Why independents prefer Republicans, a new poll

CookieMonster

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It's not a phenomenon restricted to politics.ie, which is more a symptom then the cause, whereby commentators seem to disregard actual evidence of things looking bad for the Democrats in the upcoming elections, preferring to deal in more fluid things like hopes, beliefs and feelings rather than, well... reality.

Despite countless polls showing a number of unpalatable opinions which don't support what one may wish to believe we get fluffy nonsense and spin. More spinning than the test lab at a washing machine factory.

Alas, despite all this, the bad news keeps coming, be it in special elections where the unthinkable happened to the upcoming elections in November where the GOP are in a position to take back the House and, if the sun shines, the Senate too.

The latest comes from the, soon to be Relublican biased, Associated Press-GfK Poll.

  • Independents prefer Republican candidates 52 percent to 36 percent for Democrats.
  • Among likely voters this gap grows to 62 (+10) percent for Republican candidstes to 29 (-7) percent for Democrat Candidates.
  • Only one third say the country is moving in the right direction
  • Despite three quarters of independents polled being unhappy with Congress now, only one third say they want the Democrats in control of Congress next year
  • 58 percent of independents and 60 percent of Republicans said politics is making them angry. Only 31 percent of Democrats said the same. A similar line is followed on feeling/sentiments such as disguested disappointed, depressed and frustrated.


Independents' dismal views of the country's direction and their negative ratings of the president and Congress mirror the midterm elections in 2006 when President George W. Bush was in office and the GOP controlled Congress, as measured by an AP-Ipsos Poll that September. That suggests the gloomy mood that swept Republicans from congressional control that year could work against Democrats this fall.
Why independents prefer Republicans, a new poll - CSMonitor.com

The poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Sept. 8-13, using landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 randomly chosen adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for adults and 6.4 percentage points for independents.
 


farnaby

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It's not a phenomenon restricted to politics.ie, which is more a symptom then the cause, whereby commentators seem to disregard actual evidence of things looking bad for the Democrats in the upcoming elections, preferring to deal in more fluid things like hopes, beliefs and feelings rather than, well... reality.

Despite countless polls showing a number of unpalatable opinions which don't support what one may wish to believe we get fluffy nonsense and spin. More spinning than the test lab at a washing machine factory.

.....

58 percent of independents and 60 percent of Republicans said politics is making them angry. Only 31 percent of Democrats said the same. A similar line is followed on feeling/sentiments such as disguested disappointed, depressed and frustrated.
So, a poll comes out documenting the feelings of independent voters... and you use it to berate those who base their political predictions on... feelings...

Don't get me wrong, I believe the democrats are in for a thrashing and it's well deserved - though differ from you in believing they're the lesser of two evils. But reading your post and the link I don't get a tangible sense of why independents prefer Republicans in terms of policy - just their attitudes.
 

Goober

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Sadly, I think (as was the case in 2008) the mainstream media will again try to become the “October Surprise” in hopes of saving the Democratic party in the election – at even more cost to what's left of their journalistic integrity. :(
 

CookieMonster

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So, a poll comes out documenting the feelings of independent voters... and you use it to berate those who base their political predictions on... feelings...

Indeed I do quote polling on feelings... but it's actual data rather than made up feelings about feelings which generally was is passed off on p.ie.

Don't get me wrong, I believe the democrats are in for a thrashing and it's well deserved - though differ from you in believing they're the lesser of two evils. But reading your post and the link I don't get a tangible sense of why independents prefer Republicans in terms of policy - just their attitudes.
I saw comment in a thread here dismissing Rasmussen polls as having a republican bias... a lot of the difference in Rasmussen's polls compared to others is that he polls "likely voters". This becomes more important in issues like this, and I have included one above, because these are, as the name suggests, independents who are likely to vote... and while they are unhappy with both sides they are a lot more unhappy with Democrats and more likely to vote Republican to punish them.
 

smitchy2

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Democrats have been in charge on the Senate and House since 2006.
They will be taken deserved medicine in November.

Some of the spending there is comparable to the unholy amount of spending that went on over here during the “boom” years.
 

CookieMonster

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Sadly, I think (as was the case in 2008) the mainstream media will again try to become the “October Surprise” in hopes of saving the Democratic party in the election – at even more cost to what's left of their journalistic integrity. :(
Well certainly the White House strategy was that the "benefits" of Obam's healthcare "reform" would be rolled out on the run up to November 2nd... but despite their "Obamacare saved my life" efforts the effects on people are being noticed in pockets and in lower levels of care across the country. It could backfire badly.

CANNON: Six months later
 

Daragh McDowell

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The problem with everything you write here CookieMonster is that 'Independents' as an actual voting block in the USA do not functionally exist. 90% of self-described independents in reality vote as either partisan Republicans or partisan Democrats. The remaining 10% do bounce around, but also show an extremely low level of knowledge of current affairs and politics. Ceteris Paribus, elections in the US are largely decided by a) the economy, b) cyclical trends (voters get '8 year itch' and it is hard for any party to hold the WH for more than two terms. Presidents almost always see their party take big losses during the first mid-term election.)

As for Rasmussen - plenty of other pollsters use likely voter screens as well. Rasmussen does show a remarkable Republican lean comparable to other pollsters. In fact if you filter him out of the composites of polls on the generic ballot it goes from a 2 point GOP advantage overall, to a slight Democratic edge overall. He is also the only pollster who has recorded positive favourability ratings for Sarah Palin. This does not mean necessarily that he is WRONG, just that his methodology is significantly more Republican friendly than everyone elses. We won't know until November.

Smitchy - Dems have indeed had both houses of Congress since the end of 2006. But they've only had the Presidency, and thus the ability to avoid presidential vetoes since 2009. I'd also point you in the direction of something called the 'filibuster' and how the GOP has been able to maintain the fiscal status quo simply by gumming up the Senate schedule.

OK - back to work!
 

Goober

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Watch for some big time fireworks tomorrow morning with the Civil Rights Commission. Looks like US Attorney General Eric Holder and the Department of Justice are about to get their arses handed to them over their dropping of a voter-intimidation case (that they had already won) regarding the New Black Panthers and the 2008 election.

Looks like career attorney Christopher Coates will now comply with a previous court order and testify tomorrow morning. I guess if he wants to testify, he must have something pretty important to say.

Wondering who will be thrown under the bus in order to save face at the Obama administration? Eric Holder maybe?

And it’s only September. Too early for the October Surprise.

http://pajamasmedia.com/files/2010/09/Coates_Letter_Offering_to_testify_9-22-10_REVII.pdf

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/23/uh-oh-doj-lawyer-to-testify-tomorrow-on-voter-intimidation-case-dismissal/
 
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Daragh McDowell

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Oh FFS Goober. For those that don't know, the case Goober is talking about is two yahoos at ONE polling station in Philadelphia during the 2008 election, who succeeded in intimidating a grand total of zero people. Now the Republicans are keen to gin up this case of 'massive voter intimidation' for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with racial politics I'm sure, but any reasonable fair-minded person can see that expending the finite resources of the DOJ to go after a minor nuisance is OTT and a waste of time. The fact that Goober links to far-right extremist sites in the US to back up his claim is telling.
 

Goober

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Daragh, they were the first I saw that reported on it. Will this site be more acceptable to you:
Former Justice attorney to testify on New Black Panther Party decision - CNN.com

And do you think Bartle Bull is a far right plant? He didn't think it was a bunch of nothing.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoEpySrLYxs"]YouTube - O'Reilly Interviews Bartle Bull Eric Holder Drops Black Panther Charges[/ame]

And if memory serves me right, wasn't it just 2 yahoos who broke into the Watergate hotel back in the 1970's?
 
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Daragh McDowell

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Goober - yes. Into the suite of the DNC to plant/remove bugging equipment. This was two guys affiliated with no-one standing outside a polling station looking menacing (read: black.) How in holy hell could that have affected the election?

I never debated that anyone was going to testify on this - I said that it was utter nonsense. The DOJ decided not to press forward with an investigation into what was, at best, a minor nuisance during the election. It is now being used as an election issue by the GOP, obviously for its racist appeal.
 

Goober

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The real issue is not the New Black Panthers, but possible wrongdoing by our Department of Justice under the Obama Administration.
 

imokyrok

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What nonsense goober. The DOJ would be far better of investigating the strategy adopted by republicans of removing thousands of voters from the register in districts likely to vote democrat than wasting time on prosecuting two guys for standing in front of a polling station wearing black. If that was a crime I'd have been arrested myself every time I go to the polls. Black suits me.
 

Goober

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I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow, to see if it's just nonsense, won't we? As far as I know, these commissions are made up of both political parties.
 

CookieMonster

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Thread NOT about the Black Panthers, BTW.
 

valamhic

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Amazing how independents don't like the direction Trump is taking them. Yet they will support him As a gambler, I note the disaster of Kavanaugh but I also suspect the Republicans have something up their sleeve to release in late October.

At present the GOP have a slight lead on both houses. But it is slight
 


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