• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

Will FF try to buy election again?


cashinhand

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 13, 2007
Messages
919
Here's the National Debt:

FinanceDublin.com - Irish Debt Clock

The FF-led government has a wafer-thin majority, there is doubt about the support of a number of non-whip-holding or independent TDs who are backed FF to date...

Three by-elections are due.

An election will happen sooner rather than later.

FF support is sliding downwards, or has bottomed out at an historically low base at best.

Surely this means the pressure will mount pre-budget to not really do anything about the out-of-control (not manageable) national debt and bank bailouts.

The resources aren't there to buy the electorate to the extent that was done pre 2007, but the conditions are there to let everything slide and not really tackle the debt.

We are borrowing money and... who exactly is receiving the money going to Anglo and NIB? (Still haven't that sussed!!)

So will FF let everything slide and try to be all things to all men, especially those who voted for them and financed them the last time out (over 60s, property developers, the civil service etc.).

In other words, will FF continue to be FF and continue to throw our money into the Celtic Fire?
 

eoghanacht

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 18, 2006
Messages
33,340
I'm sure they would love too. Thankfully our financial state won't allow it.
 

markeys

Active member
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
273
No. They'll take a stint in opposition and watch as FG has to call in the IMF.

Cue a big song and dance from FF about how they never did bankruptcy.


And the paddy will lap it all up and vote back in the gambler ahern, swear mary, clowen,dempsey, cullen,harney

Cue another two decades of FF lashing taxpayers money out to their friends while telling the rest of us we have to stump up taxes 'for the country'.

Well, paddy votes, paddy gets.
 

cashinhand

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 13, 2007
Messages
919
No. They'll take a stint in opposition and watch as FG has to call in the IMF.
But what will they do before they head into opposition?

Too tough a budget could be the difference between getting 50 seats, or just 35 or 40: turkeys voting for Christmas.

Too easy a budget and they can get Lenihan to do his barrister's trick of talking a good game while doing the opposite, and maybe get 55-60 seats, and as you imply, sit back and let the opposition deal with the riots.

Logic says it will be a tame budget which won't upset the FF base - aimed at surviving a massacre but making the country's plight worse.

An election before the budget would be in the country's interests, but not FF's.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,091
Wasn't there some report a while back about how the capital budget was underspent by about a billion in the first half of the year.

That's a nice little stash for spending to make it look like the economy is temporarily improving.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,091
Last edited:

cashinhand

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 13, 2007
Messages
919
Those who vote:

Over 60's: so won't touch state subsidisation of private pensions.

Those who don't vote:

Under 25's: so will cut basic social welfare payments and bring those on very low incomes into the tax net and hope for more emigration.

Those who finance FF:

The labyrinthine changes to legislation to support these people and their businesses is anyone's guess (FF have nearly 50 years of continuous practice): we'll find out about them later, when the horse has bolted. Perhaps some clause to help a pal sell off his stash of originals by Irish artists tax free here, or a tweak to tender rules which will cough up a couple of 100 million of windfall there.

Those who don't finance FF:

Small, innovative businesses: who will get feck all, and will have to board up.
 

johndodger

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2010
Messages
1,848
Probably. They have always done so before so why would they change their regular election strategy? Even if they know they are going to lose it would have the dual advatages:

1) that they may retain more seats, and
2) would bankrupt the country making things very difficult for the incoming government who would then get the blame.

The #1 FF policy is power at any cost i.e. do whatever it takes to get into or to stay in powet. Everything else is second to this.

It is also typical FF policy to direct ministers to underspend agreed budgets in anticipation of an election so that they can release this funding at the last minute and also to announce funcing for various projects over and over again whether or not the funding is actually forthcoming.

Remember that it's only 10 months since Brian Lenihan sucessfully put about the spin that the worse was over. Look where we are now.
 
D

Deleted member 17573

FF are certainly not trying to buy the election - just wait for the budget!! Now, as for FG, promising no tax increases and no cuts in the capital budget - that's what you'd call trying to buy an election!
 

cashinhand

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 13, 2007
Messages
919
Even if they know they are going to lose, it would have the dual advatages:

1) that they may retain more seats, and
2) would bankrupt the country making things very difficult for the incoming government who would then get the blame.

The #1 FF policy is power at any cost i.e. do whatever it takes to get into or to stay in powet. Everything else is second to this.

It is also typical FF policy to direct ministers to underspend agreed budgets in anticipation of an election so that they can release this funding at the last minute and also to announce funcing for various projects over and over again whether or not the funding is actually forthcoming.
That's it in a nutshell I reckon. Unless there is an election called in the next couple of months.

The #1 FF policy is power at any cost i.e. do whatever it takes to get into or to stay in powet. Everything else is second to this.
That's why B Ahern still thinks he was "successful". He bankrupted the country, but because FF won 3 elections with him as leader, he was - according to himself - a "success". Mr Ahern, apart from his contribution to the North after Reynolds et al's groundwork, was not a success. He was a failure. He won elections, but failed the country; and by any measure, the welfare of the country and its people is more important than winning elections.
 

delaad

Well-known member
Joined
May 20, 2007
Messages
722
Have they not started already? Swear I heard something about Reps payments being brought forward by a couple of months. Announcement was made during the Ploughing show, ironically enough(!).
 

johndodger

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2010
Messages
1,848
That's why B Ahern still thinks he was "successful". He bankrupted the country, but because FF won 3 elections with him as leader, he was - according to himself - a "success". Mr Ahern, apart from his contribution to the North after Reynolds et al's groundwork, was not a success. He was a failure. He won elections, but failed the country; and by any measure, the welfare of the country and its people is more important than winning elections.
Yes indeed. He seriously thinks he can win the Presidential Election.

FF are certainly not trying to buy the election - just wait for the budget!! Now, as for FG, promising no tax increases and no cuts in the capital budget - that's what you'd call trying to buy an election!
The harsher the budget the most likely they are to have a giveaway (or percieved giveaway) at the 2012 budget (the last one before a election if the Gov. runs full term). FF realise that people forget bad times very quickly when the right spin is put on them and a carrot is dangled in front of them. They will promise whatever it takes to stay in power.

It's interesting how many people have brought into the FF spin machine over the last 3 years or so. Browsing though threads on this board you could be forgiven for thinking that the Public Service was to blame for the financial crisis... nothing at all to do with FF mismanagement, the banks or developers.
 

kerdasi amaq

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 24, 2009
Messages
4,690
The bad times won't be over by 2012. People do not realise just how badly screwed this country is.
 

True Republican

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2008
Messages
4,067
FF will like to buy the next election however as the European Commissioner Olli Rehn is now telling Lenihan to implement stronger spending cuts than he'd wish to implement FF will not be able to buy the election.

So here's what may happen:

1) Croke Park deal will be ripped up in 2011 no matter who's in power as its completely unaffordable.
2) FF will cut welfare again in Decembers budget probably to about 189E per week, they don't have the balls to cut the dole to 170E per week.
3) The OAP will stay the same as backbenechers will have a hissy fit so that they can save their seats.


Listen up people the EU now owns our sorry ass and FF can't buy the next election.
 

johndodger

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2010
Messages
1,848
The bad times won't be over by 2012.
Who said it would be? The state of the economy has nothing to with it. FF's #1 priority is staying in power. They will do or say anything that helps them achieve that goal, even if it means making things worse for (percieved) short term gain prior to an election. Just under a year ago Lenihan said we were over the worst and on the road to recovery... and you know what some people actually believed him. FF do good spin, most of the time. Looking at the figures, we're not gonna be out of this mess for a generation.

People do not realise just how badly screwed this country is.
I think they do, though some believe (or choose to believe) the FF spin. There are a lot of ostriches out there.


FF will like to buy the next election however as the European Commissioner Olli Rehn is now telling Lenihan to implement stronger spending cuts than he'd wish to implement FF will not be able to buy the election.

So here's what may happen:

1) Croke Park deal will be ripped up in 2011 no matter who's in power as its completely unaffordable.
2) FF will cut welfare again in Decembers budget probably to about 189E per week, they don't have the balls to cut the dole to 170E per week.
3) The OAP will stay the same as backbenechers will have a hissy fit so that they can save their seats.


Listen up people the EU now owns our sorry ass and FF can't buy the next election.
You seriously think the EU will stop FF for doing what it takes to (attempt to) win the next election, or at least minimise losses?

If they attempt to tear up Croke Park there will be anarchy in the public service, believe me. The deal was week enough and public servants have suffered enough. We will not take any more.

As to points 2) and 3) I agree with you. FF's biggest voting base is now OAP's and they won't do anything to p1ss them off any more than they have already.

Traditionally, those on welfare don't tend to vote so they can cut what they like there, except now that there are so many professionals on welfare those voting patterns will no doubt change.
 
Top