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Who will take the seats in Cork East?


daithi(ff)

Member
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Messages
42
here is my opinion

o keeffe ff
stanton fg
aherne ff
sherlock lab
just knocking out bradford fg
the rest will only be picking up the scraps:D
 

Jack Lynch

Member
Joined
May 5, 2007
Messages
27
No particular order;

Sean Sherlock
Paul Bradford
Michael Ahern
Ned O'Keeffe

Although I would pay good money for Mr. O'Keeffe not to get in. Doubt I'd have enough moeny for Bertie's tastes though
 

RoundyMooney

Member
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
30
Have you an hour to spare?

Just a couple of concerns:

1. His lamentable failure and inaction on employment within his constituency,

2. His laughable proposal of a two tier drink driving limit,

3. His assertion that the movie franchise "Babe" was damaging to pig farmers, and his call on Irish patrons to boycott the movie,

4. His feeding of meat and bonemeal products to his pigs, and his refusal to disclose his interest in this regard.

I could go on.

The man is a bad joke and should return to his agricultural background and bother the electorate no more.

Then again, when he'll in all likelihood top the poll in Cork East, why wouldn't he stand for another handy five years in the Dail?
 

The Trinity Politick

Active member
Joined
Sep 30, 2006
Messages
248
who will take the seates in cork east
I wouldn't vote for FF in Cork if thats how kids from there spell
 

eastcorklocal

Member
Joined
Feb 14, 2007
Messages
38
thanks for that trinity poli........ that snobish comment might have lost your candidate a number one
 

The Red Rose of Cork

Active member
Joined
Apr 20, 2007
Messages
100
NedO is fine but Ahern is suffering because of the Incinerator and Amgen. Best of Mulvihill iremonger and McLellan will take seat along with NedO, Stanton, and Bradford
 

Eirenua

Active member
Joined
Jan 7, 2007
Messages
280
The Red Rose of Cork said:
NedO is fine but Ahern is suffering because of the Incinerator and Amgen. Best of Mulvihill iremonger and McLellan will take seat along with NedO, Stanton, and Bradford
On what figures are you basing your predictions?
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,090
Iremonger hasn't a hope.

McLellan will surprise a few people with how well she'll poll. She may outpoll Mulvihill, however, she'll fail to take a seat.

The geographical factors will keep Ahern safe and it'll be either FF2 FG1 Lab1 or FF2 FG2. If FF were to have a disasterous election on a national basis (<=35%) and Mulvihill were to outpoll McLellan, he could just end up under pressure, but that's about it.
 

Getoutandvote

Member
Joined
Jan 9, 2007
Messages
15
Keefe
Sherlock
Stanton
Ahern


I am not so sure Sherlock and Bradford will be fighting for last seat. Word is Sherlock is going to Poll Very well in North cork increasing the 4500 labour got the last time.

Keefe coould be back too and I think Sherlock will mop these up too.

Any thoughts??
 

The Red Rose of Cork

Active member
Joined
Apr 20, 2007
Messages
100
Eirenua said:
The Red Rose of Cork said:
NedO is fine but Ahern is suffering because of the Incinerator and Amgen. Best of Mulvihill iremonger and McLellan will take seat along with NedO, Stanton, and Bradford
On what figures are you basing your predictions?
Lab/SF votes from 2004 locals versus the FF vote (I know Ahern was'nt on the ballot paper but his brother was). FF votes in the three town council elections in the south were also dreadful. If anything the vote has slipped further if national trends are observed.
 

Eirenua

Active member
Joined
Jan 7, 2007
Messages
280
Can you really see Aherne being elected? It would be a huge disappointment for me if he were to be elected. I hope you are wrong, please be wrong, you have to be wrong. Oh God no, please let Getoutandvote be wrong.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,090
Getoutandvote said:
I am not so sure Sherlock and Bradford will be fighting for last seat. Word is Sherlock is going to Poll Very well in North cork increasing the 4500 labour got the last time.

Keefe coould be back too and I think Sherlock will mop these up too.

Any thoughts??
Well, he took over 3,000 votes in the Mallow area alone in the last local authority elections and quite improbably turned Labour into the largest party on Mallow Town Council, so he certainly has vote pulling ability.

The major issue in Cork East has always been that it is effectively two two-seaters rather than a four seater. In the northern part of the constituency, I can't see O'Keeffe in trouble and in the eastern part, I can't see Stanton in trouble. That's pretty much why I said Ahern would be elected; I can't see anyone else from the eastern part offering a real challenge.

It would probably be more democratic if areas of Cork North Central were transferred in to create a three seat Cork East constituency, but that's for another election.
 

The Red Rose of Cork

Active member
Joined
Apr 20, 2007
Messages
100
locke said:
Well, he took over 3,000 votes in the Mallow area alone in the last local authority elections and quite improbably turned Labour into the largest party on Mallow Town Council, so he certainly has vote pulling ability.

The major issue in Cork East has always been that it is effectively two two-seaters rather than a four seater. In the northern part of the constituency, I can't see O'Keeffe in trouble and in the eastern part, I can't see Stanton in trouble. That's pretty much why I said Ahern would be elected; I can't see anyone else from the eastern part offering a real challenge.

It would probably be more democratic if areas of Cork North Central were transferred in to create a three seat Cork East constituency, but that's for another election.
Could well see Mallow going into N-W making it a 4 seater and Glounthaune going fully into East allied to the housing explosion in Carrigtwohill keeping it a 4 seater
 

Eirenua

Active member
Joined
Jan 7, 2007
Messages
280
The Red Rose of Cork said:
Eirenua said:
[quote="The Red Rose of Cork":10r8vz3i]NedO is fine but Ahern is suffering because of the Incinerator and Amgen. Best of Mulvihill iremonger and McLellan will take seat along with NedO, Stanton, and Bradford
On what figures are you basing your predictions?
Lab/SF votes from 2004 locals versus the FF vote (I know Ahern was'nt on the ballot paper but his brother was). FF votes in the three town council elections in the south were also dreadful. If anything the vote has slipped further if national trends are observed.[/quote:10r8vz3i]

You are basing you predictions on local election figures against a general election to come up with a prediction that mulvihill will gain a seat? if you look at the last GE figures you will see that Bradford out polled Mullivhill by 2,250 first preference votes. That is alot of votes to make up.
 

The Red Rose of Cork

Active member
Joined
Apr 20, 2007
Messages
100
Eirenua said:
The Red Rose of Cork said:
Eirenua said:
[quote="The Red Rose of Cork":17zw9u6t]NedO is fine but Ahern is suffering because of the Incinerator and Amgen. Best of Mulvihill iremonger and McLellan will take seat along with NedO, Stanton, and Bradford
On what figures are you basing your predictions?
Lab/SF votes from 2004 locals versus the FF vote (I know Ahern was'nt on the ballot paper but his brother was). FF votes in the three town council elections in the south were also dreadful. If anything the vote has slipped further if national trends are observed.
You are basing you predictions on local election figures against a general election to come up with a prediction that mulvihill will gain a seat? if you look at the last GE figures you will see that Bradford out polled Mullivhill by 2,250 first preference votes. That is alot of votes to make up.[/quote:17zw9u6t]

But Mulvihill outpolled joe sherlock on 1st prefs and this time has the green transfers coming out of cobh plus a better chance than Sean of picking up the SF transfers
 
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