• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

Who would've won the civil war in 1914/15?


IrishWelshCelt

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 13, 2012
Messages
2,664
In 1912 with the treat of home rule about to be introduced the Ulster Volunteers were set up in opposition to home rule and numbered around 100,000 men. They later imported 20,000 rifes and 3 million rounds of ammunition. In the south the Irish Volunteers were set up and while they numbered more in terms of around 150,000-200,000 they only at the outbreak of WW1 had were badly unequipped for a war.

Had WW1 not broken out it is quite likely war between the two factions would have broken out over the introduction of home rule. With the Curragh mutiny indicating that many British soldiers would have refused to implement home rule, what exactly would have happened? Would the army have sided with the UV in a war against the IV or merely kept out of the situation altogether? Could we potentially be living in a 32 county republic had war broken out and the IV won?
 

IrishWelshCelt

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 13, 2012
Messages
2,664
Nobody?
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
52,097
No question the UVF because it was armed to the teeth and had the British army on its side. A military coup in London or the King dismissing the govt was also a real possibility. He reportedly threatened to veto All-Ireland Home Rule if the Unionists wouldn't go along with it.

Ironically after Southern independence, George V regretted that the original Home Rule Bill of Gladstone had not come into force, as it might have forestalled it.
 

InsideImDancing

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2011
Messages
21,961
The UV were set-up to resist a democratic decision by the British Parliament, it was a British problem and their Army would have had to deal with it, Curragh mutiny or not.

There was never going to be a conflict between these two factions, or the UV and the Brits.

What would have happened is essentially what did happen, the Brits would have fkd over democracy and the Irish people, the Irish people would have rebelled.

Plus ├ža change.
 

InsideImDancing

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2011
Messages
21,961
Hypothetically speaking, just to answer your question, who knows who would have won had it been left to these two groups.

The suggestion that the Loyalists would have romped home is a bit naive to say the least, I'd suggest people would have joined up in big numbers from both sides, with the Irish side having a much bigger pool to chose from. Assuming the Brits did not get involved (which would never have happened imo).

If it did kick off like that I'd say a compromise would have been reached pretty sharpish. A fair few thousand have died since then and I don't think it would have been much higher overall in the given scenario.
 

InsideImDancing

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2011
Messages
21,961

Eddie C

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 6, 2012
Messages
338
It's news to me about a 'Civil war' during that era, c1915. There was no such thing.
The war stopped the Home Rule but let me (briefly) surmise that maybe the British saw some grounds for some kind of North v South civil war on the island circa that era but then again the war abroad was going to occupy most (all?) of their attention.
The problems as I see them arose where the British never almost never basically stood up to those unionists on the island and we're still left with the problems, one hundred years later.
Would those guys up north 1912-15 have grinned and bore it while left in a united island and then a generation now left who'd have forgotten about British UK rule - we dont know.

And who was the last UK Prime Minister who did stand up to Ulster Unionists?
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
45,597
In 1912 with the treat of home rule about to be introduced the Ulster Volunteers were set up in opposition to home rule and numbered around 100,000 men. They later imported 20,000 rifes and 3 million rounds of ammunition. In the south the Irish Volunteers were set up and while they numbered more in terms of around 150,000-200,000 they only at the outbreak of WW1 had were badly unequipped for a war.

Had WW1 not broken out it is quite likely war between the two factions would have broken out over the introduction of home rule. With the Curragh mutiny indicating that many British soldiers would have refused to implement home rule, what exactly would have happened? Would the army have sided with the UV in a war against the IV or merely kept out of the situation altogether? Could we potentially be living in a 32 county republic had war broken out and the IV won?
There might have been some skirmishing, but I do not think full-scale civil war would have broken out.

There was a compromise whereby the North (maybe 4 counties, not sure of 6) would have been allowed a temporary exclusion for 10 years.

But they would not have a Parliament of their own, and with the South within both the UK and with a functioning government, it would have been hard for the Unionists to resist over the longer term.
 
Top