Wicklow 2020

riker1969

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
2,048
I see Simon Harris being relected for FG
I see John Brady holding his seat for SF
There is obviously at least one FF seat here but which canidate?
The other seats are more difficult to call.
I think it will be indictive of the national outcome that whichever big party can retain two seats here will be in power.
I just can't see both parties FF/FG doing that. I can see the Greens getting a seat here or as an outside bet the SDP.
A large part of Simon Donnelly s vote will go to whitmore (SDP) but how much ?
 


riker1969

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
2,048
Harris will definitely have a seat given the local nature of Irish politics. Him being a minister and all.
 

effer

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2011
Messages
2,402
I reckon Whitmore is in with a good chance. As long as the Greens don't cannibalise her vote. She should do well off the egghead too. First prize would be Harris losing, followed by Donnelly but it seems unlikely to happen. I hear the locals are a bit fed up with Donnelly though.
Donnelly came on the scene as a smart new thinker but then did a complete u turn and joined FF. The people who voted for him in the past and helped make him his name feel betrayed by him and many will strategically vote against him by voting to keep him out.
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 17, 2011
Messages
52,599
I reckon Whitmore is in with a good chance. As long as the Greens don't cannibalise her vote. She should do well off the egghead too. First prize would be Harris losing, followed by Donnelly but it seems unlikely to happen. I hear the locals are a bit fed up with Donnelly though.
I wouldn't like to be depending on transfers if my name began with a W
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 17, 2011
Messages
52,599
Donnelly came on the scene as a smart new thinker but then did a complete u turn and joined FF. The people who voted for him in the past and helped make him his name feel betrayed by him and many will strategically vote against him by voting to keep him out.
I won't be voting for him this time out
 

riker1969

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
2,048
Last edited:
Last edited:
While I think Harris will definitely be re-elected because he is a Minister I think he will be removed from health if they come back. Unless varadker really hates him.
 

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
6,535
LE %'s approx:- FF 22%; FG 26%; SF 8%; Lab 4%; Green 5%; SD 5%; Oths 27%.

Really hard to call this one. Neither FF nor FG can be certain of holding 2 seats, least of all FF's Stephen Donnelly who stands to lose a lot of his original support as an Indo and an SD. If anything FG's 2 seats look more secure - even Health Ministers rarely (never?) lose their seats, and Andrew Doyle did rather better in the Euros than many expected. SF also fared poorly in the locals but they remain the strongest of the left parties here and John Brady should be safe enough.

So after FF 1, FG 2, SF 1, the last seat is probably between Donnelly, the Greens and maybe Donnelly's SD replacement Jennifer Whtmore. Hard to see how either of the latter would have enough, even with excellent transfers from each other and Lab. The only other serious runner is the Indo Joe Behan, an ex-FF TD whose transfers would be more likely to go right than left, presumably.

On balance, FF 2, FG 2, SF 1.
 

riker1969

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
2,048
LE %'s approx:- FF 22%; FG 26%; SF 8%; Lab 4%; Green 5%; SD 5%; Oths 27%.

Really hard to call this one. Neither FF nor FG can be certain of holding 2 seats, least of all FF's Stephen Donnelly who stands to lose a lot of his original support as an Indo and an SD. If anything FG's 2 seats look more secure - even Health Ministers rarely (never?) lose their seats, and Andrew Doyle did rather better in the Euros than many expected. SF also fared poorly in the locals but they remain the strongest of the left parties here and John Brady should be safe enough.

So after FF 1, FG 2, SF 1, the last seat is probably between Donnelly, the Greens and maybe Donnelly's SD replacement Jennifer Whtmore. Hard to see how either of the latter would have enough, even with excellent transfers from each other and Lab. The only other serious runner is the Indo Joe Behan, an ex-FF TD whose transfers would be more likely to go right than left, presumably.

On balance, FF 2, FG 2, SF 1.
Interesting. I would love to see Whitmore take Baldy's seat .SDP is a credible left wing party. Plus given his treachery it would be just revenge.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top Bottom