• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.

Wicklow General Election

mickterry

Well-known member
Joined
May 8, 2009
Messages
1,302
Anyone like to predict where the five seats will go in Wicklow next time around
 


mickterry

Well-known member
Joined
May 8, 2009
Messages
1,302
Age will play a role. Roche, Lady Wicklow and Pat Fitz are all in there sixties as is jimmy Shaug. The real fun will be with FG. Simon sooooooooo wants to play with the big boys he will do anything or anyone to get a seat. FG have no chance of three. My prediction would be 2 FF Casey and Roche, 2 FG Doyle and Billy and Lady Wicklow.
 

Craiced

Active member
Joined
Nov 20, 2007
Messages
299
FF love old politicians. Look at the cabinet reshuffle. Pat Fitz could be a minister yet!
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,122
Age will play a role. Roche, Lady Wicklow and Pat Fitz are all in there sixties as is jimmy Shaug. The real fun will be with FG. Simon sooooooooo wants to play with the big boys he will do anything or anyone to get a seat. FG have no chance of three. My prediction would be 2 FF Casey and Roche, 2 FG Doyle and Billy and Lady Wicklow.
Have to say I find this "Lady Wicklow" crap really tiresome. And it seems to come from people who think that because someone can string two coherent sentences together, they are by definition "posh".

Are you FF by any chance, Mick?
 

mickterry

Well-known member
Joined
May 8, 2009
Messages
1,302
Have to say I find this "Lady Wicklow" crap really tiresome. And it seems to come from people who think that because someone can string two coherent sentences together, they are by definition "posh".

Are you FF by any chance, Mick?
Yes I am. No shame in that either. The term Lady Wicklow is for me a term of endearment. I have always found her to be a nice woman. A little full of herself but nice non the less.
 

mickterry

Well-known member
Joined
May 8, 2009
Messages
1,302
Will Behan stand? I thought he would have had a decent chance of holding on to his seat.
Behan will stand. But if the govt lasts till 2012 he will not hold the seat. after his performance on Frontline it will be no great loss anyway
 

pjoz

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
468
FG 2,FF 1,Lab 1 and between Lab and SF for final seat
 

LgCastell

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
688
Any news on Labour 2nd candidate yet? is there any depth to Labour here or will in be Mcmanus and O shaughnessy? hopefully they can find someone other than the latter
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,474
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
Any news on Labour 2nd candidate yet? is there any depth to Labour here or will in be Mcmanus and O shaughnessy? hopefully they can find someone other than the latter
read somewhere that they were going for a 3-candidate strategy, with Conal Kavanagh being one of them.

If LP poll over 20% nationally they should pull of the second seat here - they were over 16% here last time compared to 10% nationally, and the swing is supposed to be slightly higher in the Greater Dublin - Commuter belt, which means even if they fell back from the current polling of 27-32% to 20%, they should poll about 32% of so here, which is 2 quotas. Even if they did worse, there's transfers from the Greens and SF (who had over 12% between them last time) and OTH (including PBP) who were over 9% (that's not including Behan, btw).
 
B

birthday

Behan will stand. But if the govt lasts till 2012 he will not hold the seat. after his performance on Frontline it will be no great loss anyway
Hopefully he will lose but even if he is returned he will,along with other independents spend the time period 2012-2017 in complete isolation. At least that is how it looks now.
I was also surprised to see some of the names who he accepted political donations from in 2007 and will remind him of this if he darkens my door in 2012.
Last December I recall hearing him tell listeners to local radio what a great deal for the country was about to be agreed between FF and PS unions. Luckily the plug was pulled on this later that day.

I also think last seat between Labour and SF. FG can hardly expect three.

**** will probably be safe for FF.
 

Crannog

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 13, 2010
Messages
324
Labour in 2007 pulled in almost 11000 first preferences in wicklow. Sinn Fein a little over 3000. In the locals last year the labour vote held at just around 11000 for the county while the Sinn fein Vote increased to 4600. If this trend were to continue and SF put on another 2 percent they could well be ahead of the second labour candidate and be in the hunt for the last seat.

Labour needs to get there vote management spot on to deliver 2 seats. The surprise in the next generals in wicklow and other constituencies is labour will be in a fight with SF for the second seat.
 

The Wicklow Patriot

Active member
Joined
Apr 26, 2009
Messages
183
I heard Labour are looking to get Tommy Cullen (West Wicklow) back into the party.
This would mean Lady Wicklow having to swallow her pride and take him back as I believe she was the one that had got rid of him.

They way I see this unfolding is

Lab chiefs will put pressure on McManus to bring a running mate over the line for her to secure a senior ministerial position.

Looking at it I think McManus got 400approx votes from the west last time which is not enough to secure two seats they need to pole well in all these areas.

Mcmanus will run with Conal being her No.2 and they will bring Cullen back in order to mop up votes in the west.

The only other thing is that south Wicklow is being left to Fitzgerald as I heard Nicky Kelly saying about the next general election when asked if he would run “they need me more than I need them”
 
Last edited:

Tomas Mor

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2010
Messages
10,351
Yes I am. No shame in that either. The term Lady Wicklow is for me a term of endearment. I have always found her to be a nice woman. A little full of herself but nice non the less.

I think the term Lady Wicklow is a sort of put down - West Brit etc, not really Irish. I see some other poster is suing it in Sligo NL GE candidates - Lady Sligo, to denigrate Susan O Keeffe who was chosen by labour to contest next election. Forget of course that she exposed beef wrongdoings and was only person who went to jail as a result !
 
Last edited:

Craiced

Active member
Joined
Nov 20, 2007
Messages
299
% left wing vote in Wicklow (combination of Workers Party / Democratic Left, Labour, Green and Sinn Fein and a selective number of independents)

1989 27% (result – 1 LAB seat)
1992 36% (result – 2 seats 1 DL & 1 LAB)
1997 36% (result only 1 seat for DL!) (this is the year Nicky Kelly went as an independent and crucified Labour!)
2002 38% (result only 1 seat for LAB!) (this time Labour shoot themselves in the foot with crazy election strategy! It is genuinely funny to watch them implode.)
2007 29% (result only 1 seat for Labour) (this time Nicky Kelly is damaged goods.BAD, bad selection. If Labour had run a Kavanagh, the name alone would have returned them 2 seats)

Summary: If ever there was a case for an alliance of the left it is in Wicklow. However the combined left in Wicklow couldn't run a bath nevermind an election.

I predict more of the same for 2011/2012. The combined left might have 40% of the vote split between 8 candidates! 3 Labour, 1 IND LAB, 1 SF, 1 GREEN, 1 NUA GREEN, and some other IND. Bitter in-fighting will ensure the vote will not transfer along party lines.

McManus will get in. If SF had someone that could appeal outside Bray they would run it real close. They rest are also rans whos votes will transfer by Wicklow geography and not party lines. Prediction: 1FF 1 IND FF 2 FG 1 LAB
 

Macy

Well-known member
Joined
May 22, 2007
Messages
772
Hopefully he will lose but even if he is returned he will,along with other independents spend the time period 2012-2017 in complete isolation. At least that is how it looks now.
I was also surprised to see some of the names who he accepted political donations from in 2007 and will remind him of this if he darkens my door in 2012.
Given the numbers of developers/ construction related on that list, he could be struggling for funds next time. And, as far as I recall, he's only ever voted against the Government on one issue anyway - not that "independent" as it turns out.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top