Will Europe (& Ireland) block the US Iranian sanctions per the Cuba model ?

cyberianpan

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The US is essentially ordering all firms globally to follow its Iranian sanctions

Previously the EU ignored Cuba sanctions
Reuters -EU could impose blocking regulations if U.S. pulls out of Iran deal
Denis Chaibi, head of the Iranian taskforce at the EU’s external action service, said one of the options would be to restore “blocking regulations”, a system from 1996 that would protect its firms.

“We are looking at a number of possibilities. It is not complicated to do it legally in that the legal instrument exists, but it doesn’t require a huge internal debate,” Chaibi told a Euromoney conference in Paris.

The regulations were agreed in 1996 as a countermeasure to the U.S. extraterritorial economic sanctions against Cuba, which EU governments argued benefited U.S. foreign policy interests at the expense of European sovereignty.
Hours into his new job, Trump’s ambassador to Germany offends his hosts
In a tweet following President Trump’s announcement to leave the Iran nuclear deal, Grenell wrote that “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.” Germany, alongside France and Britain, wants to stick to the deal Trump is seeking to scrap. And while Grenell’s post may not deviate from the official White House stance on future European business dealings with Iran, the timing and tone struck some German politicians, journalists and businessmen as offensive and inappropriate.

If the EU seeks to block the sanctions, the US may try to fine the US entities of the EU companies

Is Europe willing to risk this battle ?

What's the stance of our government ?

Cyp
 


Dame_Enda

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The SWIFT (payment) system is theoretically controlled by a Belgian company, but in practice the US has been able to gain some control over it. When there used to be sanctions against Iran, SWIFT agreed to cut Iran off, but not to cut Russia off over Ukraine. So will SWIFT cave to pressure again and cut Iran off, or will the fact that this time the EU might not support sanctions cause them not to do so. The big threat also are planned Secondary-Sanctions, which would sanction non-US companies that trade with Iran.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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I’d say the EU Governments will ignore the US on this one. It’s only Trump they’ll think and we’ve only got to sit it out for 2 and a bit years. Then TTIP, Kyoto and Iran will all be back in play. How’s the wall coming along?
 

Catalpast

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Right now its too close to call

But I cant see either side winning by more than 5%

Its by no means won by either side as of today 9 May 2018.....
 

cyberianpan

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I’d say the EU Governments will ignore the US on this one. It’s only Trump they’ll think and we’ve only got to sit it out for 2 and a bit years. Then TTIP, Kyoto and Iran will all be back in play. How’s the wall coming along?
It is not merely adequate to ignore, as with the Cuba workaround, they would have to be legally active

cyp
 

cyberianpan

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France is indeed proposing this model

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/11/europe-prepares-countermeasures-against-us-iran-sanctions
Europe is prepared to introduce measures to nullify the effect of Donald Trump imposing sanctions on any non-US firm that continues to do business with Iran, the French government has said.

The warning from the French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, suggests Trump’s proposals to corral Europe into joining US foreign policy on Iran may lead to a severe backlash by EU firms and politicians, especially advocates of a stronger independent European foreign policy.
...On Friday Le Maire put forward three main proposals starting with an EU-wide blocking statute similar to an EU regulation passed in 1996 designed to nullify any US sanctions imposed on EU firms. The statute permitted European companies to ignore the US sanctions and said that any decisions by foreign courts based on the such sanctions would not be upheld in Europe. The US backed down before any sanctions were implemented.

“We want to reinforce this regulation and incorporate the recent decisions taken by the United States,” Le Maire said.
What will Ireland say ?

cyp
 

Connollyist a/c no.2

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I'm confused you say the EU but then you say Europe. Are you talking about the continent or the union? you arent making any sense.
 

Connollyist a/c no.2

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Iran should be allowed to have nukes. They're no danger to anyone, that's just imperialist propaganda. The United States dont want strong middle eastern countries, they want weak ones that can be invaded if they ever decide to give their oil to someone else.
 

owedtojoy

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The US is essentially ordering all firms globally to follow its Iranian sanctions

Previously the EU ignored Cuba sanctions
Reuters -EU could impose blocking regulations if U.S. pulls out of Iran deal

Hours into his new job, Trump’s ambassador to Germany offends his hosts



If the EU seeks to block the sanctions, the US may try to fine the US entities of the EU companies

Is Europe willing to risk this battle ?

What's the stance of our government ?

Cyp
If the EU is serious about peace in the Middle East, they have no option.

They took the wrong approach to Trump anyway - he only understands threats and punishment. They failed with the Paris Climate Agreement, and they would bound to fail here too.

They should have pointed out the probability of a Trade War, which this may lead to, as well as a Hot Israel-Iran war in the Middle East.
 

owedtojoy

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Iran should be allowed to have nukes. They're no danger to anyone, that's just imperialist propaganda. The United States dont want strong middle eastern countries, they want weak ones that can be invaded if they ever decide to give their oil to someone else.
Proliferation of nuclear weapons is a bad thing per se, but nobody stopped India, Pakistan, Israel or even South Africa from researching or building nuclear weapons.

Paradoxically, the USA is becoming again the world's largest oil producer, and, with renewable energy, oil is going to become less important.

If Iran were to go hell-for-leather to obtain a bomb, I would let that happen rather than go to war over it. After all, there are Israeli nuclear submarines that have Teheran targeted, so containment and Mutual Assured Destruction should prevent recourse to them in wartime.
 
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Dame_Enda

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One problem with that though is that unlike 1996 there are now 28 countries in the EU and many of the Eastern European members are always sucking up to the US because they want NATO to put bases on their territory to deter Russia e.g. Poland, the Baltic states. Also this idea would probably require unanimity.
 

Degeneration X

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If the EU is serious about peace in the Middle East, they have no option.

They took the wrong approach to Trump anyway - he only understands threats and punishment. They failed with the Paris Climate Agreement, and they would bound to fail here too.

They should have pointed out the probability of a Trade War, which this may lead to, as well as a Hot Israel-Iran war in the Middle East.
All of Macron's poodling came to nothing! The MSM gushing over the supposed "Trump Whisperer" look extra stupid in the past few days.
 

Degeneration X

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Iran should be allowed to have nukes. They're no danger to anyone, that's just imperialist propaganda. The United States dont want strong middle eastern countries, they want weak ones that can be invaded if they ever decide to give their oil to someone else.
The main thing is they don't want any more countries getting ideas of ridding themselves of the petrodollar, as long as Iran remains aloof from this system it will be considered the gravest of threats.
 

TomBreen

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The US is essentially ordering all firms globally to follow its Iranian sanctions

Previously the EU ignored Cuba sanctions
Reuters -EU could impose blocking regulations if U.S. pulls out of Iran deal

Hours into his new job, Trump’s ambassador to Germany offends his hosts



If the EU seeks to block the sanctions, the US may try to fine the US entities of the EU companies

Is Europe willing to risk this battle ?

What's the stance of our government ?

Cyp
Our Government will do what they are told by the EU and pretend that they are on the side of the US.
 

Connollyist a/c no.2

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Proliferation of nuclear weapons is a bad thing per se, but nobody stopped India, Pakistan, Israel or even South Africa from researching or building nuclear weapons.

Paradoxically, the USA is becoming again the world's largest oil producer, and, with renewable energy, it is going to become less important.

If Iran were to go hell-for-leather to obtain a bomb, I would let that happen rather than go to war over it. After all, there are Israeli nuclear submarines that have Teheran targeted, so containment and Mutual Assured Destruction should prevent recourse to them in wartime.
I would say nukes are good thing. Nuclear powers are more hesitant to go to war with eachother because they;re afraid it will escalate to a full on nuclear war. Nobody would ever be mad enough to nuke another nation, especially if that nation was a nuclear power.
 

owedtojoy

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All of Macron's poodling came to nothing! The MSM gushing over the supposed "Trump Whisperer" look extra stupid in the past few days.
I agree. Macron should have had more sense.

All seem to forget that both Germany and France opposed the Iraq War, and were derided as "Old Europe" and "Surrender Monkeys" by the likes of John Bolton, who is now high on the hog with Trump.

That they were far more perceptive than either the US or the UK in their assessment should not be forgotten lightly.
 

cyberianpan

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Der Spiegel editorial - Trump and Iran: Time for Europe to Join the Resistance
U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal marks the temporary suspension of the trans-Atlantic alliance. What now?
...The most shocking realization, however, is one that affects us directly: The West as we once knew it no longer exists. Our relationship to the United States cannot currently be called a friendship and can hardly be referred to as a partnership. President Trump has adopted a tone that ignores 70 years of trust. He wants punitive tariffs and demands obedience. It is no longer a question as to whether Germany and Europe will take part in foreign military interventions in Afghanistan or Iraq. It is now about whether trans-Atlantic cooperation on economic, foreign and security policy even exists anymore. The answer: No. It is impossible to overstate what Trump has dismantled in the last 16 months. Europe has lost its protective power. It has lost its guarantor of joint values. And it has lost the global political influence that it was only able to exert because the U.S. stood by its side. And what will happen in the remaining two-and-a-half years (or six-and-a-half years) of Trump's leadership? There is plenty of time left for further escalation.
 


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