Why???



geraghd

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
474
Well Labour let us down last time...
 

BarryW

Active member
Joined
Sep 8, 2003
Messages
262
No simple answers to that question.....

Generally speaking though FG will always be involved in a Coalition, and coalitions will always be more difficult to re-elect than single party FF governments, or FF+ PDs/Independents

But here we go anyway:

The Inter Party governments of the 40's and 50's were always going to be difficult to re-elect, considering the splintered nature of the anti-FF half of the Dail. It was pot luck really.
However, its worth noting that FG support increased substantially in 1951, even though they lost power. Ther same thing happened in 1997.

Cosgrave's government failed to be re-elected due to the serious political miscalculation of the timing of the election. Oh, and the small matter of FF buying the election, which the voters spent the next 15 years paying for.

Fitzgeralds first government (June '81-Feb. '82) failed to be re-elected due to the vagries of the electoral system.
The FG vote increased, (which showed public approval for Bruton's budget, contrary to the urban legends) but we lost seats.
The FG vote again increased in November '82.

The exit from power in 1987 was a done deal. Relations with Labour had all but ceased, and th PDs were doing enormous damage.

The Rainbow lost power for a couple of reasons:
1) Labour ****ed up, and were repaid in kind for their treachery in 1993.
2) There was a concrete alternative on offer (take note all you traitorous anti-Rabbitte zealots)
3) The outgoing Government had a good, but not great, campaign. Fine Gael seemed to lose on the PR battle on the Crime issue- which seems perverse now, as violent crime had fallen by nearly a fifth during Nora Owen's time at Justice.
4) Labour also made a balls of the timing of the election. They wanted to go early (in June, as was the case) whereas (anecdotally at least) the FG leadership wanted to wait until closer to the expiration of the term in October/November. FG were proved right.

1997 is the agreed to be the election that the Rainbow should have won.
John Bruton had very high opinion ratings, whereas his opponent was perceived as being a weak leader with a poor grasp of the issues. You will remember that Bruton thrashed Ahern in the televised debate that week (as Noonan would do 5 years later), which was incidentally the highest TAM ratings for an RTE political/current affairs ever.
There was unprecedented economic growth and job creation; falling crime; and a Government facing the electorate as a united force.
But it wasn't to be.

Interestingly: FG support increased substantially in 1997, as it had in 1951, and in February 82.
Suggesting that the public wanted FG in government, but wither because of the electoral system, or public dislike for Labour, it just didn't happen
 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,998
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
Or maybe the public considered them all to be stone cold useless :wink:
 

BarryW

Active member
Joined
Sep 8, 2003
Messages
262
rockofcashel said:
Or maybe the public considered them all to be stone cold useless
Maybe your selective eyes didn't read my reference to John Bruton's high approval ratings, and the successes of FG when exiting government in 51, 57, 81 and 1997.

nd yet, all I hear is Blah Blah Blah.......
 

DOD

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 25, 2003
Messages
642
Look basically, Fianna Fáil are the quintessential Government party, but ever so often the people get bored with them and vote your crowd in. Then they go back to normal. It's not rocket science.
 

padraig

Active member
Joined
Apr 4, 2004
Messages
208
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
Gladstone said:
has no FG led government ever been re-elected?
Because no FG goverment has ever done anything to make the Irish people want to re-elect them, and plenty of reasons not to re-elect them.

It's simple really.
 

BarryW

Active member
Joined
Sep 8, 2003
Messages
262
padraig said:
Gladstone said:
has no FG led government ever been re-elected?
Because no FG goverment has ever done anything to make the Irish people want to re-elect them, and plenty of reasons not to re-elect them.

It's simple really.
Sigh........such brilliant analysis. :roll:

See my first post.
 

padraig

Active member
Joined
Apr 4, 2004
Messages
208
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
BarryW said:
padraig said:
Gladstone said:
has no FG led government ever been re-elected?
Because no FG goverment has ever done anything to make the Irish people want to re-elect them, and plenty of reasons not to re-elect them.

It's simple really.
Sigh........such brilliant analysis. :roll:

See my first post.
BarryW, why write Half a page, when three short lines says the same thing :D
 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,998
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
BarryW said:
rockofcashel said:
Or maybe the public considered them all to be stone cold useless
Maybe your selective eyes didn't read my reference to John Bruton's high approval ratings, and the successes of FG when exiting government in 51, 57, 81 and 1997.

nd yet, all I hear is Blah Blah Blah.......
]

First of all Barry, it was just a flippant comment I made cause I couldn't be arsed thinking about it on a friday evening, especially as I was getting ready to head off to Tommy Tiernan. I also said it because I knew it would ellicit exactly the reponse from you that it did.

Childish? Yes. Mea Culpa. But I was in a giddy mood, Tommy and all that you know.

Of course I read your post, and its very reasoned analysis regarding Brutal. However, for all your praise of John the Great you still didn't answer the substantive issue, that being how come they couldn't get re-elected.

Unfortunately, I have to defer to the time honoured answer. Because of electoral pacts between FG and Labour, Labour voters who tend to have little problem with FG, just tend to cut out the middleman and go straight to FG, while those in Labour who have a problem with FG, tend to abondon Labour altogether.

Thats why Labour seems to let you down each time there is a pact, and probably the reason why they will let you down again.

Its simple mathematics really. We have 43 consituencies in the next election.

To win a majority in this, FG will probably have to win 2 seats in 15 or 16 of the 4 seaters, along with 2 seats in many of the five seaters.

While the five seaters are possible, if improbable in many, DSC, DL ect, they would need to up their first preference vote to around 33 - 34% first preference in the 4 seaters. Even on the very good performamces they had in the LE last year, they still only managed 29% of the first preference vote.

So to up their game, they need an extra 5%. History tends to show, that any such gain would be made at the expense of Labour, and once again the Labour leg of the coalition will let you down.

FG will most likely up their seats to the high 40's, maybe even on a good day, the low 50's. However, with Labour once again in the low 20's, and possibly only the high teens, I think that the FG/Lab coalition will be about 10-12 seats short. Even the Greens won't be able to make that up, and if you look at the last IMS poll, a FG/Lab/Grn/Ind coalition is even less favoured than a FF/SF one.

probably increasing their seats by 50% or more, will be heralded by FG as a resounding success no doubt, but Labour will be fried, and most likely will vow never to enter a pact with FG again.

FG, with no chance of imroving or entering Govt in such a scenario will eventually wilt. Labour will always have the FF route to power that FG don't. However in time, Sinn Fein sans the IRA will overtake the Labour Party, but maybe become the leading player in a centerist/FF, leftish/SF led reconstruction of Irish politics.
 

Rocky

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 9, 2004
Messages
8,505
First thing Rock the question was 'why has no Fine Gael led government ever been re-elected' not why they will not be in government next time around. Which is what you talk about.

Second thing you go into this long explanation of how Fine Gael will not get elected next time. According to you this is because for FG to get enough seats they will have to take them off Labour and hence the two parties together will still not have enough seats. How do you explain how FG and Labour have got elected before? If your theory is correct this is impossible. Now you might use the theory that now SF and the PDs exist and they didn't in the past and hence they take some necessary seats. It is very possible for FG and Labour to take some seats off SF and the PDs and I believe they will. FG and Labour will of course also take Fianna Fail seats, an example of where this needs to happen is my own area Dublin South West.

FG and Labour have been in government before and hence they can do it again and now FG even have the Greens to help. So because you fail to acknowledge this fact I think your whole analysis is wrong. The situation has not changed that much since 1982 and 1992.

On the original question I think Barry W sums it up perfectly and I don't feel I need to add anything to that.

Finally it good to hear you enjoyed Tommy Tiernan.
 

Gladstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 10, 2005
Messages
420
I've considered your answers.

I think they may get in next time, with the help of either the PDs or independents, or both.

But I don't think they will be re-elected.

When FF are in govt, there is no clear opposition, they are fragmented with weak leaders and conflicting policy, and lack of experience.

When FG are in government, there is a clear block ready to take over, with experience leaders (tho more populism than policy)
 

SEANSOUTH

Member
Joined
Sep 26, 2004
Messages
26
[Second thing you go into this long explanation of how Fine Gael will not get elected next time. According to you this is because for FG to get enough seats they will have to take them off Labour and hence the two parties together will still not have enough seats.


For Fine Gael to obtain seats in the high forthies/low fifties they will have to take some of them from Labour.
 

luckycharmnp

New member
Joined
Mar 20, 2005
Messages
1
I know this may be a simple explanation of FG failure to get re-elected but people dont understand where FG lie on policies.

Why dont FG ever have policy papers put out that clearly state wherre they would stand if they were in power. A perfect example is during budget time. Instead of merley shouting and reacting to the govt. why dont they bring out their own alternative budget proposal and then people will be able to grasp hat they would get if FG were to be in power.
 

The YFGer

New member
Joined
Apr 11, 2005
Messages
2
luckycharmnp said:
Why dont FG ever have policy papers put out that clearly state wherre they would stand if they were in power. A perfect example is during budget time. Instead of merley shouting and reacting to the govt. why dont they bring out their own alternative budget proposal and then people will be able to grasp hat they would get if FG were to be in power.
Now there is a great idea and one that should be acted on for this year, well done lucky
 

geraghd

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
474
I know this may be a simple explanation of FG failure to get re-elected but people dont understand where FG lie on policies.

Why dont FG ever have policy papers put out that clearly state wherre they would stand if they were in power.
Hmm, it would be great if FF would do the same..
Oh but hold on, there are elected with far more seats than FG everytime. So where does that leave your analysis?
 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,998
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
geraghd said:
I know this may be a simple explanation of FG failure to get re-elected but people dont understand where FG lie on policies.

Why dont FG ever have policy papers put out that clearly state wherre they would stand if they were in power.
Hmm, it would be great if FF would do the same..
Oh but hold on, there are elected with far more seats than FG everytime. So where does that leave your analysis?
Come on Ger, dont you realise how lazy an answer that is? Or how little thought is put into it?

As FF are in power for so long, Government policy is FF policy. What Lucky was asking FG to do, is to propose something different to Government policy.

As for Rocky above, I tried to sho why a FG/Lab government will have a problem in the future, and why they havent been re-elected in the past all in one.

The problem is, that when the two parties are very close together, as they are when in government, the elections afterwards tend to see the larger party taking from the smaller one. Thats why FG seem to come out of Coalition government stronger, while Labour dont.

They have gotten into government in the past, when they face the electorate on independent separate platforms, and get mandates as such.

Based on this, it would, in my opinion, be better for Labour to go it alone in the next election, and then after the election, if the numbers are right, seek coalition with FG. Labour voters arent stupid, they know that their preferences for coalition with FG are better, so they don't need to be bounced into a pact to pass on their transfers, but in the case where a pact is their, more left leaning Labour members are likely to abondon Lab.

I mean if FG/Lab think that the Irish people want a pact to give them an alternative Government, why then did they refuse to re-elect FG/Lab the only two times that they formally made it clear that there was a pact in place, i.e. the 1977 election, and the 1997 election.
 

geraghd

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
474
Come on Ger, dont you realise how lazy an answer that is? Or how little thought is put into it?
No there is no realising in it. My point was that in asking FG to stand for something, the same is never asked of FF. govt policy is FF policy does not stand up, as we never know what govt policy is untill they do it. ie PfP, govt policy was different to FF policy.
And I was also highlighting the flaw in his analysis: that FG who are seen not to stand for anything in particular dont get re elected whilst FF who dont stand for anything in particular do get re elected.
 

Gladstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 10, 2005
Messages
420
Ger people realise FF are a centrist (is populist do whatever to get the vote) party, and realise they don't stand for anything, if they did their share of the vote would drop.

FG is saying how bad they are, and wants to take over, not telling us what they would do diffrent
 

BarryW

Active member
Joined
Sep 8, 2003
Messages
262
SEANSOUTH said:
For Fine Gael to obtain seats in the high forthies/low fifties they will have to take some of them from Labour.
Utter nonsense!
For FG to get to the mid-forties plus, these are the target constituencies:

Dun Laoighre
Dublin South East
Dublin North East
Dublin SW
Limerick East
Cork NW
Cork SW
Cork SC
Mayo
Tipp North
Laois Offaly

Of these, only DNE has the possibility of an FG gain from Labour. The latter six have no Labour TD, nor the slightest prospect of one any time soon.

Other FG targets include:
Carlow Kilkenny (no Labour TD)
Limerick West (no Labour TD)
Clare (no Labour TD)
Sligo/Nth Leitrim
and
Roscommon Sth Leitrim (no Labour TDs)
Cavan Monaghan (no Labour TD)
East Galway (no Labour TD)

So lets say that FG have a good election in these areas, and gain a seat in 75% of the ones I've listed.

FG would be up to 45 seats without laying a finger on Labour.

Hence disproving the ridiculous theory that to get above 40 FG will have to do damage to Labour
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top