Why are our "partners" letting us sink?

the_rebubblican

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The recent shows of Tonight with Vincent Browne (Tues 23rd and Wed 24th) have shown that if we continue with this "bailout" (or punitive loan) Ireland will surely default or else will need a debt restructuring deal. The most we can hope for is servicing the deal for three years when a lot of this aid will have to be rolled over by going to the market. Then we'll face the inevitable calamity that awaits us.

If experts like Paul Sommerville, David Mc Williams, Brian Lucey, Morgan Kelly and Peter Matthews know that we are going down because of the banks and have done so for some time then you can rest assured that Cowen and Lenihan also know it. They are creating an elaborate poison chalice for the next government to save their own reputation or as much of it as they can. If you can assume that they know it then the ECB, EU and IMF also know it. So why are they not being straight or facilitating a debt restructuring deal for the country?

Are we pawns in a bigger problem that is being kicked down the road? Is Merkel desperate to get Ireland off the radar long enough to get re-elected?
Why hasn't the Eurozone faced up to the issue of debt? When the ECB sees Germany once again pulling the EU economy back to growth rates will rise within the next three years then we'll have a domestic mortgage crisis.

Why is Ireland being shafted by its leaders and partners?
 


Tea Party Patriot

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The entire Eurozone is under pressure from the debt crisis. Spain, Portugal and Greece will shortly be following Ireland.

The ECB is currently throwing money at a black hole in order to prop up the Euro via a failed banking system. There were two options available, 1. Let the bad banks fail or 2. Quantative Easing, what we are witnessing is the start of option number 2, better known in lay mans terms as Mugabe economics.

By this time next year the Euro may well be gone as a currency, if it is still around its spending power could well be on the way to being in the region of 50% less as the ECB prints money to cancel out debt.

However I fancy the Euro to go as the German inbuilt fear of inflation begins to surface.
 

the_rebubblican

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In the meantime we'll have sucked billions out of the economy, poured billions into the banking black hole have burdened our country with debt levels that will depress the economy for a decade and will have destroyed our capacity to manage our finances. Is this leadership?

What has been said to Cowen and Lenihan to pursue this suicidal path? It's time to say no and call Germany's bluff.
 

Aindriu

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Welcome to the Weimar Republic act 2.
 

Simon.D

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In the meantime we'll have sucked billions out of the economy, poured billions into the banking black hole have burdened our country with debt levels that will depress the economy for a decade and will have destroyed our capacity to manage our finances. Is this leadership?

What has been said to Cowen and Lenihan to pursue this suicidal path? It's time to say no and call Germany's bluff.
I think it's more the question, what has germany said to us? Fine Gael / Labour seem to hold the exact same position as Fianna Fáil, which leads me to believe there some scheming afoot... We know we can't pay off this debt, but a theory going round at the moment is that it's we're taking it on in an attempt to buy the EU time to plan for the coming EU wide banking collapse, and subsequent uber-default... The big banks in the EU are like massive anglo's, who lent absolutely wrecklessly for the past decade, and are creaking now and teetering on the verge of crushing the whole eurozone.. So default is on the cards in the near future, they just want it to be as unchaotic as possible, though I'm not sure if they can engineer this luxury..
 

the_rebubblican

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So default is on the cards in the near future, they just want it to be as unchaotic as possible, though I'm not sure if they can engineer this luxury..
This sounds quite plausible, the problem is we are sacrificing our living standards, growth prospects and citizens welfare for a future promise that basically buys time in the markets.

We have the sovereign right to say no. Michael Noonan hinted in Prime Time last night that he's struggling to understand why Ireland is being peddled such a sore deal.

We are being played for chumps. Think about that, a Eurozone country is being played for market fodder.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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The entire Eurozone is under pressure from the debt crisis. Spain, Portugal and Greece will shortly be following Ireland.

The ECB is currently throwing money at a black hole in order to prop up the Euro via a failed banking system. There were two options available, 1. Let the bad banks fail or 2. Quantative Easing, what we are witnessing is the start of option number 2, better known in lay mans terms as Mugabe economics.

By this time next year the Euro may well be gone as a currency, if it is still around its spending power could well be on the way to being in the region of 50% less as the ECB prints money to cancel out debt.

However I fancy the Euro to go as the German inbuilt fear of inflation begins to surface.
+1

Weber hints at QE to boost the $1 Trillion EFSF, even though 10% has yet to be used.

Goes to show that amount was all a bluff to stop the flawed and imaginary global financial system from collapsing. A monetary system based on confidence?

The last person who could create commodities out of thin air apparantly lived 2,000 years ago and that was only a couple of extreme panic measures such as at a wedding to satisfy angry punters when the wine ran out. Must have been a Irish contingent there.
 

EvotingMachine0197

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The entire Eurozone is under pressure from the debt crisis. Spain, Portugal and Greece will shortly be following Ireland.

The ECB is currently throwing money at a black hole in order to prop up the Euro via a failed banking system. There were two options available, 1. Let the bad banks fail or 2. Quantative Easing, what we are witnessing is the start of option number 2, better known in lay mans terms as Mugabe economics.

By this time next year the Euro may well be gone as a currency, if it is still around its spending power could well be on the way to being in the region of 50% less as the ECB prints money to cancel out debt.

However I fancy the Euro to go as the German inbuilt fear of inflation begins to surface.
I thought the whole point of QE was to intentionally create inflation, thereby deflating the debt in the process ?
 

MPB

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The recent shows of Tonight with Vincent Browne (Tues 23rd and Wed 24th) have shown that if we continue with this "bailout" (or punitive loan) Ireland will surely default or else will need a debt restructuring deal. The most we can hope for is servicing the deal for three years when a lot of this aid will have to be rolled over by going to the market. Then we'll face the inevitable calamity that awaits us.

If experts like Paul Sommerville, David Mc Williams, Brian Lucey, Morgan Kelly and Peter Matthews know that we are going down because of the banks and have done so for some time then you can rest assured that Cowen and Lenihan also know it. They are creating an elaborate poison chalice for the next government to save their own reputation or as much of it as they can. If you can assume that they know it then the ECB, EU and IMF also know it. So why are they not being straight or facilitating a debt restructuring deal for the country?

Are we pawns in a bigger problem that is being kicked down the road? Is Merkel desperate to get Ireland off the radar long enough to get re-elected?
Why hasn't the Eurozone faced up to the issue of debt? When the ECB sees Germany once again pulling the EU economy back to growth rates will rise within the next three years then we'll have a domestic mortgage crisis.

Why is Ireland being shafted by its leaders and partners?
We are the heart of Europe. Without us they are nothing. There is no way they would rip the heart out of Europe.:rolleyes:
 

Tea Party Patriot

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I thought the whole point of QE was to intentionally create inflation, thereby deflating the debt in the process ?
It is, but the level is going to be on such a scale that the currency will become completely eroded in the process.

They are already finding this in America where QE has failed to bump economic growth but the dollar is weakening.
 

McDave

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The way I see it, those who are putting up the cash are trying to ensure it'll go as far as it can. If PIGS can be put under pressure to reduce their budget imbalances, it makes the stability fund stretch further, and increases the prospects of repayment.

So far Ireland is a special case with its disastrous policy towards the banks which has eaten up huge amounts of money intended for sovereign debt. We've soaked up far more than we should have, hence the UK, Sweden, Denmark and Norway offering to move in with bilateral loans. If we take up these loans, that frees up more of the EU/IMF fund for dealing with Portugal, and inevitably Spain.

In a sense, they're not letting us sink. They're making us face up to our debts (which left to our own devices, we'd probably be much more half-hearted about). The main problem for us is we (effectively FF acting on our behalf) have insisted in tagging Anglo and INBS onto it. How the Eurozone will ultimately deal with this problem if similar stories emerge in Portugal or Spain is another question.
 

the_rebubblican

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The way I see it, those who are putting up the cash are trying to ensure it'll go as far as it can.
The thing is, by going along with this deal and seeing how far "it'll go" we'll end up decimating the economy, having a mortgage crash and setting this country back for a decade at least. Is that a price worth paying rather than taking the nucelar option and forcing Europe to deal with bank restructuring now?
 

McDave

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The thing is, by going along with this deal and seeing how far "it'll go" we'll end up decimating the economy, having a mortgage crash and setting this country back for a decade at least. Is that a price worth paying rather than taking the nucelar option and forcing Europe to deal with bank restructuring now?
Ireland can try and force the pace. However, I don't think Irish policy makers are in possession of the full facts. And any decision we take to push the red button could be counterproductive.

Our only card is our commitment to underwrite all our banks. If we can ringfence the amounts that we are on the hook for for speculative lending to and by Anglo/INBS, we have a quantum we can present to the ECB as not being strictly our problem. There could be relief there.
 

MPB

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We have already let FF make decisions on our behalf with the Blanket Bank guarantee and the lack of action there after with regard to Bank insolvency legislation, that were on a par with the charge of the light brigade.

To accept this deal on terms other than 0% for the Bank portion of the loans and above 4% for the deficit portion would be a repeat of these monumental mistakes.
 

McDave

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Another Farage spoof...

Sad day when I have to agree with UKIP, but judging by their faces, most of the Eurocrats know it's true:

YouTube - Euro has crashed
So Farage is now an expert on the Eurozone? Another opportunist video diatribe from one of the EP's leading attention seekers. What a sap. In all this, UKIP is one source you can safely ignore.
 

Franzoni

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Welcome to the Weimar Republic act 2.
And we all know how that finished up.....we are certainly heading in that direction.....

I've heard quotes on interest repayments of between 12 and 20 billion and that is simply uinsustainable for a country with a population of under 5 million people...

Default....paying for FF's idealology is far too expensive...
 


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