget the cringe inducing debate between Dukes and O'dea in 2002 when they could not tell us what the diffrence between the two of them was.

They have also NEVER been re-elected and have only ONCE even came close to the strength of FF, and have never held still for long to keep to one idology and the general gap between their administrations is10- 20 years, that is failure if ever there was a discription of it.
I think most people would agree that Garrett's piece in the Village wasn't great and shouldn't be taken too seriously. Both FG and FF have changed quite a lot since 2002 already and FG were really bad shape back then so I wouldn't worry about that much more. Also I have doubts about the accuracy of your claims there and I didn't see the program myself.

So I think it's a long way to go to the election and it could very easily swing either way. Either way I do think it’s going to be very close.
 

Gladstone

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hiding behind a poster said:
Gladstone said:
[
Yes they did well in 1999 and meltdown in 2002 don't translate locals to natioanals, Jeez cop yourself on, for crying out loud...and look at the facts.

They have also NEVER been re-elected and have only ONCE even came close to the strength of FF, and have never held still for long to keep to one idology and the general gap between their administrations is 20 years, that is failure if ever there was a discription of it.

A better comparison to make would be 1977-81 - FG lost big-style in 1977 partly because they ran a lousy campaign, but largely thanks to a bag of FF promises that subsequently were reneged upon - sound familiar? Under a new leader, and with a more professional approach and better candidate selection, a recovery got under way in the 1979 local and euro elections. One of the chief successes of the local elections was the election of many ambitious and bright young councillors, who thus had a platform to challenge for Dail seats in the next general election - sound familiar? Also in 1979, FF were thrashed by FG in a by-election in Cork, in a constituency where FF traditionally held the upper hand - sound familiar? And then came FG's big breakthrough in the 1981 general election, where substantial seat gains put the party into government. Still, if you want to ignore all that, fire away - suits Fine Gael all the better if you do. :lol:
:D :D :D :D :D

It's like deja vu!

Fine Gael, blundering blindly. (FF are crap ya know...they don't like them)
 

green

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pder said:
LowIQ said:
JCSkinner said:
PD - Inla-style bloodbath leading to no more party and a load of disgruntled individuals.
They're certainly gruntled now. It won't take much to put them over the edge.
Are you Barry W in disguise? :roll:
I actually think the PDs may go straight down the toilet as soon as they lose government.

Parlon only joined because they were likely to re-enter government after 2002, Fiona O'Malley is only a member 'cos of her da, Grealish is only there 'cos of O'Malley and God only knows what Mae Sexton has been up to over the last 3 years.
Liz O'Donnell is a throwback to the near-social democratic PDs of 1987. Michael Brennan only joined so he'd get to run for the Dáil.

The only real rightists in the Dáil party are Harney and McDowell (maybe Tim O'Malley), and it should be fun watching the party strive for meaning after the next election. (Of course, pundits have been saying this for 20 years and it still hasn't happened - we live in hope...)
 

DOD

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pder said:
LowIQ said:
JCSkinner said:
PD - Inla-style bloodbath leading to no more party and a load of disgruntled individuals.
They're certainly gruntled now. It won't take much to put them over the edge.
Are you Barry W in disguise? :roll:
That's a good chant actually. "Are you Barry? Are you Barry? Are you Barry in disguise? Are you Barry in Disguise?"
 
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In fairness if he doesn't win the election he will have to go, Bertie, Pat and Trevor are in the same boat. If Bertie hadn't won in '97 he would have been shafted long ago.
I sincerely doubt that Trevor will be ousted if the Greens don't win the election.[/quote]

I agree, but it depends on your interpretation of 'win'. 4+ seats and he'll be able to stay.

Of course, he may not want to. It's a hard job and he may think that 5+ years for our first leader could be too long, and could leave. Which begs the question-who will replace him?

As for the original topic, your whole thinking is wrong. What if FG get 50+ seats, but Labour perform badly. Will Kenny have to resign because Pat was a bad leader?
 

commentator

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His only hope is a house price deflation. Barring that he may gain half a dozen seats. Bertie will be taoiseach after next election either with PDs or a post rabbitte Labour many of whose members do not share rabbitte's pathological hatred of FF. Being impossible to place on the political spectrum - which is true of both FF and FG -only works if a party has the populist touch of an FF which Fine Gall don't have.
 

hiding behind a poster

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commentator said:
His only hope is a house price deflation. Barring that he may gain half a dozen seats. Bertie will be taoiseach after next election either with PDs or a post rabbitte Labour many of whose members do not share rabbitte's pathological hatred of FF. Being impossible to place on the political spectrum - which is true of both FF and FG -only works if a party has the populist touch of an FF which Fine Gall don't have.

Almost every word of that post is rubbish. Even the most rabid anti-Fine Gaelers on this site don't say that FG "may gain half a dozen seats", as we all know, regardless of party affiliation, that they'll do considerably better than that.
 

TKwhiskers

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hiding behind a poster said:
Almost every word of that post is rubbish. Even the most rabid anti-Fine Gaelers on this site don't say that FG "may gain half a dozen seats", as we all know, regardless of party affiliation, that they'll do considerably better than that.
I think they'll take at least half a dozen seats from Labour, but I cant see them being able to form a government.

To answer the original question - Eddie Hobbs (South Kildare) would make an interesting leader of Fine Gael.

He might even be able to produce a costed program for Government.
 

BarryW

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TKwhiskers said:
He might even be able to produce a costed program for Government.
I see your back to your old trolling tactic tonight: raking up 2-month old threads to try to paper overthe fact that FG/LAbour are on the up.

What a sadcase! :D
 

BarryW

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TKwhiskers said:
Have you any facts to support this?
Well, the 5% rise in the last MRBI opinion poll, for one.
(Please refer to my "sadcase" comments above)
 

Biffo

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TKwhiskers said:
To answer the original question - Eddie Hobbs (South Kildare) would make an interesting leader of Fine Gael.

He might even be able to produce a costed program for Government.
I wouldn't be so sure about that.
 

BarryW

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TKwhiskers said:
What was the margin of error?
No doubt you're going to tell us that the margin of error is 13%, and that FF are actually on 45% and on course for an overall majority.

Wait a second - you ARE Micheál Martin!! :eek: :D
 

TKwhiskers

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jjcarroll said:
Generally speaking, it would be +/-3, so it shoudl read 2-8%, but for simplicity sake they take what I think is called the median. Generally Irish opinion polls' median grossly underestimates the FG vote.
Yeah I noticed FG complaining about that before last General Election too!!! :lol:
 

hiding behind a poster

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TKwhiskers said:
jjcarroll said:
Generally speaking, it would be +/-3, so it shoudl read 2-8%, but for simplicity sake they take what I think is called the median. Generally Irish opinion polls' median grossly underestimates the FG vote.
Yeah I noticed FG complaining about that before last General Election too!!! :lol:

And they were correct - even in the 2002 disaster, the final polls had FG at around 19-20%, and they polled 22.5%. Now I'mnot trying to say that was a triumph, but it does show that even then, polls were underestimating the FG vote (though not by enough, sadly!!)
 

aodh_rua

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TKwhiskers said:
hiding behind a poster said:
Almost every word of that post is rubbish. Even the most rabid anti-Fine Gaelers on this site don't say that FG "may gain half a dozen seats", as we all know, regardless of party affiliation, that they'll do considerably better than that.
I think they'll take at least half a dozen seats from Labour, but I cant see them being able to form a government.

To answer the original question - Eddie Hobbs (South Kildare) would make an interesting leader of Fine Gael.

He might even be able to produce a costed program for Government.
On behalf of the Kildare South FG Executive - Eddie Hobbs has not been approached to put himself before a convention nor will he be asked. Fianna Fáil's attempts to smear Eddie by spreading a rumour that he's a political pawn of Fine Gael are nonsense and I don't think the people are swallowing it. In any case, when he was on with Ryan Tubbridy yesterday he pretty much implied that if was to run for a party it would be Fianna Fáil.
 


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