Will Donegal burst Gilmore's balloon

Tomas Mor

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Gilmore and labour will face a tough test in Donegal. This might be one area where they hope to pick up a seat in GE as in many other areas along western seaboard. So a good showing in Donegal is a necessary start,with a good candidate, McBrearty who exposed garda corruption. A bad showing will dampen labour propects.
 


gijoe

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I do not think Donegal could be considered a Labour seat target in a GE. 1 FF FG SF would be the long odds on call.
 

Tomas Mor

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I don't think Labour have much to lose there. If they end up not too far behind FG, they can only gain. McBrearty would have to do very badly for it to be bad for Labour.

Even in a (hopefully imminent) General Election, McBrearty has only an outside chance.
That may be so, but it could be a good barometer for other areas where labour have no presence now, but are being pencilled in as possible gains in a GE. And McBrearty is a well known name with a track record of standing up to the state.
 

stalins granny

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Surely the question is would a poor showing by the fine gael candidate signal the end for enda? donegal is a very long odds seat for labour at the GE, in a by-election if McBrearty were to finish close to or ahead of the FG candidate then another heave would be on the cards
 

Toland

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Surely the question is would a poor showing by the fine gael candidate signal the end for enda? donegal is a very long odds seat for labour at the GE, in a by-election if McBrearty were to finish close to or ahead of the FG candidate then another heave would be on the cards
Even if it was at some stage a good idea to get rid of Enda (and a couple of months ago it was, imo), it ain't now. He'll probably be the next Taoiseach.
 

redhead101

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McBrearty has already been selected, and been out on the ground since for months at this stage.

Wouldn't say there's a huge expectation that he would actually win the by-election though. Labour got less than 3 per cent here in 2007. There has been a 20 per cent swing nationally to Labour since, but even that wouldn't secure a seat in the by-election. So I don't think Labour or Gilmore have much to lose in the by-election. Sure, it would be nice to do well, but the objective really is to get McBrearty's profile up ahead of the general.
 

Keith-M

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Surely the question is would a poor showing by the fine gael candidate signal the end for enda? donegal is a very long odds seat for labour at the GE, in a by-election if McBrearty were to finish close to or ahead of the FG candidate then another heave would be on the cards

Indeed, Labour has little chance of takling a seat in DSW in a GE and none in a by-election. Anything over 10% is a good result, 5%-10% would be an ok result, under 5% and that would be a poor result.

FG on the other hand should be expecting to take the seat in the by-election. They start with a lot more votes than SF and even if the court case has raised PD's profile, Labour transfers (which have always favoured FG over SF) should push them ahead. The interting thing here is how FF transfers go, assuming they are not in the final shake-out.
 

setanta

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Reasonable analysis there, Keith. The issue is one of expectations. Labour are not expected to win the by-election, so there will be little impact on our position nationally. The issue is, as you suggest, much more fraught for both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin ... for different reasons. Both have to win. A failure by either will have a serious impact within those parties.

Providign the Labour candidate polls creditably (plus 10% IMO) he'll be in the running for the final seat come the GE.
 

Murph

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If as some have predicted, McBrearty will take a lot of votes which otherwise would have gone to Sinn Fein, surely its Doherty who will get most of them back in transfers rather than FG.
 

White Rose

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Heard McBrearty on the radio this morning and he sounded terrible. His only line is that he took on the state.
 

civilserpant

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Indeed, Labour has little chance of takling a seat in DSW in a GE and none in a by-election. Anything over 10% is a good result, 5%-10% would be an ok result, under 5% and that would be a poor result.

FG on the other hand should be expecting to take the seat in the by-election. They start with a lot more votes than SF and even if the court case has raised PD's profile, Labour transfers (which have always favoured FG over SF) should push them ahead. The interting thing here is how FF transfers go, assuming they are not in the final shake-out.
I dont agree at all. Theres only one FG seat in a GE here, so its fruitless putting huge resources into a new candidate who'll be gone the minute a GE is called (maybe weeks later). FG will try and win this one, but clearly they only need ato hold their vote and ensure transfers to the other opposition candidates. Remember, these aren't 'Labour transfers' they're former FF voters looking for a new home. Civil war politics heartland.

FG's priority should be is to ensure FF dont win it, to precipitate a GE - which is the real prize. Which opposuition wins, is fairly phyrric.

The interesting thing will be to see Gilmore on the stump saying how labour will reduce the deficit and the first real proper 9ahem) debates.. assuming the budget doesn't overwhelm everything.
 
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LgCastell

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i dont think this will burst the labour bubble i think the percentage vote in this bye election would be distorted compared to what it would be in a ge with SF and Doherty having won the Court case i think you will see SF shares of the vote jump massively which would not be replicated in a GE

i think if labour could get into the double digits on this one it'd be a result and could make them a dark horse for the GE
 

Desperate Dan

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The balloon is slowly leaking air, and it looks like there is no one there to inflate it, going by what is being said in the papers. The media is slowly pulling away from their position a few weeks ago. The way they pulled away from the White Knight before it got embarrassing.
 

Desperate Dan

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Reasonable analysis there, Keith. The issue is one of expectations. Labour are not expected to win the by-election, so there will be little impact on our position nationally. The issue is, as you suggest, much more fraught for both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin ... for different reasons. Both have to win. A failure by either will have a serious impact within those parties.

Providign the Labour candidate polls creditably (plus 10% IMO) he'll be in the running for the final seat come the GE.
Looking at this week in Politics McBreaterty spout his one line I thought for one minute that I was out in Dunsink Lane years ago getting parts for my car.
Labour would want to clean up their act.:p:p
 

msteiner

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Both Donegal constituencies are hard republican constituencies, so SF will likely gain a large quantity of seats. I mean, for crying out loud, when SF's Doherty has 40% in the opinion polls, SF is likely to gain. I doubt that Labour will get more than a seat or two in both constituencies combine, and FG won't fare terribly well either. Don't be surprised if SF picks up as many as four seats between both Donegal constituencies.
 

mido

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Both Donegal constituencies are hard republican constituencies, so SF will likely gain a large quantity of seats. I mean, for crying out loud, when SF's Doherty has 40% in the opinion polls, SF is likely to gain. I doubt that Labour will get more than a seat or two in both constituencies combine, and FG won't fare terribly well either. Don't be surprised if SF picks up as many as four seats between both Donegal constituencies.
it would be a miracle if they do since they will only run one candidate in each unless they are parachuting in mcguinees and gildernew
 


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